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Transat AT V & VV
(TSX:TRZ)
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Rating:41Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.00
▼(-13.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/12/26
The score is primarily held down by stressed financial fundamentals—renewed losses, margin compression, weakening free cash flow, and a highly stressed balance sheet with negative equity. Technicals reinforce the weak setup with a clear downtrend despite oversold readings. Valuation remains difficult to support due to negative earnings, while the latest earnings call highlights ongoing operational and cost headwinds (fuel, competition, engine disruptions) that temper the benefit of improving bookings and added liquidity.
Positive Factors
Revenue Recovery
The sharp recovery in trailing revenue indicates that Transat has regained substantial demand relative to the pandemic-era trough. A larger operating base can support route economics, supplier negotiations, and fixed-cost absorption, although the recovery still needs to translate into durable profitability.
Negative Factors
Stressed Balance Sheet
Persistently negative equity and sizeable debt leave Transat with limited financial flexibility. This capital structure can constrain investment, increase dependence on external funding, and reduce the company’s ability to absorb weaker demand or prolonged operating disruption without further balance-sheet support.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Recovery
The sharp recovery in trailing revenue indicates that Transat has regained substantial demand relative to the pandemic-era trough. A larger operating base can support route economics, supplier negotiations, and fixed-cost absorption, although the recovery still needs to translate into durable profitability.
Read all positive factors
Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$82.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)48.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth1.37%
EPS Growth-175.89%
CountryCA
Employees5,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.58
Shares Outstanding41,201,435
10 Day Avg. Volume55,654
30 Day Avg. Volume48,444
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.13
Price to Sales (P/S)0.02
P/FCF Ratio1.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$1.97Price Target Upside-14.86% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-6.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$3.52B
Transat AT V & VV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Transat A.T. Inc. operates as an integrated global tourism enterprise, with its activities spanning both the Americas and Europe. The company provides a full range of travel services, including comprehensive vacation packages, hotel accommodations...
How the Company Makes Money
Transat A.T. generates revenue primarily by packaging, marketing, and selling leisure travel. Key revenue streams include (1) tour-operator and vacation package sales, where the company earns revenue from bundled products such as flights, hotels, ...
Transat AT V & VV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 10, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call was dominated by significant near-term financial and operational pressure from fuel prices, competitive promotions, Cuba-related revenue disruption, and Pratt & Whitney engine issues. Revenue, traffic, selected network performance, liquidity support, and strategic initiatives provided important positives, but they did not offset the sharp deterioration in adjusted EBITDA, net loss, cash flow, and balance-sheet leverage. Management sounded focused and confident in its mitigation actions, but the overall business outlook remained challenging.Positive Updates
Revenue and Traffic Growth Despite Challenging Conditions
Third-quarter revenue increased 3%, or $26 million, to $793 million, supported by higher capacity and traffic. Management said demand remained resilient despite persistently high fuel prices and a highly competitive environment.
Negative Updates
Fuel Costs Severely Pressured Profitability
Persistently high fuel prices were the main factor behind the quarter's results. The fuel price rose 56% year over year to US$3.74 per gallon from $2.40. Before the LASER contribution, fuel costs increased $105 million year over year; reported fuel expense increased $79 million, or 50%, to $238 million from $159 million.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Traffic Growth Despite Challenging Conditions
Third-quarter revenue increased 3%, or $26 million, to $793 million, supported by higher capacity and traffic. Management said demand remained resilient despite persistently high fuel prices and a highly competitive environment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q4, load factor is currently 0.6 percentage points ahead of the same time last year, yield is broadly in line, capacity increase is 2% year over year measured in available seat miles, and seats are below 2% compared to last year, strictly due to the removal of Cuba; there will not be any capacity increase for the upcoming winter, with no growth for next winter. Q4 fares are expected to increase 6%, versus 4.8% in Q3, while on the South program yields are expected to rebound in a more stable picture, load factor is similar to last year, and yields are up year over year, although not yet enough to cover the fuel increase. The new loyalty program remains on track for launch toward the end of 2026, with its 2027 contribution expected to be minimal and material contribution expected after the product matures over a period of 3 years; the first modernized aircraft is scheduled to enter service in the second half of 2027, with the bulk of cabin reconfiguration CapEx in 28 and minimal impact on CapEx year over year. Additional costs and revenue management inefficiencies from the GTF engine issues are expected to persist until the issue is fully resolved, which is not anticipated before 2028; Transat is hedged about to 65% for Q3 and a bit less for the first half of 27, and the additional $250 million loan matures in 2035 and bears interest of 1.22% for the first 3 years, and 3% thereafter.Transat AT V & VV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.46B | 3.40B | 3.28B | 3.05B | 1.64B | 124.82M |
| Gross Profit | 235.70M | 390.55M | 347.67M | 415.68M | -92.26M | -138.79M |
| EBITDA | 136.09M | 633.27M | 251.42M | 291.73M | -193.70M | -153.61M |
| Net Income | -227.57M | 241.92M | -114.03M | -25.29M | -445.32M | -389.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.49B | 2.57B | 2.75B | 2.57B | 2.27B | 1.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 450.75M | 594.92M | 260.34M | 435.65M | 322.54M | 433.19M |
| Total Debt | 1.55B | 1.56B | 2.15B | 1.89B | 1.75B | 1.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.35B | 3.22B | 3.64B | 3.35B | 3.02B | 2.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | -858.15M | -645.05M | -889.08M | -779.04M | -750.18M | -315.11M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.52M | 59.12M | -43.90M | 264.18M | -210.38M | -524.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 79.64M | 156.97M | 94.67M | 321.75M | -177.85M | -518.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -85.30M | -10.21M | -31.45M | -7.93M | -33.78M | 4.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -109.71M | -243.19M | -240.29M | -203.02M | 99.69M | 522.07M |
Transat AT V & VV Technical Analysis
Negative
2.31
Price Trends
2.29
Negative
2.42
Negative
2.50
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.08
Positive
20.59
Positive
21.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.24, above the 50-day MA of 2.29, and below the 200-day MA of 2.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.59 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TRZ.
Transat AT V & VV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$863.13M | 15.78 | 24.98% | 5.34% | -1.57% | 218.18% | |
65 Neutral | C$748.05M | 6.55 | 13.22% | 4.47% | -1.60% | 194.60% | |
63 Neutral | C$2.81B | 35.57 | 10.42% | 2.86% | 14.75% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | C$5.97B | 55.63 | 20.51% | 1.10% | 19.87% | ― | |
41 Neutral | C$82.81M | -0.34 | 31.06% | ― | 1.37% | -175.89% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:TRZ
Transat AT V & VV
1.89
-0.90
-32.26%
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Transat AT V & VV Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Transat Hit by $105 Million Fuel Cost Surge in Third Quarter
Negative
Aug 21, 2026
Transat A.T. Inc. reported that higher jet fuel prices added about $105 million to its third-quarter costs compared with the same period a year earlier, bringing the cumulative impact since the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz to approxim...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.