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Canadian Tire Corp Ltd (TSE:CTC)
TSX:CTC
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Canadian Tire (CTC) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CTC

Canadian Tire

(TSX:CTC)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$268.00
▲(10.63% Upside)
Canadian Tire's overall stock score reflects stable financial performance and strong earnings call highlights. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, but the valuation is reasonable with a good dividend yield. Strategic advancements and loyalty program growth are positive, though leverage and cash conversion efficiency require attention.

Canadian Tire (CTC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Canadian Tire Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCanadian Tire Corporation, Limited provides a range of retail goods and services in Canada. It operates in three segments: Retail, CT REIT, and Financial Services. The Retail segment retails automotive maintenance products and accessories, parts, tires as well as automotive repair and roadside assistance; kitchen, home organization, decor and essentials, home electronics, pet, and cleaning and consumable products; tools, hardware, paint, electrical, plumbing, home environment, and smart home products; and outdoor recreation, exercise, footwear and apparel, hunting, fishing, camping, and sporting goods. It also retails Christmas trees, lights and decor, Halloween décor and costumes, yard care and maintenance, and snow removal equipment; patio furniture, barbeques, pools, trampolines, outdoor power equipment and tools, plants and gardening supplies; backyard amusement, pool fun, and toys and games; gasoline; sporting goods and active wear; casual and industrial apparel and footwear; and outerwear, base-layer, and workwear. This segment offers its products under the Canadian Tire, Canadian Tire Gas, Mark's, PartSource, Helly Hansen, Party City, and SportChek brand names. This segment also participates in loyalty programs, as well as sells its products online. The CT REIT segment operates as a closed-end real estate investment trust that holds a portfolio of 368 properties comprising Canadian Tire stores, Canadian Tire anchored retail developments, industrial properties, a mixed-use commercial property, and development properties. The Financial Services segment provides financial and other ancillary products and services, including consumer credit cards, in-store financing, insurance products, and retail and broker deposits; and savings accounts and guaranteed investment certificates. Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCanadian Tire generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of retail products in its stores and online. Its key revenue streams include automotive parts and accessories, home improvement products, outdoor and leisure equipment, and sports apparel. Additionally, CTC earns income through its financial services division, which provides credit products and earns interest. The company benefits from a loyal customer base through its Canadian Tire Money loyalty program, which encourages repeat business. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and brands also contribute to its earnings, allowing CTC to offer exclusive products and promotions that drive sales.

Canadian Tire Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance and strategic advancements in AI and loyalty programs, though challenges such as the Canada Post strike and financial services pressures present hurdles. The company remains cautiously optimistic amid a dynamic consumer landscape.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth
Retail revenue excluding Petroleum increased by nearly 6%, and diluted earnings per share grew nearly 7% year-over-year.
Loyalty Program Expansion
Loyalty engagement increased with over 7 million members, and the Triangle Rewards program formed new partnerships with Tim Hortons, RBC, and WestJet, expanding its value proposition.
SportChek Performance
SportChek's comparable sales grew 4.2%, driven by strong performance in back-to-school and back-to-hockey categories.
AI and Technology Advancements
The AI pricing tool, DAVID, is optimizing promotional programs and regular pricing, contributing to improved margins across banners.
Retail Gross Margin Improvement
Retail gross margin dollars were up nearly 8%, with a margin rate improvement of 57 basis points year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Canada Post Strike Impact
The Canada Post labor dispute affected flyer distribution and sales, particularly impacting September performance.
Financial Services Pressure
CTFS IBT declined $26 million year-over-year due to higher SG&A and increased write-offs.
Inventory Concerns
Dealers have slightly elevated inventory levels for spring/summer categories, particularly in climate control products.
Weather-Dependent Sales
Sales growth in Q4 is dependent on weather conditions and the stabilization of Canada Post services.
Company Guidance
During Canadian Tire Corporation's third-quarter 2025 earnings call, management provided guidance emphasizing the company's strong performance and strategic investments under the True North strategy. Key metrics included a nearly 7% growth in diluted earnings per share, a 1.8% increase in consolidated comparable sales, and a 19% year-over-year rise in retail IBT. The company reported over 7 million loyalty members, reflecting a 3% growth, with loyalty penetration up by 117 basis points to 55.2%. Retail revenue, excluding Petroleum, saw a growth of close to 6%. The retail gross margin rate improved by 57 basis points year-over-year, supported by the implementation of the AI pricing tool, DAVID, which contributed to an almost 8% increase in retail gross margin dollars. Management expressed cautious optimism, acknowledging a dynamic consumer demand landscape and macroeconomic uncertainties, while also outlining 2026 capital allocation priorities, including planned share repurchases of up to $400 million and a dividend increase.

Canadian Tire Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Canadian Tire shows stable financial performance with strong ROE and efficient operations. However, challenges such as decreasing revenue growth and higher leverage pose potential risks. The company needs to enhance operational efficiency and strengthen cash flow.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Canadian Tire has demonstrated stable revenue generation, with a slight decrease in total revenue in the recent TTM period compared to the previous year. The Gross Profit Margin is healthy at 33.74% for TTM, showing efficient cost management. The Net Profit Margin is moderate at 5.21%, but there has been a decline in both EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate has shown volatility, which could be a concern.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 1.42 for TTM, which indicates a higher leverage but manageable given industry standards. Return on Equity is robust at 14.22%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholders' equity. The Equity Ratio stands at 26.32%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in equity strength.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.90, showing good cash conversion from earnings. However, the Free Cash Flow has decreased compared to the previous year, resulting in a negative Free Cash Flow Growth Rate. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 1.17, indicating a decent level of free cash flow generation relative to net income, but there is potential to improve cash reserves further.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue16.36B16.36B16.66B17.81B16.29B14.87B
Gross Profit5.46B5.63B5.70B5.74B5.48B4.77B
EBITDA1.66B1.65B1.64B2.22B2.23B1.82B
Net Income761.40M887.70M213.30M1.04B1.13B751.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets21.47B22.24B21.98B22.10B21.80B20.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.19B575.90M488.40M490.10M2.34B1.93B
Total Debt7.62B7.91B8.81B7.72B7.09B7.16B
Total Liabilities14.70B15.15B15.53B15.06B15.29B14.54B
Stockholders Equity5.83B6.16B5.55B5.62B5.12B4.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.11B1.49B772.80M-146.00M1.11B2.14B
Operating Cash Flow1.63B2.06B1.35B466.50M1.74B2.44B
Investing Cash Flow1.05B-264.10M-747.80M-230.40M-658.00M-848.00M
Financing Cash Flow-2.08B-1.64B-621.00M-1.66B-653.40M-462.70M

Canadian Tire Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price242.25
Price Trends
50DMA
251.30
Negative
100DMA
252.62
Negative
200DMA
237.64
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.52
Positive
RSI
43.95
Neutral
STOCH
11.73
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CTC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 242.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 249.08, below the 50-day MA of 251.30, and above the 200-day MA of 237.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CTC.

Canadian Tire Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
$8.89B17.6513.84%3.20%0.05%99.91%
68
Neutral
C$2.02B12.5614.38%2.88%0.57%8.54%
63
Neutral
C$420.15M15.615.36%2.77%7.61%1.71%
63
Neutral
C$2.04B22.16106.59%1.60%5.09%14.05%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CTC
Canadian Tire
242.25
20.99
9.49%
TSE:GBT
BMTC Group Inc.
12.99
0.54
4.34%
TSE:LNF
Leon's Furniture
29.50
2.54
9.42%
TSE:PET
Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.
27.40
2.43
9.73%

Canadian Tire Corporate Events

Canadian Tire’s Balanced Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Aug 13, 2025

The recent earnings call for Canadian Tire Corp presented a balanced sentiment, highlighting both positive developments and financial pressures. While the company reported strong top-line growth, loyalty, and market share gains, it also faced challenges such as decreased EPS, financial services profitability issues, and increased SG&A costs. Despite these pressures, the company remains optimistic due to positive consumer trends and strategic initiatives.

Canadian Tire Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Aug 8, 2025

Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited is a Canadian retail company offering a wide range of products across various sectors including automotive, sports, and home goods, with a strong focus on customer loyalty through its Triangle Rewards program.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025