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MTY Food Group
(TSX:MTY)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$34.00
▼(-6.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/11/26
The overall score reflects solid financial performance (healthy profitability and reliable free cash flow despite leverage and softer top-line) and an attractive valuation (low P/E and strong yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (bearish trend and momentum) and earnings-call risks tied to near-term pressures in U.S. demand and corporate-store transition costs, even as guidance and shareholder-return plans are supportive.
Positive Factors
Recurring Franchise Economics
Recurring franchise revenue and EBITDA growth reinforce MTY’s asset-light economic model, where royalties can expand with franchisee sales and system growth. This provides a more durable earnings base than relying primarily on company-operated restaurant revenue.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt remains larger than equity, which limits MTY’s financial flexibility if restaurant demand weakens or investment needs rise. Although leverage has improved, the debt-heavy structure can constrain acquisitions, reinvestment, and the speed of balance-sheet strengthening.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring Franchise Economics
Recurring franchise revenue and EBITDA growth reinforce MTY’s asset-light economic model, where royalties can expand with franchisee sales and system growth. This provides a more durable earnings base than relying primarily on company-operated restaurant revenue.
Read all positive factors
MTY Food Group (MTY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$728.87M
Dividend Yield4.51%
Average Volume (3M)105.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth-3.60%
EPS Growth234.75%
CountryCA
Employees6,868
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.78
Shares Outstanding22,841,360
10 Day Avg. Volume140,211
30 Day Avg. Volume105,204
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio5.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$36.25Price Target Upside-0.19% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.08B
MTY Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MTY Food Group Inc. is a prominent entity in the food service sector, managing an extensive portfolio of quick-service, fast-casual, and casual dining establishments. These operations span Canada, the United States, and various international terri...
How the Company Makes Money
MTY primarily makes money through a franchisor-led model built on recurring fees from franchisees, supplemented by sales from company-operated restaurants and other brand-related income. (1) Franchise royalties and fees: For franchised locations, ...
MTY Food Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 09, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive, supported by stable franchise margins, higher adjusted EPS, growing digital sales, strong free cash flow generation, a robust store-opening pipeline, debt reduction, and shareholder-return initiatives. These positives were tempered by a 2.7% decline in U.S. same-store sales, lower consolidated EBITDA, a 12.6% revenue decline in the Food Processing, Distribution and Retail segment, negative Q3 net openings, and ongoing traffic, cost, and corporate-store challenges.Positive Updates
Canada Same-Store Sales Improved to Essentially Flat
Canadian same-store sales sequentially improved to essentially flat in Q3. Management said Canadian consumers remained resilient, with mall concepts, breakfast places, and sushi concepts performing well.
Negative Updates
U.S. Same-Store Sales Declined 2.7%
U.S. same-store sales declined 2.7% in Q3. Management said the vast majority of U.S. brands had a rough quarter, including some top brands, and described U.S. consumer behavior as more volatile and unpredictable.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Canada Same-Store Sales Improved to Essentially Flat
Canadian same-store sales sequentially improved to essentially flat in Q3. Management said Canadian consumers remained resilient, with mall concepts, breakfast places, and sushi concepts performing well.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MTY expects results in the Food Processing, Distribution and Retail segment to show steady improvement in the coming quarters, healthy net new store openings by next quarter and in subsequent periods, the bulk of one-time corporate-store costs over the next 2 quarters, and associated benefits starting next quarter, including an estimated $2.5 million benefit next year; the previously discussed $10 million-ish benefit from closures remains valid, the Q4 pipeline should be probably our best quarter ever in terms of number of store openings, and 2027 should be strong as well. MTY aims to return to being a pure play franchisor with maybe 1% of its stores being corporate, restore the normal course issuer bid, increase the quarterly dividend to $0.50, and pursue a substantial issuer bid, which is more likely than not; management expects the pace of franchising to accelerate, does not expect to increase expenses for brand investment, is comfortable to 3x EBITDA, and expects to see some action on brand portfolio optimization probably in 2027.MTY Food Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.13B | 1.19B | 1.16B | 1.17B | 716.52M | 551.90M |
| Gross Profit | 255.61M | 355.67M | 419.18M | 340.98M | 255.40M | 300.62M |
| EBITDA | 257.29M | 289.69M | 165.34M | 263.02M | 165.60M | 169.80M |
| Net Income | 109.22M | 118.99M | 24.17M | 104.08M | 74.82M | 85.64M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.46B | 2.51B | 2.59B | 2.68B | 2.33B | 1.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.55M | 51.99M | 50.41M | 58.90M | 59.48M | 61.23M |
| Total Debt | 1.06B | 1.52B | 1.22B | 1.30B | 1.08B | 834.28M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.56B | 1.65B | 1.78B | 1.87B | 1.60B | 1.26B |
| Stockholders Equity | 899.26M | 856.42M | 801.84M | 811.41M | 723.41M | 647.64M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 153.02M | 169.47M | 177.08M | 152.42M | 130.14M | 132.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 166.53M | 182.98M | 204.81M | 184.59M | 142.80M | 139.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.41M | -7.82M | -23.54M | -319.66M | -258.42M | 7.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -137.86M | -173.67M | -186.78M | 135.94M | 105.30M | -129.58M |
MTY Food Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
36.32
Price Trends
32.82
Negative
34.36
Negative
36.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
49.57
Neutral
42.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MTY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 36.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.52, above the 50-day MA of 32.82, and below the 200-day MA of 36.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:MTY.
MTY Food Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$48.54B | 18.17 | 34.86% | 3.38% | 5.56% | 38.79% | |
68 Neutral | C$728.87M | 6.68 | 12.54% | 4.51% | -3.60% | 234.75% | |
68 Neutral | C$854.74M | 15.08 | 25.64% | 5.37% | 2.77% | 101.33% | |
67 Neutral | C$358.67M | 11.66 | 10.09% | 8.20% | -0.69% | -2.98% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
40 Underperform | C$2.99M | -0.22 | 41.50% | ― | -25.68% | -47.57% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:MTY
MTY Food Group
31.91
-0.76
-2.31%
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TSE:FOOD
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0.03
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TSE:AW
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35.73
0.39
1.11%
MTY Food Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
MTY Food Group Q3 Profit Dips as Corporate Store Closures Reshape Network
Neutral
Oct 9, 2026
MTY reported third-quarter segment profits of $59.9 million and net income of $24.8 million, with earnings per diluted share slipping to $1.08 from $1.22 a year earlier as revenue declined to $277.7 million. Operating cash flow fell 4% to $37.6 mi...
Financial Disclosures
MTY Food Group Schedules Call on 2026 Q3 Results
Neutral
Oct 2, 2026
MTY Food Group Inc. will host a conference call for analysts, investors and other interested parties on October 9, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss its third‑quarter results, which will be released earlier that day.Participants can...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.