tiprankstipranks
Gibson Energy (TSE:GEI)
TSX:GEI
Want to see TSE:GEI full AI Analyst Report?

Gibson Energy (GEI) AI Stock Analysis

296 Followers

Top Page

TSE:GEI

Gibson Energy

(TSX:GEI)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$32.00
â–²(3.33% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
The score is primarily held back by weaker cash flow trends and elevated leverage in the financial profile. Supporting factors include a clear multi-timeframe uptrend in the share price and a generally positive earnings call with strong EBITDA/distributable cash flow progress and defined deleveraging targets. Valuation is mixed: a high P/E offsets some of the attractiveness of the high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Operating Growth
Record infrastructure EBITDA and higher throughput indicate stronger utilization of Gibson’s fee-based network. Sustained operational improvement can support recurring cash earnings if volumes and customer demand remain resilient.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Leverage remains above target following portfolio investment and the Chauvin acquisition, limiting financial flexibility. Higher debt also increases sensitivity to weaker earnings and may constrain the pace of future growth spending.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating Growth
Record infrastructure EBITDA and higher throughput indicate stronger utilization of Gibson’s fee-based network. Sustained operational improvement can support recurring cash earnings if volumes and customer demand remain resilient.
Read all positive factors

Gibson Energy (GEI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Gibson Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Gibson Energy Inc. is a North American enterprise specializing in liquid hydrocarbon infrastructure, involved in the collection, storage, optimization, processing, and distribution of liquid fuels and refined petroleum products. Its operations are...
How the Company Makes Money
Gibson Energy primarily makes money by providing midstream infrastructure services under commercial contracts with producers, refiners, marketers, and other shippers. The company’s key revenue stream is its terminaling and storage business, where ...

Gibson Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presented a predominantly constructive picture: strong operational execution (record infrastructure EBITDA, improved marketing, throughput growth), successful strategic actions (Chauvin acquisition, U.S. integration work), improved cash flow and liquidity actions, and clear cost-saving initiatives. The primary negatives are market-driven and temporary — volatility in exports and vessel availability, slightly elevated near-term leverage and a temporarily higher dividend payout. Management provided a clear plan and timelines (leverage normalization in early 2027, Chauvin FID target by year-end), which, combined with reaffirmed credit ratings and demonstrated execution, weigh the narrative toward a positive outlook.
Positive Updates
Record Infrastructure Adjusted EBITDA
Infrastructure adjusted EBITDA of CAD 169 million in Q2 2026, up CAD 17 million year-over-year (≈+11.2% YoY) and CAD 9 million higher than the prior record set in Q4 2025.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility Impacting Contracts and Volumes
Geopolitical uncertainty, commodity volatility, elevated freight rates and constrained vessel availability have created temporary impacts on gateway volumes and made long-term contracting more difficult in the current volatile crude export market.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Record Infrastructure Adjusted EBITDA
Infrastructure adjusted EBITDA of CAD 169 million in Q2 2026, up CAD 17 million year-over-year (≈+11.2% YoY) and CAD 9 million higher than the prior record set in Q4 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated a constructive outlook and specific targets: Q2 infrastructure adjusted EBITDA set a record at CAD 169 million (up CAD 17 million year-over-year and CAD 9 million above the prior record), consolidated adjusted EBITDA was CAD 169 million (up CAD 22 million YoY), and marketing EBITDA was CAD 15 million in Q2 (vs CAD 8 million a year ago) with year-to-date marketing at CAD 18 million and trending toward the upper end of the CAD 0–40 million full‑year range; distributable cash flow was CAD 96 million (up CAD 15 million YoY), corporate G&A was CAD 16 million (below prior CAD 17–18 million guidance) and management expects about CAD 10 million of sustainable annualized savings in 2027; balance‑sheet targets include returning leverage to the 3.0–3.5x net debt/EBITDA range in early 2027 (quarter‑end reported net debt/adjusted EBITDA 4.2x, infrastructure leverage 4.4x; pro forma with a full 12 months of Chauvin at 3.9x overall and 4.1x infrastructure-only), a sustainable dividend payout ratio of 88% (infrastructure‑only 83% vs 100% target), an extended CAD 1.0 billion revolver to June 2031 and CAD 400 million of senior notes issued; key project milestones/guidance include closing the Chauvin acquisition (May 1), a Hardisty connection expected H1 2027, Chauvin expansion engineering to raise capacity from 30,000 to 45,000 bpd (50% increase) with an FID targeted by year‑end, and the Wink‑to‑Gateway integration on track for service by end of Q3.

Gibson Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement trends are mixed: revenue returned to modest growth, but margins are thin and net income declined versus 2025. The balance sheet remains a key constraint with elevated leverage despite some improvement. Cash flow is the main weakness, with lower operating and free cash flow in TTM and weak cash conversion versus earnings, reducing flexibility for deleveraging and distributions.
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue12.77B10.69B11.78B11.01B11.04B7.21B
Gross Profit454.71M427.44M423.64M483.33M394.44M298.33M
EBITDA504.76M571.69M496.05M494.33M449.44M381.24M
Net Income168.52M197.64M152.17M214.21M223.25M145.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.32B4.63B4.97B4.95B3.19B3.43B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments39.97M55.85M57.07M143.76M83.60M62.69M
Total Debt3.02B2.84B2.65B2.77B1.72B1.74B
Total Liabilities4.29B3.81B4.00B4.03B2.62B2.79B
Stockholders Equity1.03B821.02M972.07M912.47M573.02M644.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow283.25M207.30M284.31M376.89M398.68M44.38M
Operating Cash Flow373.47M383.21M459.56M507.31M539.06M162.06M
Investing Cash Flow-500.54M-179.76M-142.28M-1.60B-134.40M-127.06M
Financing Cash Flow119.12M-201.33M-405.10M1.14B-386.26M-28.20M

Gibson Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price30.97
Price Trends
50DMA
31.03
Negative
100DMA
29.80
Positive
200DMA
28.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
43.58
Neutral
STOCH
32.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GEI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.39, below the 50-day MA of 31.03, and above the 200-day MA of 28.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GEI.

Gibson Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
C$4.77B27.1612.16%4.45%13.57%102.90%
73
Outperform
C$38.53B23.3310.54%4.32%-0.28%-4.26%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
C$5.29B30.6218.23%5.74%18.62%3.09%
57
Neutral
C$16.00B38.4110.81%3.96%0.24%-38.65%
48
Neutral
C$469.65M-6.05-42.19%4.08%15.50%-29.66%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
30.68
6.09
24.78%
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
66.26
14.93
29.09%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
54.54
11.30
26.12%
TSE:TWM
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure
21.41
15.42
257.43%
TSE:TPZ
Topaz Energy Corp
30.79
6.40
26.24%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 28, 2026