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Tamarack Valley Energy
(TSX:TVE)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$16.00
▲(19.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/29/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (strong cash generation and reduced leverage) and supportive technical uptrend. These positives are tempered by weak valuation signals, led by an extremely high P/E and only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
TTM operating cash flow of ~C$920M and free cash flow of ~C$553M show that the producing asset base is currently converting operations into substantial cash. This supports debt reduction, reinvestment, and resilience across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin Bottom-Line Returns
Despite stronger operating results, TTM net margin is only ~1.5% and ROE is ~1.3%. Limited bottom-line conversion means changes in prices, costs, or non-operating items can materially affect earnings and constrain the durability of reported improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
TTM operating cash flow of ~C$920M and free cash flow of ~C$553M show that the producing asset base is currently converting operations into substantial cash. This supports debt reduction, reinvestment, and resilience across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$6.65B
Dividend Yield1.29%
Average Volume (3M)2.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.0
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth10.65%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees106
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding472,308,560
10 Day Avg. Volume2,896,612
30 Day Avg. Volume2,557,741
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.89
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)2.97
P/FCF Ratio10.56
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$16.92Price Target Upside26.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.65B
Tamarack Valley Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is an energy company primarily engaged in the upstream activities of acquiring, exploring, developing, and producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its operations are concentrated within the Western Ca...
How the Company Makes Money
TVE makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—into Canadian and North American markets. Revenue is largely driven by (1) production volumes (barrels of oil and barrels of oil equivalent), (2) real...
Tamarack Valley Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements, including record production, successful debt reduction, and strategic acquisitions that enhance Tamarack Valley's position. Despite challenges such as oil price volatility and temporary production reductions, the overall sentiment is positive due to strong operational and financial performance.Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Production
Tamarack Valley Energy set a new corporate production record, averaging 70,260 BOEs per day in Q2 2025, with a peak of over 74,300 BOE per day in April.
Negative Updates
Impact of Oil Price Volatility
Despite performance improvements, Tamarack Valley faced an 8% drop in WTI oil prices, affecting financial results.
Read all updates
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record-Breaking Production
Tamarack Valley Energy set a new corporate production record, averaging 70,260 BOEs per day in Q2 2025, with a peak of over 74,300 BOE per day in April.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Tamarack Valley Energy Limited Q2 2025 conference call, the company announced numerous positive updates in its guidance metrics. Tamarack achieved a new corporate production record, averaging 70,260 BOE per day in Q2, with April production reaching over 74,300 BOE per day. The company's Q2 debt-adjusted production per share increased by 24% year-over-year, reflecting the compounding impact of share buybacks and organic growth. Tamarack revised its 2025 production guidance upward by 3% and reduced capital spending by 7%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and cost improvements. The company also reported a year-on-year net debt reduction of 19% to $711 million. A strategic $51.5 million Clearwater tuck-in acquisition was completed, adding 1,100 barrels per day of heavy oil production and increasing Clearwater land holdings by 17%. Tamarack's waterflood program continues to demonstrate success, with the Clearwater growing 16% year-over-year and water injection rates reaching 20,000 barrels per day, aiming for over 30,000 barrels per day by year-end. Financially, Tamarack generated Q2 adjusted funds flow of $197 million ($0.39 per share) and free funds flow of $133 million ($0.26 per share), with share repurchases totaling 10.1 million shares year-to-date. The company's 2025 production guidance range was increased to 67,000 to 69,000 BOE per day, with capital guidance reduced to $400 million to $420 million, reflecting a 7% decrease.Tamarack Valley Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.67B | 1.35B | 1.74B | 1.41B | 1.46B | 701.05M |
| Gross Profit | 853.14M | 498.57M | 584.17M | 418.26M | 615.12M | 268.63M |
| EBITDA | 1.04B | 552.93M | 883.89M | 884.22M | 866.98M | 753.59M |
| Net Income | 372.08M | -36.35M | 162.22M | 94.20M | 345.20M | 390.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.15B | 3.36B | 3.99B | 4.21B | 4.62B | 2.33B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 541.38M | 5.44M | 7.39M | 2.22M | -75.84M | -10.53M |
| Total Debt | 325.24M | 697.52M | 771.89M | 839.10M | 1.22B | 487.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.28B | 1.54B | 1.87B | 2.03B | 2.46B | 1.07B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.88B | 1.83B | 2.12B | 2.17B | 2.16B | 1.26B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 552.80M | 378.88M | 380.56M | 115.17M | -606.52M | -349.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 919.92M | 778.90M | 833.21M | 631.63M | 805.38M | 297.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 384.46M | -403.73M | -453.38M | -378.02M | -1.27B | -581.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -765.68M | -377.11M | -374.66M | -253.61M | 465.18M | 283.17M |
Tamarack Valley Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.37
Price Trends
13.77
Positive
13.32
Positive
12.13
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Positive
48.98
Neutral
26.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TVE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.23, below the 50-day MA of 13.77, and above the 200-day MA of 12.13, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TVE.
Tamarack Valley Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$5.81B | 24.39 | 12.76% | ― | 2.54% | -45.29% | |
73 Outperform | C$5.33B | 10.64 | 16.96% | 5.34% | 26.11% | 45.27% | |
68 Neutral | C$6.65B | 18.02 | 20.30% | 1.29% | 10.65% | ― | |
67 Neutral | C$5.26B | -8.18 | -26.39% | 1.20% | ― | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$5.11B | 43.12 | 4.30% | 1.72% | -28.28% | -92.06% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
14.09
7.92
128.22%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
7.52
4.22
128.16%
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12.00
4.95
70.21%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
34.96
12.51
55.74%
TSE:PEY
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25.85
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31.93%
Tamarack Valley Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Tamarack Valley Energy Posts Strong Q3 and Moves to Create $10 Billion Clearwater Pure Play
Positive
Oct 28, 2026
Tamarack Valley Energy reported strong third-quarter 2026 results, driven by a 16% year-over-year increase in Clearwater production to 55,298 boe per day and robust cash generation. The company invested heavily in drilling and waterflood infrastru...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsM&A Transactions
Tamarack and Headwater in $10 Billion Merger to Form Clearwater Oil Leader
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
Tamarack Valley Energy and Headwater Exploration have agreed to a $10 billion all-stock merger that will create the largest publicly traded pure-play Clearwater oil producer in North America, with pro forma production above 80,000 boe per day and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.