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Spin Master
(TSX:TOY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$21.50
▲(6.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strong recent cash flow and improving balance-sheet flexibility, partially offset by currently negative earnings/ROE and profit volatility. Technical indicators are mostly neutral and valuation is less supportive due to a negative P/E, while earnings-call commentary adds moderate support via reiterated guidance but highlights meaningful near-term uncertainties (tariffs, Q4 visibility, and a nonrecurring movie benefit).
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Robust operating and free cash flow provide internal funding for product development, acquisitions, debt reduction and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion despite reported losses also lowers near-term financial stress and supports strategic reinvestment across Spin Master’s brands and digital platforms.
Negative Factors
Unprofitable and Volatile Earnings
Recent losses and negative returns indicate that strong gross margins have not yet translated into dependable earnings. Earnings volatility can constrain reinvestment and shareholder returns, while impairments and content amortization create additional uncertainty around sustainable operating profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Robust operating and free cash flow provide internal funding for product development, acquisitions, debt reduction and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion despite reported losses also lowers near-term financial stress and supports strategic reinvestment across Spin Master’s brands and digital platforms.
Read all positive factors
Spin Master (TOY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.05B
Dividend Yield2.35%
Average Volume (3M)114.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth-1.59%
EPS Growth-291.62%
CountryCA
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.10
Shares Outstanding31,713,453
10 Day Avg. Volume140,700
30 Day Avg. Volume114,796
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio5.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$23.90Price Target Upside17.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.15B
Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Spin Master Corp. functions as a leading children's entertainment enterprise, engaged in the conceptualization, design, production, licensing, and commercialization of a diverse portfolio of toys, entertainment properties, and digital games. Its o...
How the Company Makes Money
Spin Master primarily makes money by selling toys, games, and related products to retailers and distributors, and by leveraging its intellectual property (IP) across entertainment and licensing. Its core revenue stream is wholesale revenue from to...
Spin Master Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly constructive. Core brands delivered growth, year-to-date adjusted EBITDA increased 7%, cash flow and leverage improved, strategic initiatives gained traction, and full-year guidance was reiterated. These positives were tempered by stable rather than accelerating consolidated revenue, lower reported margins, impairments, declines in Toy and Digital Games reported results, a roughly $30 million tariff headwind and uncertainty around fourth-quarter replenishment demand and the nonrecurrence of the 2026 movie benefit.Positive Updates
Year-to-Date EBITDA Growth and Reaffirmed Guidance
Year-to-date revenue was stable and adjusted EBITDA increased 7%. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance for stable to low single-digit revenue growth and mid- to upper-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Timing Issues
Underlying core-brand growth was offset by timing issues from the prior call, including an approximately $40 million pull-forward of gross product sales from the third quarter into the second quarter in Toy and approximately $12 million of prior-year Digital Games revenue from licensing certain games to partners.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-to-Date EBITDA Growth and Reaffirmed Guidance
Year-to-date revenue was stable and adjusted EBITDA increased 7%. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance for stable to low single-digit revenue growth and mid- to upper-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Spin Master reiterated its 2026 guidance for stable to low single-digit growth in revenues and mid- to upper single-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA; for the fourth quarter, it is targeting modest revenue and similar adjusted EBITDA growth, although it said it is too soon to provide specifics on where it expects to land within its full year guidance range, with 50% of POS occurring in the fourth quarter and a healthy majority of fourth-quarter orders being domestic replenishment rather than direct import. Management expects about $25 million of revenue and EBITDA directly associated with the PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie this year and said, for modeling purposes, to assume that doesn't reoccur as it heads into '27; it also said Hapiko distribution will widen in the back half of next year and that it will start to ship wider as it gets deeper into 2027.Spin Master Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.11B | 2.15B | 2.26B | 1.90B | 2.02B | 2.04B |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 1.09B | 1.19B | 1.04B | 1.10B | 1.06B |
| EBITDA | 130.71M | 58.30M | 365.80M | 399.90M | 369.10M | 396.20M |
| Net Income | -110.67M | -151.10M | 81.90M | 151.40M | 261.30M | 198.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.39B | 2.40B | 2.63B | 1.99B | 1.81B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 38.90M | 104.41M | 233.50M | 705.70M | 644.30M | 562.70M |
| Total Debt | 349.80M | 457.97M | 534.40M | 62.10M | 71.20M | 73.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.14B | 1.18B | 1.23B | 570.60M | 553.30M | 684.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.25B | 1.22B | 1.40B | 1.42B | 1.25B | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 365.74M | 239.01M | 279.88M | 202.23M | 212.48M | 385.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 455.80M | 311.46M | 312.25M | 230.68M | 241.98M | 410.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -220.64M | -205.23M | -1.02B | -137.80M | -106.05M | -151.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -313.69M | -233.92M | 257.23M | -44.51M | -19.70M | -16.32M |
Spin Master Technical Analysis
Neutral
20.28
Price Trends
20.29
Positive
20.43
Positive
19.49
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Positive
45.89
Neutral
44.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.85, below the 50-day MA of 20.29, and above the 200-day MA of 19.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TOY.
Spin Master Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | C$741.43M | 6.79 | 12.54% | 4.44% | -3.60% | 234.75% | |
68 Neutral | C$866.46M | 15.28 | 25.64% | 5.30% | 2.77% | 101.33% | |
63 Neutral | C$10.48B | 15.66 | 11.53% | 3.27% | 1.05% | -6.66% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | C$2.05B | -13.30 | -9.16% | 2.35% | -1.59% | -291.62% | |
53 Neutral | C$6.08B | 56.18 | 20.51% | 1.13% | 19.87% | ― | |
44 Neutral | C$44.87M | -0.24 | 133.25% | 123.02% | -16.18% | 18.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:TOY
Spin Master
20.44
0.27
1.34%
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Spin Master Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Spin Master Posts Steady Q3 Results as Cash Flow and Key Franchises Strengthen
Positive
Oct 29, 2026
Spin Master reported essentially flat third-quarter 2026 revenue at $732.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA holding steady and margins unchanged despite a notable drop in operating income and net income versus a year earlier. Strong operating cash fl...
Business Operations and Strategy
Spin Master to Boost Investor Outreach at Goldman Sachs and CIBC Conferences
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Spin Master will engage with institutional investors at two major upcoming conferences, underscoring its efforts to deepen capital markets relationships as it grows its global entertainment footprint. CEO Christina Miller and CFO Jonathan Roiter w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.