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Whitecap Resources
(TSX:WCP)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$21.00
â–²(19.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong cash generation, moderate leverage, and positive profitability) and a notably strong earnings call (raised production guidance, record cash flow, and rapid debt reduction). Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages, while valuation is the main constraint due to a ~20.3 P/E despite a ~4.43% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Strong operating and free cash flow gives Whitecap capacity to fund development while reducing debt. The $900 million net-debt reduction improves financial flexibility, lowers balance-sheet risk, and supports continued investment through the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle exposure limits earnings consistency
Profitability remains healthy but has normalized substantially from prior-cycle peaks, showing that earnings power is sensitive to commodity prices and cost conditions. This cyclicality can make cash generation and returns less predictable over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
Strong operating and free cash flow gives Whitecap capacity to fund development while reducing debt. The $900 million net-debt reduction improves financial flexibility, lowers balance-sheet risk, and supports continued investment through the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Whitecap Resources (WCP) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$22.12B
Dividend Yield3.9%
Average Volume (3M)5.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth91.52%
EPS Growth-20.09%
CountryCA
Employees1,045
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.17
Shares Outstanding1,213,900,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,396,116
30 Day Avg. Volume5,401,068
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)2.21
P/FCF Ratio18.74
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$21.00Price Target Upside19.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$8.67B
Whitecap Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Whitecap Resources Inc. is a Calgary, Canada-based oil and gas enterprise, dedicated to acquiring and developing crude oil and natural gas assets throughout Canada. Its primary operational areas are situated across West Central Alberta, British Co...
How the Company Makes Money
Whitecap makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them into the market. Its core revenue stream is the sale of crude oil and condensate, with additional revenue from natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas sales. Revenue is g...
Whitecap Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial outperformance: record funds flow and free cash flow, double-digit improvement in netbacks and costs, meaningful production beats and raised guidance, and significant debt reduction. Challenges noted include weak AECO gas pricing, mark-to-market hedge volatility, some near-term downtime baked into guidance, and a deliberate focus on balance sheet strength rather than immediate large-scale buybacks. Overall the positives (record cash generation, guidance raise, capital efficiency gains and debt reduction) materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Funds Flow and Free Cash Flow
Second quarter funds flow of $1.4 billion ($1.11/share) and record free funds flow of $925 million, enabling strong cash generation and capital optionality.
Negative Updates
Weak Natural Gas Prices and AECO Impact
AECO prices averaged only $1.63/Mcf in Q2, impacted by unplanned NGTL maintenance; realized natural gas was $2.29/Mcf (a $0.66 premium to AECO) but gas weakness remains a headwind for gas-weighted assets.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Funds Flow and Free Cash Flow
Second quarter funds flow of $1.4 billion ($1.11/share) and record free funds flow of $925 million, enabling strong cash generation and capital optionality.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised 2026 production guidance by 5,000 BOE/d to 385,000 BOE/d (a 12,500 BOE/d / 3% increase from the original budget) and expects to exit the year in excess of that level while having already incorporated ~10,000 BOE/d of Q3 downtime; capital spending guidance remains $2.0–$2.1 billion with plans to spend at the high end (roughly $600M in Q3 and $400M in Q4) and rigs ramping from ~7 in Q2 to ~12 in Q3–Q4. Q2 results included record funds flow of $1.4 billion ($1.11/sh), free funds flow of $925 million, net income of $890M ($0.73/sh), an operating netback of $43.84/BOE (+48% YoY), and operating costs of $11.88/BOE (full‑year operating cost guidance cut to $12/BOE at midpoint, a $0.50/BOE reduction worth ~ $70M in FCF). Net debt was reduced by $900M to $2.5B (~2.5x debt/cash flow) and is expected to trend toward ~$2.0B by year‑end; tax pools total ~ $9B. Hedging covers H2‑2026 ~33% of oil at ~CAD94/bbl and 28% of gas at ~$4/Mcf, and 2027 hedges cover ~26% of oil at CAD93 and 13% of gas at ~$3/Mcf. Additional benchmark and realization metrics: Q2 WTI USD92.79/bbl, realized crude & condensate CAD127.82/bbl (MSW +$2.52, condensate +$2.69), AECO $1.63/Mcf, realized gas $2.29/Mcf; asset highlights include Kaybob capacity targeted at 115–120k BOE/d (forecasting $800–900M annual operating FCF at $70–$80 WTI), ~10,500 drilling locations (4,700 unconventional), and improved capital efficiency (~12% better to $18,500/flowing BOE from $21,000).Whitecap Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.24B | 5.17B | 3.34B | 3.23B | 3.92B | 2.28B |
| Gross Profit | 2.82B | 1.61B | 2.07B | 2.03B | 2.72B | 1.48B |
| EBITDA | 4.22B | 3.23B | 1.94B | 2.07B | 2.46B | 5.13B |
| Net Income | 1.42B | 984.60M | 812.30M | 889.00M | 1.68B | 1.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.21B | 19.29B | 9.95B | 9.60B | 9.53B | 6.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.40M | 59.40M | 362.30M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 2.77B | 4.40B | 1.14B | 1.38B | 1.87B | 1.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.72B | 8.29B | 4.20B | 4.13B | 4.48B | 3.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.49B | 11.00B | 5.75B | 5.48B | 5.05B | 3.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.01B | 609.40M | 696.80M | 617.60M | 1.49B | 564.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.39B | 2.69B | 1.83B | 1.74B | 2.18B | 1.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.43B | -1.35B | -563.80M | -765.60M | -2.50B | -387.38M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.95B | -1.64B | -907.40M | -976.90M | 313.40M | -736.53M |
Whitecap Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
17.51
Price Trends
16.53
Positive
16.11
Positive
14.31
Positive
Market Momentum
0.50
Negative
67.76
Neutral
81.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.81, above the 50-day MA of 16.53, and above the 200-day MA of 14.31, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:WCP.
Whitecap Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$22.12B | 16.00 | 12.87% | 3.90% | 91.52% | -20.09% | |
77 Outperform | C$19.21B | 13.73 | 16.64% | 2.42% | 25.80% | -2.85% | |
75 Outperform | C$8.36B | 34.84 | 9.48% | 2.90% | 6.68% | 11.02% | |
73 Outperform | C$9.49B | 11.48 | 17.02% | 46.75% | -8.60% | 18.87% | |
67 Neutral | C$24.49B | 64.31 | 2.37% | 4.17% | 4.36% | -75.85% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$6.55B | 189.82 | 1.34% | 1.25% | 7.64% | -86.01% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:WCP
Whitecap Resources
18.70
8.75
87.92%
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13.61
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TSE:PSK
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36.23
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52.43%
TSE:TOU
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62.38
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10.57%
TSE:ARX
ARC Resources
33.91
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43.69%
TSE:SCR
Strathcona Resources
45.35
17.87
65.04%
Whitecap Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Whitecap Confirms August Monthly Dividend, Underscoring Stable Payout Strategy
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
Whitecap Resources Inc., a Canadian oil and natural gas producer operating in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, positions itself as a reliable dividend payer with a focus on responsible development and investment-grade financial discipline. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.