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Whitecap Resources
(TSX:WCP)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
C$22.50
▲(28.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high free cash flow generation and conservative leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with raised guidance and continued debt reduction. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, though momentum indicators are near stretched levels. Valuation is reasonable with a solid dividend yield, but not especially cheap based on P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Whitecap is converting operations into substantial cash, providing internal funding for drilling, debt repayment and shareholder distributions. The combination of strong operating cash flow and growing free cash flow supports financial resilience and gives management flexibility through the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle earnings volatility
Whitecap's upstream earnings remain exposed to changes in realized oil, NGL and natural-gas prices, making profitability less predictable than the production outlook alone suggests. The historical margin normalization indicates that strong cash generation can contract materially when commodity conditions weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Whitecap is converting operations into substantial cash, providing internal funding for drilling, debt repayment and shareholder distributions. The combination of strong operating cash flow and growing free cash flow supports financial resilience and gives management flexibility through the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Whitecap Resources (WCP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$23.82B
Dividend Yield3.72%
Average Volume (3M)5.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.5
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth73.34%
EPS Growth8.54%
CountryCA
Employees1,045
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.27
Shares Outstanding1,213,900,000
10 Day Avg. Volume6,118,403
30 Day Avg. Volume5,627,521
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)2.21
P/FCF Ratio18.74
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$23.09Price Target Upside31.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$9.04B
Whitecap Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Whitecap Resources Inc. is a Calgary, Canada-based oil and gas enterprise, dedicated to acquiring and developing crude oil and natural gas assets throughout Canada. Its primary operational areas are situated across West Central Alberta, British Co...
How the Company Makes Money
Whitecap makes money by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into Canadian and broader North American energy markets. Its primary revenue stream is sales of crude oil, which typically represents the largest portion of its product mix, alongside...
Whitecap Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, with record-level operational execution, production above forecast, 32% year-over-year per-share funds-flow growth, substantial debt reduction, a dividend increase and 2027 production and free-funds-flow growth expectations. The company also highlighted improved asset productivity, capacity expansion and significant capital-allocation flexibility. The principal challenges were the planned Kaybob turnaround, higher 2027 operating and capital costs, increased royalties and transportation expenses, a noncash commodity-contract loss, and lower normalized Conventional production. Overall, the positive operational, financial and balance-sheet developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Production
Third-quarter production averaged 390,720 BOE per day, including 237,252 barrels per day of condensate, light oil and NGLs and approximately 920 million cubic feet per day of natural gas. Production was above internal forecast due to strong base production and new-well performance at Gold Creek and Kaybob, as well as better-than-anticipated Conventional production. Production per share increased 5% compared with the third quarter of 2025.
Negative Updates
Planned Kaybob Turnarounds Will Reduce 2027 Production
A planned turnaround at Whitecap's 15-07 gas plant and a third-party processing facility, both at Kaybob in the third quarter of 2027, is expected to reduce third-quarter production by approximately 32,000 BOE per day and annual average production by approximately 8,000 BOE per day. Management said the production impact estimate is net of anticipated mitigation efforts.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Production
Third-quarter production averaged 390,720 BOE per day, including 237,252 barrels per day of condensate, light oil and NGLs and approximately 920 million cubic feet per day of natural gas. Production was above internal forecast due to strong base production and new-well performance at Gold Creek and Kaybob, as well as better-than-anticipated Conventional production. Production per share increased 5% compared with the third quarter of 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, Whitecap increased its capital budget by approximately $100 million to $2.2 billion, raised average production guidance to 392,000 BOE per day and expects fourth quarter production of 395,000 to 400,000 BOE per day, an increase of approximately 19,500 BOE per day or 5% from its original budget guidance; for 2027, the $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion capital program includes 332 total wells, comprised of 127 Unconventional Montney and Duvernay wells and 205 Conventional wells, and is expected to deliver average production of 400,000 to 410,000 BOE per day, approximately 3% annual growth or approximately 5% excluding the planned major turnarounds at Kaybob in the third quarter of 2027, including 140,000 BOE per day from Conventional and 265,000 BOE per day from Unconventional, which is forecasted to grow by 8%, with condensate production growing from a base of 60,000 to over 70,000 BOE per day; at strip prices, the forecast generates $4.6 billion of funds flow and $2.1 billion of free funds flow, increasing by approximately $400 million to $2.5 billion if the Productivity Mega Deduction is enacted as proposed, leaving $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion of unallocated free funds flow beyond the $900 million base dividend; at the price deck of $80 WTI, $2.00 per GJ AECO and a CAD 0.71 U.S. exchange rate, Whitecap forecasts funds flow of approximately $4.1 billion or $3.34 per share and approximately $1.6 billion of free funds flow after capital investments of $2.5 billion at the midpoint, with a current tax rate of 10% to 12% on pretax funds flow, increasing 2027 free funds flow to approximately $2.0 billion if the Productivity Mega Deduction is enacted as proposed and closer to $2.5 billion at current strip pricing; 2027 operating costs are forecast in the $12 to $12.50 per BOE range and transportation costs in the range of $3.50 to $3.75 per BOE, the Kaybob turnaround is expected to impact third quarter production by approximately 32,000 BOE per day and annual average production by approximately 8,000 BOE per day, Lator’s 2-rig program is expected to spud 22 wells and bring on 17 wells, with ramp-up to 35,000 to 40,000 BOE per day expected to take 12 to 18 months, and Whitecap expects to exit 2026 with net debt of less than $2.0 billion.Whitecap Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.83B | 5.17B | 3.34B | 3.23B | 3.92B | 2.28B |
| Gross Profit | 3.42B | 1.61B | 2.07B | 2.03B | 2.72B | 1.48B |
| EBITDA | 4.81B | 3.18B | 1.93B | 2.08B | 3.12B | 2.94B |
| Net Income | 1.55B | 984.60M | 812.30M | 889.00M | 1.68B | 1.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.80B | 19.29B | 9.95B | 9.60B | 9.53B | 6.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 421.70M | 59.40M | 362.30M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 2.78B | 4.40B | 1.14B | 1.38B | 1.87B | 1.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.20B | 8.29B | 4.20B | 4.13B | 4.48B | 3.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.60B | 11.00B | 5.75B | 5.48B | 5.05B | 3.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.40B | 609.40M | 696.80M | 617.60M | 1.49B | 564.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.76B | 2.69B | 1.83B | 1.74B | 2.18B | 1.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.34B | -1.35B | -563.80M | -765.60M | -2.50B | -387.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.00B | -1.64B | -907.40M | -976.90M | 313.40M | -736.53M |
Whitecap Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
17.51
Price Trends
18.63
Positive
17.19
Positive
15.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Positive
55.02
Neutral
32.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.44, below the 50-day MA of 18.63, and above the 200-day MA of 15.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:WCP.
Whitecap Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | C$23.82B | 15.47 | 13.77% | 3.72% | 73.34% | 8.54% | |
79 Outperform | C$8.60B | 30.82 | 10.96% | 2.85% | 17.21% | 29.29% | |
71 Outperform | C$26.67B | 70.76 | 2.37% | 3.28% | 4.36% | -75.85% | |
68 Neutral | C$6.65B | 18.02 | 20.30% | 1.29% | 10.65% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$9.18B | 10.85 | 17.02% | 49.45% | -8.60% | 18.87% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
19.62
9.64
96.61%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
14.09
7.92
128.22%
TSE:PSK
PrairieSky Royalty
36.98
12.72
52.44%
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
68.64
9.32
15.71%
TSE:SCR
Strathcona Resources
42.87
15.70
57.78%
Whitecap Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Whitecap boosts 2026 guidance and dividend after robust Q3
Positive
Oct 28, 2026
Whitecap reported strong third quarter 2026 results, with production of 390,720 boe/d exceeding internal forecasts and supported by robust well performance at Gold Creek, Kaybob and Saskatchewan light oil assets. Elevated light oil and condensate ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Whitecap Confirms August Monthly Dividend, Underscoring Stable Payout Strategy
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
Whitecap Resources Inc., a Canadian oil and natural gas producer operating in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, positions itself as a reliable dividend payer with a focus on responsible development and investment-grade financial discipline. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.