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Canadian Natural
(TSX:CNQ)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
C$73.00
â–²(6.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, solid cash generation, and manageable leverage) and a very constructive earnings update (raised production guidance, capital discipline, large shareholder returns, and debt reduction). Valuation adds support via a reasonable P/E and attractive dividend yield. Technicals are positive but not strongly momentum-driven, and cyclicality/commodity sensitivity plus deferred growth projects remain the main constraints on the score.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & Cash Generation
Sustained high margins and rapidly growing free cash flow underpin durable internal funding for capital, dividends and buybacks. Operating cash flow exceeds net income (~1.48x), supporting earnings quality and resilience through commodity cycles while enabling consistent capital returns.
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Exposure to Prices
Net debt reduction progress and timing are tied to commodity pricing, so deleveraging and related capacity to invest or return capital can be delayed if prices weaken. This linkage leaves strategic flexibility vulnerable to sustained commodity downcycles.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability & Cash Generation
Sustained high margins and rapidly growing free cash flow underpin durable internal funding for capital, dividends and buybacks. Operating cash flow exceeds net income (~1.48x), supporting earnings quality and resilience through commodity cycles while enabling consistent capital returns.
Read all positive factors
Canadian Natural (CNQ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$142.90B
Dividend Yield3.55%
Average Volume (3M)13.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.2
Beta (1Y)0.03
Revenue Growth17.57%
EPS Growth42.82%
CountryCA
Employees10,750
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.66
Shares Outstanding2,061,500,000
10 Day Avg. Volume21,470,563
30 Day Avg. Volume13,528,114
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.11
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)2.51
P/FCF Ratio11.53
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$73.58Price Target Upside7.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)6.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$49.99B
Canadian Natural Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) is an integrated energy company involved in the entire lifecycle of hydrocarbon resources, from acquisition and exploration to development, production, marketing, and sales. The firm's product portfolio in...
How the Company Makes Money
CNQ makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into domestic and international markets. Revenue is generated from (1) crude oil sales, including oil sands–derived synthetic crude oil produced from mining/upgrading operations ...
Canadian Natural Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights multiple record operational and financial achievements — including all-time quarterly production records across oil sands and total corporate metrics, industry-leading operating costs and netbacks, exceptional adjusted earnings and funds flow, meaningful shareholder returns, and improved liquidity — demonstrating strong execution and cash generation. Risks were acknowledged, notably development projects being paused pending definitive agreements under the trilateral MOU, SCO price volatility, solvent economics uncertainty, scheduled turnarounds, and timing risk to reach targeted net debt levels. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum and large number of material records materially outweigh the manageable strategic and execution risks discussed.Positive Updates
Record Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading Production
Highest quarterly oil sands mining and upgrading production in company history at ~625,000 bbl/d in Q2 2026, up ~161,000 bbl/d or ~35% year-over-year; upgrader utilization of 106%.
Negative Updates
Development Projects On Hold Pending Definitive Agreements
Medium and long-term growth projects (e.g., 30,000 bbl/d Jackfish expansion, 70,000 bbl/d Pike 2, and mining expansions at Albion and Horizon) are on hold until definitive agreements from the trilateral MOU are completed, creating timing risk for future growth.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading Production
Highest quarterly oil sands mining and upgrading production in company history at ~625,000 bbl/d in Q2 2026, up ~161,000 bbl/d or ~35% year-over-year; upgrader utilization of 106%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Canadian Natural updated 2026 guidance by raising annual production to 1.64–1.68 million BOE/d (a ~20k BOE/d midpoint increase), kept the 2026 capital program unchanged at approximately CAD$6.0 billion (before net acquisition cost), maintained strong shareholder return targets with a quarterly dividend of CAD$0.625/share (payable Oct 2, 2026; record Sep 11, 2026) and a share‑buyback program targeting to return 75% of free cash flow (funds flow after dividends, capital and abandonment), noted liquidity of roughly CAD$8.0 billion available, reported net debt declined by about CAD$1.6 billion in Q2 to CAD$14.5 billion with a goal of reaching ~CAD$13.0 billion in early 2027, and signaled that medium‑ and long‑term growth projects (Jackfish ~30k bbl/d, Pike 2 ~70k bbl/d, plus Albion and Horizon) will remain on hold pending definitive agreements under the trilateral MOU.Canadian Natural Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 47.15B | 38.76B | 41.51B | 40.84B | 49.53B | 32.85B |
| Gross Profit | 16.52B | 9.02B | 10.90B | 11.77B | 16.26B | 10.58B |
| EBITDA | 25.67B | 23.84B | 15.41B | 17.27B | 21.73B | 16.38B |
| Net Income | 11.75B | 10.82B | 6.11B | 8.23B | 10.94B | 7.66B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 96.58B | 91.83B | 85.36B | 75.95B | 76.14B | 76.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.62B | 673.00M | 131.00M | 1.40B | 1.41B | 1.05B |
| Total Debt | 17.14B | 19.72B | 20.28B | 12.35B | 12.98B | 16.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 49.79B | 47.46B | 45.89B | 36.12B | 37.97B | 39.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 46.80B | 44.37B | 39.47B | 39.83B | 38.17B | 36.95B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.74B | 8.43B | 8.00B | 7.44B | 14.29B | 9.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.81B | 15.11B | 13.39B | 12.35B | 19.39B | 14.48B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.85B | -6.69B | -14.10B | -4.86B | -4.99B | -3.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.49B | -7.88B | -37.00M | -7.54B | -14.23B | -10.21B |
Canadian Natural Technical Analysis
Positive
68.68
Price Trends
64.75
Positive
63.07
Positive
58.12
Positive
Market Momentum
1.36
Positive
56.45
Neutral
41.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CNQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.05, above the 50-day MA of 64.75, and above the 200-day MA of 58.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CNQ.
Canadian Natural Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | C$142.90B | 12.25 | 26.67% | 3.55% | 17.57% | 42.82% | |
80 Outperform | C$22.51B | 15.87 | 12.87% | 3.94% | 91.52% | -20.09% | |
75 Outperform | C$8.31B | 34.38 | 9.48% | 2.94% | 6.68% | 11.02% | |
72 Outperform | C$9.47B | 11.19 | 17.02% | 47.94% | -8.60% | 18.87% | |
67 Neutral | C$23.85B | 63.27 | 2.37% | 4.24% | 4.36% | -75.85% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:CNQ
Canadian Natural
69.32
27.52
65.85%
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
18.54
8.45
83.69%
TSE:PSK
PrairieSky Royalty
35.76
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50.57%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
61.37
3.92
6.83%
TSE:SCR
Strathcona Resources
44.22
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65.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.