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Keyera Corp.
(TSX:KEY)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
C$59.00
▼(-1.91% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened cash generation (TTM free cash flow turning negative) and softer profitability, despite revenue growth and some balance-sheet improvement. The latest earnings call was a meaningful positive—reaffirmed guidance, strong execution, realized synergies, and dividend growth—but valuation is expensive (P/E ~40) and technical signals indicate near-term weakness.
Positive Factors
Strategic NGL Expansion
The acquisitions broaden Keyera’s NGL and condensate infrastructure, improve connectivity to eastern and mid-continent markets, and should deepen fee-based earnings capacity through greater scale and asset integration.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
The sharp decline in operating cash flow and negative free cash flow show that current earnings are not translating into surplus cash after capital needs, potentially limiting deleveraging, distributions, and self-funded expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic NGL Expansion
The acquisitions broaden Keyera’s NGL and condensate infrastructure, improve connectivity to eastern and mid-continent markets, and should deepen fee-based earnings capacity through greater scale and asset integration.
Read all positive factors
Keyera Corp. (KEY) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$17.42B
Dividend Yield3.65%
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)41.6
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth0.24%
EPS Growth-38.65%
CountryCA
Employees1,257
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding293,441,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,043,890
30 Day Avg. Volume1,197,989
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio20.50
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$64.45Price Target Upside7.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$8.93B
Keyera Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keyera Corp. specializes in energy infrastructure within Canada, structured around three core operational divisions. Its Gathering and Processing segment is responsible for acquiring and refining raw natural gas through its network of pipelines an...
How the Company Makes Money
Keyera makes money by charging fees and earning margins from midstream infrastructure and services that move, process, and handle natural gas and NGLs. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Gathering and Processing: Keyera provides natural ga...
Keyera Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operational and financial achievements — record segment margins, successful integrations and project execution (including KFS Frac 2 delivered 20% under budget and early), meaningful day‑1 synergies ($90M), dividend growth (+4%), and reaffirmed guidance and multi‑year growth targets. Offsetting items include a weaker marketing quarter driven by the AEF outage (marketing realized margin $36M), temporarily elevated leverage at 3.3x net debt/EBITDA with a plan to deleverage by 2028, modest near‑term maintenance/integration costs, and an ongoing Competition Tribunal matter. Overall, the positives (acquisitions, record margins, project delivery, synergies and clear growth/hedging strategy) materially outweigh the near‑term challenges and risks.Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisitions Closed
Closed two strategic deals in the quarter: Plains' Canadian NGL business and the remaining 50% interest in KAPS, expanding Keyera's NGL and condensate connectivity and access to eastern and mid-continent markets.
Negative Updates
Marketing Weakness and AEF Outage Impact
Marketing realized margin was $36 million for the quarter, down versus prior periods largely due to the AEF outage and related timing impacts on risk management. Management expects partial offset in H2 2026 as physical volumes are sold.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Acquisitions Closed
Closed two strategic deals in the quarter: Plains' Canadian NGL business and the remaining 50% interest in KAPS, expanding Keyera's NGL and condensate connectivity and access to eastern and mid-continent markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Keyera reaffirmed its 2026 realized margin guidance of $360–$390 million, while keeping 2026 growth capital, maintenance capital and cash tax guidance unchanged; Q2 reported adjusted EBITDA (ex‑transaction costs) of $309M, distributable cash flow of $101M or $0.39/share, and net earnings of $308M, with segment realized margins of $128M (Gathering & Processing), $222M (Liquids Infrastructure) and $36M (Marketing). Management highlighted delivery of $90M of day‑one synergies and a current synergy target of $120–$140M, on‑time/on‑budget execution of KFS North, KFS Frac 3, KAPS Zone 4 and ACE Rail Terminal (KFS Frac 2 placed into service >1 month early and ~20% below original budget), a Board‑approved 4% dividend increase, and a balance‑sheet focus to deleverage from Q2 net debt/adjusted EBITDA of 3.3x back into a stated ~2.5–3.0x target by 2028; fee‑based adjusted EBITDA per share CAGRs of 16–18% (2025–2027) and 7–8% (2027–2029) underpinned the outlook, together with marketing and frac‑spread hedging (65%+ coverage noted) to support cash flow.Keyera Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.21B | 6.85B | 7.14B | 7.05B | 7.06B | 4.98B |
| Gross Profit | 1.02B | 1.01B | 1.39B | 1.43B | 1.18B | 1.05B |
| EBITDA | 1.03B | 1.19B | 1.16B | 1.24B | 1.02B | 893.99M |
| Net Income | 361.37M | 432.33M | 486.63M | 424.03M | 328.29M | 324.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 18.37B | 13.05B | 8.76B | 8.78B | 8.57B | 8.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 568.79M | 2.33B | 118.44M | 20.09M | -209.40M | 15.94M |
| Total Debt | 8.48B | 6.30B | 3.90B | 4.29B | 3.90B | 3.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.09B | 10.29B | 5.92B | 6.00B | 5.75B | 5.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.28B | 2.76B | 2.83B | 2.78B | 2.82B | 2.66B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -83.25M | 492.01M | 1.01B | 272.80M | 29.40M | 67.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 476.76M | 774.54M | 1.27B | 975.49M | 925.33M | 583.84M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.40B | -465.43M | -235.31M | -819.71M | -843.92M | -397.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.45B | 1.91B | -935.65M | -134.26M | -100.65M | -173.85M |
Keyera Corp. Technical Analysis
Positive
60.15
Price Trends
58.47
Positive
56.03
Positive
51.26
Positive
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
52.20
Neutral
61.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 60.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.81, above the 50-day MA of 58.47, and above the 200-day MA of 51.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:KEY.
Keyera Corp. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$5.02B | 28.04 | 12.16% | 4.19% | 13.57% | 102.90% | |
73 Outperform | C$39.00B | 23.50 | 10.54% | 3.95% | -0.28% | -4.26% | |
66 Neutral | C$16.41B | 26.84 | 7.00% | 2.27% | 8.91% | -24.51% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$5.38B | 30.94 | 18.23% | 5.66% | 18.62% | 3.09% | |
59 Neutral | C$440.26M | -5.69 | -42.19% | ― | 15.50% | -29.66% | |
57 Neutral | C$17.42B | 41.62 | 10.81% | 3.56% | 0.24% | -38.65% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
59.10
16.73
39.49%
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Keyera Corp. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Keyera boosts fee-based earnings as major NGL deals reshape portfolio
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Keyera reported a strong second quarter of 2026 as it closed the acquisition of Plains’ Canadian NGL business and took full ownership of the KAPS pipeline, moves that expanded its asset base and reinforced its integrated value chain strategy...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Keyera lifts quarterly dividend amid confidence in cash flows
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
Keyera Corp., a TSX-listed Canadian energy infrastructure company, operates a predominantly fee-for-service business across natural gas gathering and processing and natural gas liquids processing, transportation, storage and marketing. It also pro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.