Union Pacific (UNP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $129.07B
• Dividend Yield: 2.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.12M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: 1.06%
• EPS Growth: 8.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30,146
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): 3.08
• Shares Outstanding: 593,160,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,437,482
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,124,559
• PEG Ratio: 3.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.20
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.71
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.47
• 1Y Price Target: $264.29
• Price Target Upside: 22.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $234.00 ▲(8.15% Upside)

Union Pacific's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are offset by technical weaknesses and high leverage. The stock's valuation is fair, but market momentum is currently bearish.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Union Pacific's focus on operational efficiencies enhances productivity and cost management, supporting long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

Revenue Growth

Consistent freight revenue growth indicates strong demand and effective pricing strategies, contributing to sustained financial health and market leadership.

Debt Management

Effective debt management improves financial stability and flexibility, allowing for strategic investments and resilience against economic fluctuations.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses risks to financial stability and limits the company's ability to invest or weather economic downturns, potentially impacting long-term growth.

Free Cash Flow Decline

Declining free cash flow growth may hinder future investments and debt repayments, affecting the company's ability to sustain growth and operational improvements.

Volume Declines

Decreasing volumes, especially in intermodal and international sectors, could challenge revenue growth and margin expansion, impacting long-term performance.

Union Pacific Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is a leading North American transportation service provider, operating one of the largest freight railroad networks in the United States. The company primarily serves the western two-thirds of the country, offering a diverse range of transportation services that include intermodal, bulk commodities, and merchandise freight. Union Pacific plays a vital role in connecting markets and facilitating the movement of goods across various sectors, including agriculture, automotive, chemicals, coal, and industrial products.

How the Company Makes Money

Union Pacific generates revenue primarily through the transportation of freight. Its revenue model is built on several key streams: first, the movement of bulk commodities such as coal, agricultural products, and chemicals, which constitutes a significant portion of its earnings. Second, the company earns income from merchandise freight, which includes manufactured goods and consumer products. Third, intermodal services, where goods are transported in containers that can be moved seamlessly between rail and truck transport, also contribute notably to revenue. Additionally, Union Pacific has established partnerships with various industries to enhance logistics and supply chain efficiency, ensuring consistent demand for its services. Factors such as economic growth, infrastructure investments, and the overall health of the freight market significantly influence the company's earnings.

Union Pacific Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Union Pacific shows strong profitability with robust margins and stable revenue growth. However, high leverage and a significant decline in free cash flow growth present potential risks.

Income Statement

Union Pacific demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 45% and a net profit margin near 28% in the TTM. The revenue growth rate of 0.63% in the TTM indicates stability, though not aggressive growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 42% and 52% respectively, reflecting efficient operations. Overall, the income statement shows solid profitability and stable revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.88 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the return on equity is strong at 42.4%, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 25.2%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. Overall, while profitability is strong, the high leverage warrants caution.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a concerning decline in free cash flow growth by 74.14% in the TTM, which could impact future investments or debt repayments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.51, indicating moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.61, suggesting reasonable cash conversion. While cash generation is adequate, the decline in free cash flow growth is a notable weakness.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	24.55B	24.25B	24.12B	24.88B	21.80B	19.53B
Gross Profit	11.27B	11.04B	10.53B	11.21B	10.51B	9.18B
EBITDA	12.79B	12.50B	11.93B	12.64B	11.84B	10.33B
Net Income	7.05B	6.75B	6.38B	7.00B	6.52B	5.35B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	68.65B	67.72B	67.13B	65.45B	63.52B	62.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	808.00M	1.04B	1.07B	1.02B	1.01B	1.86B
Total Debt	32.85B	32.46B	34.18B	34.96B	31.49B	28.33B
Total Liabilities	51.34B	50.83B	52.34B	53.29B	49.36B	45.44B
Stockholders Equity	17.30B	16.89B	14.79B	12.16B	14.16B	16.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.01B	5.89B	4.77B	5.74B	6.10B	5.61B
Operating Cash Flow	9.73B	9.35B	8.38B	9.36B	9.03B	8.54B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.69B	-3.33B	-3.67B	-3.47B	-2.71B	-2.68B
Financing Cash Flow	-6.16B	-6.07B	-4.63B	-5.89B	-7.16B	-4.90B

Union Pacific Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 216.37
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UNP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 216.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 226.34, below the 50-day MA of 224.49, and below the 200-day MA of 226.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UNP.

Union Pacific Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CSX	―	$65.73B	23.19	22.60%	1.44%	-3.80%	-17.32%
FDX	―	$58.88B	14.58	14.98%	2.27%	1.14%	4.99%
UPS	―	$82.55B	14.89	33.67%	6.72%	-1.27%	-2.25%
ODFL	―	$28.61B	26.58	26.25%	0.81%	-5.54%	-12.26%
UNP	―	$129.07B	18.47	41.62%	2.50%	1.06%	8.21%
NSC	―	$68.40B	21.39	20.46%	1.87%	0.48%	22.88%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Union Pacific Corporate Events

Union Pacific’s Strong Q3 2025 Performance and Strategic Growth

Union Pacific Corporation is a leading rail transportation company operating in 23 western U.S. states, providing essential freight services that connect businesses and communities to the global economy.

Union Pacific’s Earnings Call: Record Revenue Amid Challenges

Union Pacific Corporation’s recent earnings call reflected a strong financial performance, marked by record-setting freight revenue and improved operational metrics. However, the company faces challenges due to volume declines and difficulties in the intermodal and energy markets, compounded by softer economic indicators.

Union Pacific Discusses Merger and Productivity Outlook

On September 10, 2025, Union Pacific‘s CEO V. James Vena and CFO Jennifer L. Hamann spoke at the Morgan Stanley 13th Annual Laguna Conference. Hamann highlighted expectations for strong productivity driven by network fluidity and noted that while mix is anticipated to improve, volume trends will be closely monitored. The company expects merger-related expenses of approximately $50 million and has paused share repurchases due to a merger agreement with Norfolk Southern Corporation.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNP) stock is a Buy with a $249.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Union Pacific stock, see the UNP Stock Forecast page.

Union Pacific Announces Merger with Norfolk Southern

On July 28, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation announced an Agreement and Plan of Merger with Norfolk Southern Corporation, involving a two-step merger process. This strategic move, unanimously approved by Union Pacific’s Board of Directors, aims to enhance Union Pacific’s market position by making Norfolk Southern a wholly owned subsidiary. The merger agreement outlines the conversion of Norfolk Southern’s stock into Union Pacific’s stock and cash, and includes provisions for the treatment of Norfolk Southern’s equity awards. The completion of the merger is contingent upon customary closing conditions, including shareholder and regulatory approvals. The merger is expected to significantly impact the company’s operations and industry positioning, with Norfolk Southern’s stock being delisted from the NYSE upon consummation.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNP) stock is a Buy with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Union Pacific stock, see the UNP Stock Forecast page.

Union Pacific Announces Merger with Norfolk Southern

On July 29, 2025, Union Pacific Corporation and Norfolk Southern Corporation announced a merger agreement to create America’s first transcontinental railroad. This strategic combination, valued at over $250 billion, aims to transform the U.S. supply chain, enhance freight competition, and unlock significant synergies, while preserving union jobs and promoting technological advancements.

The most recent analyst rating on (UNP) stock is a Buy with a $275.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Union Pacific stock, see the UNP Stock Forecast page.