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NFI Group Inc
(TSX:NFI)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$23.50
▲(5.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score reflects improving fundamentals and a strong, guidance-raising earnings update (profitability and cash generation strengthening with solid backlog visibility), balanced against a debt-heavy balance sheet and relatively high valuation. Technicals are supportive but not decisive, as near-term momentum is mixed.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Guidance
Higher guidance and a large backlog provide multi-year revenue visibility, while active bids and forecast demand support continued order opportunities. This reduces reliance on any single quarter and indicates sustained public-transit demand.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
NFI remains dependent on a debt-heavy capital structure, which limits flexibility if bus demand, production or cash conversion weakens. Interest and refinancing needs could constrain investment and leave less protection against operating setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Guidance
Higher guidance and a large backlog provide multi-year revenue visibility, while active bids and forecast demand support continued order opportunities. This reduces reliance on any single quarter and indicates sustained public-transit demand.
Read all positive factors
NFI Group Inc (NFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.90B
Dividend Yield2.86%
Average Volume (3M)301.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.9
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth14.75%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees9,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.48
Shares Outstanding119,147,200
10 Day Avg. Volume387,535
30 Day Avg. Volume301,316
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio9.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$30.60Price Target Upside37.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.04B
NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NFI Group Inc., a prominent manufacturer and seller of buses, operates globally across North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region. Headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada, the company was established in 1930, adopting its cur...
How the Company Makes Money
NFI primarily makes money by (1) selling buses and coaches, (2) providing aftermarket parts and service, and (3) offering related support and technology services tied to fleet operations and vehicle electrification.
1) Vehicle sales (OEM manufact...
NFI Group Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed substantial operational and financial progress: double-digit revenue and unit growth, a 47% increase in adjusted EBITDA, a return to net earnings, record aftermarket results, stronger liquidity and a reduced leverage ratio. Management also raised full-year guidance and completed financing actions to improve the debt profile. Remaining challenges include sizable inventory/WIP, tariff and receivable timing risk, a battery recall cash impact, restructuring costs at ADL, and seasonal/competitive headwinds that could moderate sequential performance in the near term. On balance, the positives are material and clearly outweigh the listed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Unit Growth
Revenue increased 18.6% year-over-year to approximately $1.03 billion, driven by total deliveries of 1,232 equivalent units, a 14.5% YoY increase.
Negative Updates
Working Capital and Inventory Dynamics
Company unwound some Q1 inventory in Q2 benefiting cash, but inventory and WIP remain sizable and management expects to invest in working capital in Q3 to prepare for a seasonally busier Q4.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue and Unit Growth
Revenue increased 18.6% year-over-year to approximately $1.03 billion, driven by total deliveries of 1,232 equivalent units, a 14.5% YoY increase.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NFI raised its 2026 guidance to revenue of $4.0–4.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $385–415 million (implying 15%–24% growth vs. 2025) and cash CapEx of $55–65 million; this outlook is supported by a strong Q2 (1,232 equivalent units, +14.5% YoY; revenue ~$1.03B, +18.6%; adjusted EBITDA $104M, +47%; net earnings $17.4M vs. a $160.8M loss LY; operating cash flow $159.1M; free cash flow $20.7M) and a backlog of 14,483 EUs (~$12.5B, 6,271 firm / 8,212 options), with active North American public bids at 6,195 EUs and a five‑year demand forecast of 26,000 EUs. Management cautioned Q3 will likely see a modest sequential decline due to seasonal factory shutdowns and planned working‑capital build for a stronger Q4, noted liquidity of ~$520M and total leverage of 2.81x (target 1.5x–2.5x into 2027), and said the guidance incorporates current known U.S. and Canadian tariffs (including proposed Section 338) but not any future trade changes.NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.74B | 3.68B | 3.12B | 2.69B | 2.05B | 2.34B |
| Gross Profit | 343.80M | 275.03M | 349.44M | 220.76M | 49.13M | 235.59M |
| EBITDA | 168.20M | 89.67M | 220.29M | 47.69M | -144.23M | 165.34M |
| Net Income | 57.84M | -144.61M | -3.30M | -136.16M | -276.38M | -14.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.31B | 3.27B | 2.91B | 2.70B | 2.59B | 2.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 117.78M | 118.33M | 49.56M | 49.62M | 49.99M | 77.32M |
| Total Debt | 1.22B | 1.29B | 1.18B | 1.14B | 1.24B | 955.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.69B | 2.68B | 2.21B | 2.00B | 2.01B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 619.90M | 585.38M | 707.75M | 702.91M | 577.15M | 871.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 267.30M | 142.24M | -32.57M | -100.80M | -273.43M | 78.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 305.53M | 176.71M | 15.34M | -63.81M | -241.85M | 115.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -84.89M | -78.00M | -34.63M | -53.34M | -24.53M | -30.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -190.62M | -28.81M | 20.75M | 117.84M | 238.28M | -59.99M |
NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
22.27
Price Trends
24.30
Positive
23.05
Positive
19.81
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
56.76
Neutral
85.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.56, below the 50-day MA of 24.30, and above the 200-day MA of 19.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NFI.
NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$2.61B | 14.03 | 10.41% | 0.45% | 0.26% | 1.01% | |
73 Outperform | C$6.07B | 8.96 | 10.96% | 1.16% | 9.32% | 227.52% | |
67 Neutral | C$300.65M | 12.34 | 6.04% | 5.24% | 0.52% | 5.03% | |
65 Neutral | C$744.53M | 6.22 | 7.89% | 1.88% | -2.65% | ― | |
63 Neutral | C$2.90B | 36.86 | 10.42% | 2.86% | 14.75% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | C$6.66B | 61.22 | 20.51% | 1.00% | 19.87% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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NFI Group Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Highlights Zero-Emission Growth and Workforce Investment in 2025 Sustainability Report
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
NFI Group has released its 2025 Sustainability Report, detailing how environmental, social, governance, and business performance considerations are embedded across its global operations. The report showcases the company’s Sustainability Pled...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NFI Group posts stronger Q2 2026 results and raises full-year outlook
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
NFI Group reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, with deliveries rising 14.5% to 1,232 equivalent units and revenue climbing 18.6% to $1.03 billion. Gross profit, adjusted EBITDA and net earnings all improved significantly, supported by stro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.