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Athabasca Oil
(TSX:ATH)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$13.50
▲(29.06% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/06/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—especially low leverage and solid cash generation—offset by commodity-cycle volatility and slightly negative TTM revenue growth. Technicals add support due to an uptrend above key moving averages, but near-overbought RSI limits upside. Valuation is a meaningful drag given the P/E (~25.44) and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage reduces financial risk and preserves flexibility through commodity downturns. A stronger equity base and limited debt burden can support sustaining investment, protect liquidity, and allow management to respond to changing oil-market conditions without relying heavily on external financing.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue trend
The recent top-line contraction indicates that the company is not currently benefiting from sustained revenue expansion. Lower revenue can constrain operating leverage and make future earnings more dependent on pricing, production performance, or cost control rather than durable volume growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage reduces financial risk and preserves flexibility through commodity downturns. A stronger equity base and limited debt burden can support sustaining investment, protect liquidity, and allow management to respond to changing oil-market conditions without relying heavily on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Athabasca Oil (ATH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$5.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.4
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-6.76%
EPS Growth-46.80%
CountryCA
Employees187
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding484,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,270,152
30 Day Avg. Volume5,905,897
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.98
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio17.73
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$12.00Price Target Upside14.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.44B
Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Athabasca Oil Corporation, based in Calgary, Canada, is an energy company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resources across Alberta's Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company segments its oper...
How the Company Makes Money
Athabasca Oil makes money primarily by producing and selling crude oil (predominantly oil sands-derived bitumen/heavy oil) from its operated oil sands assets. Revenue is generated based on the volumes of oil produced and the realized sales price, ...
Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.31B | 1.44B | 1.20B | 1.50B | 1.02B |
| Gross Profit | 444.56M | 423.06M | 751.90M | 414.79M | 731.03M | 564.58M |
| EBITDA | 494.76M | 508.65M | 791.54M | 110.46M | 370.67M | 649.06M |
| Net Income | 228.69M | 245.11M | 467.74M | -51.22M | 572.27M | 457.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.55B | 2.47B | 2.05B | 2.23B | 1.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 291.73M | 316.37M | 344.84M | 343.31M | 197.53M | 223.06M |
| Total Debt | 205.58M | 201.86M | 199.73M | 185.54M | 206.13M | 384.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 650.35M | 657.43M | 610.88M | 465.18M | 519.86M | 716.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.88B | 1.77B | 1.75B | 1.58B | 1.71B | 1.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 417.68M | 197.91M | 289.50M | 165.69M | 168.17M | 102.11M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 531.64M | 520.46M | 557.54M | 305.53M | 315.62M | 194.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -380.51M | -305.77M | -251.34M | 20.56M | -146.00M | 22.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -173.77M | -230.74M | -328.68M | -170.73M | -204.95M | -159.20M |
Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
10.46
Price Trends
11.10
Positive
10.89
Positive
10.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.33
Positive
62.46
Neutral
16.08
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.69, below the 50-day MA of 11.10, and above the 200-day MA of 10.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.
Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$5.81B | 25.44 | 12.57% | ― | -6.76% | -46.80% | |
67 Neutral | C$5.41B | -8.43 | -26.39% | 1.16% | ― | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$5.10B | 43.03 | 4.30% | 1.72% | -28.28% | -92.06% | |
62 Neutral | C$7.09B | 209.34 | 1.34% | 1.21% | 7.64% | -86.01% | |
52 Neutral | C$4.53B | 150.68 | 2.34% | ― | 4.38% | -57.68% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
12.01
5.26
77.93%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
7.74
4.60
146.65%
TSE:POU
Paramount Resources
34.89
13.16
60.59%
TSE:TVE
Tamarack Valley Energy
15.01
8.77
140.54%
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
40.19
18.37
84.19%
Athabasca Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Athabasca Oil to Be Acquired by Cenovus in $5.8 Billion Deal
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
Athabasca Oil has agreed to be acquired by Cenovus Energy in a cash-and-share transaction valuing the company at about $5.8 billion, with a purchase price of $12.00 per share that represents a 14% premium to Athabasca’s recent trading levels...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.