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Imperial Oil
(TSX:IMO)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$199.00
â–²(8.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—solid profitability, conservative leverage in annual data, and robust free cash flow supporting dividends and buybacks—reinforced by a constructive earnings call highlighting accelerated repurchases and healthy liquidity. Technicals are supportive with positive MACD and price holding above key moving averages, while the main constraints are a middling valuation (P/E ~20.3 with a ~1.75% yield) and near-term operational headwinds reflected in lowered downstream throughput guidance.
Positive Factors
Integrated Business Model
Imperial’s integrated value chain provides diversification across production, refining and fuel marketing. Lower crude costs can support downstream margins, while upstream strength can offset weaker refining conditions, creating resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity-Cycle Exposure
Despite healthy current profitability, Imperial remains exposed to crude, natural gas and refined-product prices. Margin compression from prior peaks demonstrates that earnings and cash flow can weaken materially when commodity spreads or market conditions deteriorate.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated Business Model
Imperial’s integrated value chain provides diversification across production, refining and fuel marketing. Lower crude costs can support downstream margins, while upstream strength can offset weaker refining conditions, creating resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Imperial Oil (IMO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$87.92B
Dividend Yield1.84%
Average Volume (3M)793.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.2
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth6.90%
EPS Growth-6.08%
CountryCA
Employees5,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.96
Shares Outstanding483,592,700
10 Day Avg. Volume799,508
30 Day Avg. Volume793,283
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.65
Price to Book (P/B)2.68
Price to Sales (P/S)1.27
P/FCF Ratio12.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$157.88Price Target Upside-13.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)14.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$58.82B
Imperial Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Imperial Oil Limited operates as a Canadian energy enterprise, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas. Its extensive operations are segmented into three main areas: Upstream, Downstream, and Ch...
How the Company Makes Money
Imperial Oil makes money primarily by earning margins across its integrated value chain: (1) Upstream revenue is generated from producing crude oil (including oil sands production) and natural gas and selling these commodities; earnings depend on ...
Imperial Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong financial performance and healthy liquidity position, driven by higher commodity prices and margin improvements, supported by disciplined capital allocation (accelerated buybacks and a growing dividend). Operationally there were notable execution wins (Kearl turnaround ahead of schedule/below budget, Strathcona turnaround, renewable diesel economics) and meaningful progress on growth pilots (Aspen EBRT) and restructuring. However, the company also disclosed several near-term operational headwinds — lowered downstream throughput guidance (~6%), Q2 refinery throughput drop (~-13.8% sequentially), unplanned maintenance, weather-related impacts and rail congestion — which have tempered near-term volume outlook and pushed full-year upstream toward the low end of guidance. On balance the strong earnings, cash flow, and clear capital-return actions outweigh the operational challenges and the tone is constructive about remediation and future growth.Positive Updates
Strong Net Income and Sequential Improvement
Reported net income of $2.190 billion in Q2 2026, up $1.241 billion year-over-year (≈+131%) and up $1.250 billion sequentially (≈+133%), driven primarily by higher commodity prices.
Negative Updates
Lowered Downstream Throughput Guidance
Company lowered downstream throughput guidance by approximately 6% reflecting higher unplanned downtime in H1, prioritization of renewable diesel (which reduced crude throughput), and rail-yard congestion at Strathcona.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Net Income and Sequential Improvement
Reported net income of $2.190 billion in Q2 2026, up $1.241 billion year-over-year (≈+131%) and up $1.250 billion sequentially (≈+133%), driven primarily by higher commodity prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Imperial lowered downstream throughput guidance by about 6% and now expects full‑year upstream production to be toward the low end of its prior guidance after H1 averaged 414,000 gross boe/d (Kearl 257,000 bpd, Cold Lake 149,000 bpd, Syncrude 73,000 bpd); refinery throughput averaged 331,000 bpd (76% utilization) and petroleum product sales were 446,000 bpd, with management forecasting higher volumes and throughput in H2 now that major turnarounds are largely complete. Financial and capital metrics reiterated include Q2 net income of $2.19 billion, cash from operations >$2.7 billion (≈$2.522 billion excluding working capital), cash on hand >$2.8 billion, Q2 CapEx $531 million (Upstream $359 million), Q2 dividends paid $421 million and a Q3 dividend of $0.87/share, and an accelerated NCIB with the intent to repurchase all remaining allowable shares by year‑end. Key operational and timing targets noted were the Aspen enhanced‑bitumen‑recovery pilot on track for start‑up in early 2027, a Kearl unit OpEx goal of US$18/boe (with Cold Lake at US$13/boe referenced) by 2027, the next Kearl turnaround not until 2029, a Syncrude coker turnaround of ~50 days starting in late August, and an expected ~$150 million of lower cash OpEx by 2028 from restructuring.Imperial Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 55.99B | 47.08B | 51.51B | 50.90B | 59.51B | 37.51B |
| Gross Profit | 9.85B | 9.99B | 9.20B | 9.22B | 12.19B | 6.09B |
| EBITDA | 8.67B | 6.84B | 8.24B | 8.27B | 11.28B | 5.23B |
| Net Income | 4.37B | 3.27B | 4.79B | 4.89B | 7.34B | 2.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 47.86B | 42.31B | 42.94B | 41.20B | 43.52B | 40.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.84B | 1.14B | 979.00M | 864.00M | 3.75B | 2.15B |
| Total Debt | 4.20B | 4.38B | 4.16B | 4.33B | 4.43B | 5.42B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.32B | 20.05B | 19.46B | 18.98B | 21.11B | 19.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.54B | 22.25B | 23.47B | 22.22B | 22.41B | 21.73B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.55B | 4.70B | 4.11B | 1.95B | 8.96B | 4.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.89B | 6.71B | 5.98B | 3.73B | 10.48B | 5.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.15B | -1.89B | -1.82B | -1.69B | -618.00M | -1.01B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.49B | -4.65B | -4.04B | -4.92B | -8.27B | -3.08B |
Imperial Oil Risk Analysis
Imperial Oil disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Imperial Oil reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Imperial Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | C$146.18B | 12.41 | 26.67% | 3.51% | 17.57% | 42.82% | |
77 Outperform | C$87.92B | 20.22 | 18.76% | 1.84% | 6.90% | -6.08% | |
77 Outperform | C$85.22B | 12.79 | 21.02% | 1.85% | 4.36% | 148.74% | |
76 Outperform | C$111.45B | 12.69 | 19.38% | 2.52% | 13.75% | 65.44% | |
64 Neutral | C$87.53B | 25.71 | 13.07% | 4.13% | 5.52% | -18.22% | |
60 Neutral | C$60.45B | 164.90 | 5.09% | 0.18% | -2.68% | -33.51% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
TSE:IMO
Imperial Oil
181.18
56.78
45.65%
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Imperial Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Methanex Declares Quarterly Dividend of US$0.185 Per Share
Positive
Jul 16, 2026
Methanex’s board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.185 per share, reinforcing the company’s practice of returning cash to shareholders. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on September 30, 2026, to common sharehol...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.