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Spin Master
(TSX:TOY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$21.50
▲(6.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is primarily supported by strong operating and free cash flow and a balance sheet with moderate, improving leverage. Offsetting this is a meaningful profitability decline into net losses and negative ROE, which weighs on financial quality and results in a negative P/E. Technically, the stock shows some longer-term support (above 50/100/200-day averages) but near-term weakness (below the 20-day average).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: supports reinvestment, brand marketing, product refreshes and continued debt reduction even while accounting earnings are negative, preserving strategic optionality through multi-quarter headwinds.
Negative Factors
Consecutive net losses
Moving from sustained profits to multi-period net losses erodes retained earnings and investor returns, constrains reinvestment capacity over time, and may force tougher cost or portfolio decisions. Persistent accounting losses can also limit strategic initiatives despite cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating and free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: supports reinvestment, brand marketing, product refreshes and continued debt reduction even while accounting earnings are negative, preserving strategic optionality through multi-quarter headwinds.
Read all positive factors
Spin Master (TOY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$1.94B
Dividend Yield2.42%
Average Volume (3M)117.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth-8.09%
EPS Growth-196.45%
CountryCA
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLeisure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.89
Shares Outstanding31,500,000
10 Day Avg. Volume95,739
30 Day Avg. Volume117,638
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.15
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio5.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$24.25Price Target Upside19.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.16B
Spin Master Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Spin Master Corp. functions as a leading children's entertainment enterprise, engaged in the conceptualization, design, production, licensing, and commercialization of a diverse portfolio of toys, entertainment properties, and digital games. Its o...
How the Company Makes Money
Spin Master primarily makes money by selling toys and games to retailers and distributors (and, where applicable, through e-commerce), with revenue recognized from the wholesale of physical products across its portfolio of brands and product lines...
Spin Master Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: clear operational and financial strengths (strong digital profitability, entertainment engagement, solid cash generation, inventory reductions, and strategic product wins) and a constructive 2026 plan with conservative but positive guidance, yet material near-term headwinds remain (tariff-driven toy demand disruption, a significant goodwill impairment at Melissa & Doug, amortization pressure in Entertainment, Q1 EBITDA weakness and freight/geopolitical risk). Highlights and lowlights are roughly balanced — management is optimistic about recovery and long-term growth but acknowledges short-term volatility and risks.Positive Updates
Digital Games Revenue and Profitability Growth
Digital Games revenue increased 16% in 2025 with adjusted operating income up 24%, driven by Toca Boca and Piknik improvements, increased partnership revenue, higher ARPU and better retention; management also referenced 'more than 20%' growth in digital in commentary.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Driven Toy Sales Decline
Toy gross product sales declined 8% for full-year 2025 (management attributed this to an approximately 12% reduction in retailer inventory levels and disrupted retail order timing tied to tariffs), with expectations of a significant year-over-year Toy decline in Q1 2026 and a double-digit consolidated decrease in Q1.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Digital Games Revenue and Profitability Growth
Digital Games revenue increased 16% in 2025 with adjusted operating income up 24%, driven by Toca Boca and Piknik improvements, increased partnership revenue, higher ARPU and better retention; management also referenced 'more than 20%' growth in digital in commentary.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Spin Master guided 2026 to stable-to-low single‑digit revenue growth and mid‑to‑upper single‑digit adjusted EBITDA growth — implying roughly 50–100 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion — with seasonality skewed heavily to H2 (more than 85% of full‑year adjusted EBITDA), Q1 expected to produce negligible EBITDA and a double‑digit consolidated YoY decline driven by Toys; Toys are expected to be split ~30/70 H1/H2 (Q1 a low‑double‑digit YoY decline, Q2 high‑teens YoY), Entertainment to see healthy growth (including ~ $20M of PAW Patrol distribution revenue recognized in Q3), Digital Games modest growth, and company‑level headwinds including a ~ $22M increase in depreciation & amortization in cost of sales (including a $12M entertainment amortization hit in Q1) with total D&A around $160M; cashflow and capital guidance includes CapEx ≈ $150M (≈ $25M of that for enterprise software), lease payments just under $40M, finance costs similar to 2025, and a balanced capital allocation approach maintaining the dividend, renewing share buybacks and pursuing M&A.Spin Master Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
77
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.10B | 2.15B | 2.26B | 1.90B | 2.02B | 2.04B |
| Gross Profit | 1.10B | 1.09B | 1.19B | 1.04B | 1.10B | 1.06B |
| EBITDA | 155.88M | 58.30M | 279.50M | 302.90M | 334.70M | 325.60M |
| Net Income | -84.21M | -151.10M | 81.90M | 151.40M | 261.30M | 198.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.22B | 2.40B | 2.63B | 1.99B | 1.81B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.42M | 104.41M | 233.50M | 705.70M | 644.30M | 562.70M |
| Total Debt | 360.71M | 457.97M | 534.40M | 62.10M | 71.20M | 73.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.04B | 1.18B | 1.23B | 570.60M | 553.30M | 684.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.18B | 1.22B | 1.40B | 1.42B | 1.25B | 1.05B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 348.94M | 239.01M | 279.88M | 202.23M | 212.48M | 385.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 415.96M | 311.46M | 312.25M | 230.68M | 241.98M | 410.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -192.23M | -205.23M | -1.02B | -137.80M | -106.05M | -151.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -299.45M | -233.92M | 257.23M | -44.51M | -19.70M | -16.32M |
Spin Master Technical Analysis
Negative
20.28
Price Trends
21.07
Negative
19.94
Negative
19.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Positive
34.74
Neutral
15.27
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.19, below the 50-day MA of 21.07, and above the 200-day MA of 19.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TOY.
Spin Master Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | C$863.13M | 15.78 | 24.98% | 5.34% | -1.57% | 218.18% | |
65 Neutral | C$748.05M | 6.55 | 13.22% | 4.47% | -1.60% | 194.60% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | C$1.94B | -16.07 | -6.74% | 2.42% | -8.09% | -196.45% | |
58 Neutral | C$9.94B | 14.61 | 11.53% | 3.48% | 1.05% | -6.66% | |
50 Neutral | C$5.97B | 55.63 | 20.51% | 1.10% | 19.87% | ― | |
44 Neutral | C$54.09M | -0.27 | 133.25% | 123.02% | -16.18% | 18.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:TOY
Spin Master
19.83
-1.53
-7.15%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.