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TC Energy
(TSX:TRP)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
C$90.00
â–²(5.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong margins and improving free cash flow) but tempered by meaningful leverage and historical earnings/FCF volatility. Earnings-call commentary adds support via upbeat guidance confidence, strong execution, and a deepening project pipeline, while valuation (P/E 28.35) and near-term technical softness (below 20D/50D) restrain the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Contracted, regulated revenue model
Fee-based transportation under long-term contracts and regulated tariffs can make revenue more predictable than commodity-linked models. Reservation, take-or-pay and cost-of-service mechanisms support recurring cash generation and reduce direct exposure to gas and oil prices over the planning horizon.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt at about 2.2x equity in both 2025 and TTM leaves less financial flexibility, particularly if rates remain high or investment needs rise. Leverage also means returns on the asset base are partly supported by borrowing, increasing the importance of disciplined capital allocation.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted, regulated revenue model
Fee-based transportation under long-term contracts and regulated tariffs can make revenue more predictable than commodity-linked models. Reservation, take-or-pay and cost-of-service mechanisms support recurring cash generation and reduce direct exposure to gas and oil prices over the planning horizon.
Read all positive factors
TC Energy (TRP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$92.02B
Dividend Yield3.94%
Average Volume (3M)6.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.5
Beta (1Y)0.21
Revenue Growth5.52%
EPS Growth-18.22%
CountryCA
Employees6,574
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.33
Shares Outstanding1,041,939,100
10 Day Avg. Volume6,143,327
30 Day Avg. Volume6,722,250
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.88
Price to Book (P/B)2.88
Price to Sales (P/S)5.17
P/FCF Ratio37.77
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$102.47Price Target Upside19.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)3.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$15.97B
TC Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TC Energy Corporation functions as a leading energy infrastructure enterprise across North America. Its comprehensive operations are organized into five primary divisions: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines, U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines, Mexico Natural ...
How the Company Makes Money
TC Energy primarily makes money by providing fee-based transportation and related infrastructure services under long-term contracts and regulated tariff frameworks. A major revenue stream comes from its natural gas pipeline network: shippers (prod...
TC Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, solid 2Q financial results (12% comparable EBITDA growth), active project sanctioning (~$3B YTD) and a materially expanded origination pipeline (> $20B) supported by rising gas demand forecasts (51 Bcf/day by 2035). Key strengths include Bruce Power outperformance, upward guidance confidence, sustainability progress and secured equipment/contractor strategies. Principal risks highlighted were timing and funding of a large late‑decade investment ramp, dynamic FID timing for the origination backlog, and the need to finalize regulatory/return frameworks in Canada. On balance, the positive operational and commercial momentum significantly outweighs the risks, which management is actively addressing.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Second-quarter comparable EBITDA grew 12% year-over-year; company now targeting the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook of $11.6B–$11.8B and a 2028 target of $12.6B–$13.1B (≈6% annualized midpoint growth from 2025).
Negative Updates
Timing and Funding Uncertainty for Large Capital Ramp
Meaningful increase in origination/backlog points to a large investment pace in 2029–2031; management acknowledges a funding window (pre-Bruce cash inflows) that may require capital-market solutions (hybrids, partnerships, equity or other) and will decide timing/structure over the next 1–2 years.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Second-quarter comparable EBITDA grew 12% year-over-year; company now targeting the upper end of its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook of $11.6B–$11.8B and a 2028 target of $12.6B–$13.1B (≈6% annualized midpoint growth from 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated they now expect to be at the upper end of 2026 comparable EBITDA guidance of $11.6–$11.8 billion and continue to target $12.6–$13.1 billion in 2028 (≈6% annualized midpoint growth from 2025), after reporting Q2 comparable EBITDA growth of 12% YoY and system-wide pipeline flows up 3%; operationally they placed ~$2 billion of assets into service in H1 2026 and expect ~$3.5 billion by year-end, have sanctioned roughly $3 billion YTD at a ~12% unlevered after‑tax IRR, moved pending approvals to about $7 billion (up $1 billion), and disclose a $20 billion+ origination backlog (≈2/3 power) with projects generally targeting 5–7x build multiples (Columbia projects ~5.8x); their outlook assumes ~51 Bcf/d incremental North American gas demand by 2035 (40% above 2025, +11 Bcf/d vs prior outlook), ~16 Bcf/d from power and >8 Bcf/d in Canada, while also noting Bruce Power availability of 99% (Unit 3 returned >7 months early and ~15% below Unit 6 cost), an AI-related 2026 incremental EBITDA target of $100 million (about halfway achieved), methane intensity down 24% since 2019 toward a 40–55% 2035 target, a 4.75x leverage goal, and the potential to scale annual growth investment materially in 2029–2031 with Bruce unlocking ~$2–$3 billion/year when MCR work completes in 2031–2032.TC Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 16.00B | 15.20B | 13.77B | 13.27B | 12.31B | 13.39B |
| Gross Profit | 8.24B | 7.60B | 6.61B | 6.67B | 5.80B | 6.68B |
| EBITDA | 11.21B | 11.61B | 11.22B | 8.66B | 5.24B | 6.70B |
| Net Income | 3.60B | 3.52B | 4.70B | 2.92B | 748.00M | 1.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 123.93B | 118.75B | 118.24B | 125.03B | 114.35B | 104.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.07B | 261.00M | 801.00M | 3.68B | 620.00M | 673.00M |
| Total Debt | 63.74B | 61.00B | 59.88B | 63.66B | 58.68B | 53.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 86.45B | 81.85B | 79.88B | 86.03B | 80.23B | 70.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.76B | 27.30B | 27.59B | 29.55B | 33.99B | 33.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.07B | 2.08B | 1.34B | -881.00M | -352.00M | 966.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.63B | 7.35B | 7.70B | 7.27B | 6.38B | 6.89B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.67B | -6.46B | -6.91B | -12.29B | -7.01B | -7.71B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.33B | -1.52B | -3.87B | 8.09B | 487.00M | -88.00M |
TC Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
85.58
Price Trends
85.33
Positive
89.55
Negative
86.86
Positive
Market Momentum
0.77
Negative
59.45
Neutral
82.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 85.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.02, above the 50-day MA of 85.33, and below the 200-day MA of 86.86, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TRP.
TC Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$40.73B | 24.66 | 10.54% | 4.13% | -0.28% | -4.26% | |
71 Outperform | C$17.54B | 28.58 | 7.00% | 2.34% | 8.91% | -24.51% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$92.02B | 26.52 | 13.07% | 3.94% | 5.52% | -18.22% | |
64 Neutral | C$153.96B | 22.63 | 10.01% | 5.67% | 28.91% | -8.55% | |
63 Neutral | C$5.79B | 33.51 | 18.23% | 5.30% | 18.62% | 3.09% | |
57 Neutral | C$16.01B | 38.42 | 10.81% | 4.00% | 0.24% | -38.65% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:TRP
TC Energy
90.06
22.27
32.84%
TSE:ENB
Enbridge
68.90
6.62
10.63%
TSE:PPL
Pembina Pipeline
71.17
20.85
41.44%
TSE:GEI
Gibson Energy
33.89
11.60
52.04%
TSE:ALA
AltaGas
56.22
16.45
41.36%
TSE:KEY
Keyera Corp.
55.07
15.47
39.08%
TC Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
TC Energy to Sell Guadalajara‑Manzanillo Pipeline for $560 Million
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
TC Energy has agreed to sell Energía Occidente de México, owner of the 313‑kilometre Guadalajara‑Manzanillo natural gas pipeline, to ESENTIA affiliates for approximately $560 million. The pipeline can transport up to 500 MMcf...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.