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Spin Master (TOY) AI Stock Analysis
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Spin Master
(TSX:TOY)
The score is driven primarily by strong recent cash flow and improving balance-sheet flexibility, partially offset by currently negative earnings/ROE and profit volatility. Technical indicators are mostly neutral and valuation is less supportive due to a negative P/E, while earnings-call commentary adds moderate support via reiterated guidance but highlights meaningful near-term uncertainties (tariffs, Q4 visibility, and a nonrecurring movie benefit).
Spin Master (TOY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 2.03B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.35%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 115.19K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -13.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.02
- Revenue Growth
- -1.59%
- EPS Growth
- -291.62%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 2,500
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Leisure
Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Spin Master Corp. functions as a leading children's entertainment enterprise, engaged in the conceptualization, design, production, licensing, and commercialization of a diverse portfolio of toys, entertainment properties, and digital games. Its oper...
How the Company Makes Money
Spin Master primarily makes money by selling toys, games, and related products to retailers and distributors, and by leveraging its intellectual property (IP) across entertainment and licensing. Its core revenue stream is wholesale revenue from toys...
Spin Master Earnings Call Summary
The call was broadly constructive. Core brands delivered growth, year-to-date adjusted EBITDA increased 7%, cash flow and leverage improved, strategic initiatives gained traction, and full-year guidance was reiterated. These positives were tempered by stable rather than accelerating consolidated revenue, lower reported margins, impairments, declines in Toy and Digital Games reported results, a roughly $30 million tariff headwind and uncertainty around fourth-quarter replenishment demand and the nonrecurrence of the 2026 movie benefit.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Spin Master reiterated its 2026 guidance for stable to low single-digit growth in revenues and mid- to upper single-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA; for the fourth quarter, it is targeting modest revenue and similar adjusted EBITDA growth, although it said it is too soon to provide specifics on where it expects to land within its full year guidance range, with 50% of POS occurring in the fourth quarter and a healthy majority of fourth-quarter orders being domestic replenishment rather than direct import. Management expects about $25 million of revenue and EBITDA directly associated with the PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie this year and said, for modeling purposes, to assume that doesn't reoccur as it heads into '27; it also said Hapiko distribution will widen in the back half of next year and that it will start to ship wider as it gets deeper into 2027.
Spin Master Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are mixed: strong TTM revenue rebound (+34.2%) and standout cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$455.8M; free cash flow ~$365.7M) support the story, but profitability is currently negative (TTM net income -$110.7M; -5.2% net margin) and ROE is negative, indicating earnings volatility despite a manageable leverage profile (debt-to-equity ~0.28).
Income Statement
44NeutralBalance Sheet
61PositiveCash Flow
76Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.11B | 2.15B | 2.26B | 1.90B | 2.02B | 2.04B |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 1.09B | 1.19B | 1.04B | 1.10B | 1.06B |
| EBITDA | 130.71M | 58.30M | 365.80M | 399.90M | 369.10M | 396.20M |
| Net Income | -110.67M | -151.10M | 81.90M | 151.40M | 261.30M | 198.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.39B | 2.40B | 2.63B | 1.99B | 1.81B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.90M | 104.41M | 233.50M | 705.70M | 644.30M | 562.70M |
| Total Debt | 349.80M | 457.97M | 534.40M | 62.10M | 71.20M | 73.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.14B | 1.18B | 1.23B | 570.60M | 553.30M | 684.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.25B | 1.22B | 1.40B | 1.42B | 1.25B | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 365.74M | 239.01M | 279.88M | 202.23M | 212.48M | 385.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 455.80M | 311.46M | 312.25M | 230.68M | 241.98M | 410.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -220.64M | -205.23M | -1.02B | -137.80M | -106.05M | -151.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -313.69M | -233.92M | 257.23M | -44.51M | -19.70M | -16.32M |
Spin Master Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.85, above the 50-day MA of 20.29, and above the 200-day MA of 19.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TOY.
Spin Master Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:AW71Outperform
TSE:MTY68Neutral- TSE:TOY60Neutral
TSE:CTC60Neutral
TSE:DOO53Neutral
TSE:DII.B41Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:AW | 71Outperform | CAD 866.46M | 15.28 | 25.64% | 5.30% | 2.77% | 101.33% |
| TSE:MTY | 68Neutral | CAD 741.43M | 6.79 | 12.54% | 4.44% | -3.60% | 234.75% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| TSE:TOY | 60Neutral | CAD 2.05B | -13.30 | -9.16% | 2.35% | -1.59% | -291.62% |
| TSE:CTC | 60Neutral | CAD 10.48B | 15.66 | 11.53% | 3.27% | 1.05% | -6.66% |
| TSE:DOO | 53Neutral | CAD 6.08B | 56.18 | 20.51% | 1.13% | 19.87% | ― |
| TSE:DII.B | 41Neutral | CAD 44.87M | -0.24 | 133.25% | ― | -16.18% | 18.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:TOY | Spin Master | 20.44 | 0.27 | 1.34% | |
| TSE:DOO | Brp Inc | 85.39 | -1.31 | -1.52% | |
| TSE:CTC | Canadian Tire Corp | 220.22 | -19.03 | -7.95% | |
| TSE:MTY | Mty Food Group | 32.46 | -0.36 | -1.10% | |
| TSE:DII.B | Dorel Industries Class B | 1.29 | -0.31 | -19.38% | |
| TSE:AW | A & W Food Services of Canada Inc. | 36.22 | 1.69 | 4.89% |
Spin Master Corporate Events
Spin Master Posts Steady Q3 Results as Cash Flow and Key Franchises Strengthen
PositiveSpin Master reported essentially flat third-quarter 2026 revenue at $732.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA holding steady and margins unchanged despite a notable drop in operating income and net income versus a year earlier. Strong operating cash flow,...
Spin Master to Boost Investor Outreach at Goldman Sachs and CIBC Conferences
PositiveSpin Master will engage with institutional investors at two major upcoming conferences, underscoring its efforts to deepen capital markets relationships as it grows its global entertainment footprint. CEO Christina Miller and CFO Jonathan Roiter will...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026