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International Petroleum Corporation
(TSX:IPCO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
C$31.00
▼(-10.89% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back mainly by deteriorating profitability and sustained negative TTM free cash flow, despite a moderate balance sheet. Technicals also remain weak with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. The earnings call provided a meaningful positive offset via Blackrod Phase 1 execution and improving cash flow trajectory, but valuation is a clear risk given the very high P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Blackrod Phase 1 growth project
Blackrod adds a large, visible production platform, with 311 MMboe of Phase 1 2P reserves and approval for 80,000 bbl/d. Its successful start can support durable production growth and improve operating leverage over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Sharp profitability deterioration
The multi-year decline in gross and net margins shows that modest revenue growth is not translating efficiently into earnings. Lower profitability reduces resilience to commodity weakness and may constrain internally funded investment or shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Blackrod Phase 1 growth project
Blackrod adds a large, visible production platform, with 311 MMboe of Phase 1 2P reserves and approval for 80,000 bbl/d. Its successful start can support durable production growth and improve operating leverage over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
International Petroleum Corporation (IPCO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)180.89K
Price to Earnings (P/E)137.8
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth4.38%
EPS Growth-57.68%
CountryCA
Employees297
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding112,826,750
10 Day Avg. Volume140,324
30 Day Avg. Volume180,887
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.19
Price to Sales (P/S)2.63
P/FCF Ratio-13.32
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$37.70Price Target Upside8.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.18B
International Petroleum Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
International Petroleum Corporation, established in 2017, is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada. This company is actively engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It maintains a collection of energy ass...
How the Company Makes Money
IPC primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil and natural gas (and related hydrocarbons) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to buyers at prevailing market or contr...
International Petroleum Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial inflection: a transformational milestone was reached with Blackrod Phase 1 coming on stream ahead of schedule and on budget, Q2 showed strong operating cash flow and the first quarterly positive free cash flow since 2023, guidance (production, OpEx, and CapEx) was maintained, liquidity headroom is healthy and differential hedges are in-the-money. Headwinds are manageable in the near term — a Q3 OpEx bump from expensed enhancement activity, weak Canadian gas realizations, limited benefit from Q2 spot price spikes due to prior hedges, and a still-elevated net debt position with modest cash on hand — but these do not outweigh the key operational achievements and the clear path toward larger cash generation in Q4 and beyond.Positive Updates
Production in Line with Guidance
Q2 average production of 42,200 BOE/day (H1 average ~42,600 BOE/day) met guidance; full-year 2026 production guidance maintained at 44,000–47,000 BOE/day. Current production mix ~70% oil / 30% gas.
Negative Updates
Partial Hedging Limited Benefit from High Q2 Prices
Approximately 40% of production was hedged during the spike in Q2 dated-Brent (>USD 100/bbl), meaning IPC did not fully capture the higher spot prices; benchmark hedges rolled off as of July 1 leaving full exposure to WTI/Brent going forward (increases near-term price volatility risk).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production in Line with Guidance
Q2 average production of 42,200 BOE/day (H1 average ~42,600 BOE/day) met guidance; full-year 2026 production guidance maintained at 44,000–47,000 BOE/day. Current production mix ~70% oil / 30% gas.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained 2026 guidance with production of 44,000–47,000 BOE/d (Q2: 42,200 BOE/d; H1 avg ~42,600 BOE/d) and operating costs of USD 18–20/BOE (Q2: USD 19.10/BOE; Q3 expected slightly higher before falling in Q4). Full‑year CapEx is unchanged at USD 163 million (Q2 spend USD 49M; H1 ~USD 120M), and operating cash flow is forecast at USD 230–330M assuming Brent of USD 70–90/bbl (Q2 OCF USD 67M; H1 OCF USD 134M). Free cash flow is guided to USD 10–110M under the same Brent assumption (Q2 FCF +USD 4M, first positive FCF since 2023), net debt stood at ~USD 509–510M (down ~USD 4M QoQ) with >USD 150M undrawn liquidity, and as of July 1 production is fully exposed to WTI/Brent (prior ~40% hedged through low/mid‑$60s WTI and mid/high‑$60s Brent that rolled off); some differentials and gas hedges remain (WTI‑WCS hedged at ~‑$12.5, ~$2 in the money, ~USD 6M positive MTM). Key project metrics: Blackrod Phase 1 first oil (end‑May), plateau 30,000 bbl/d, 311 MMboe 2P (NPV ~USD 1.4B @10% per YE‑25 deck, 1/1/2026 breakeven $47 WTI) and regulatory approval to 80,000 bbl/d, and portfolio mix is ~70% oil / 30% gas with a bias toward higher oil weighting and stronger cash flow into H2 and 2027.International Petroleum Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 756.33M | 772.09M | 913.18M | 853.91M | 1.13B | 741.03M |
| Gross Profit | 129.17M | 128.12M | 210.17M | 362.60M | 652.31M | 243.91M |
| EBITDA | 227.08M | 218.06M | 310.01M | 365.28M | 620.26M | 311.45M |
| Net Income | 21.28M | 28.94M | 102.20M | 172.95M | 337.68M | 146.03M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 1.98B | 1.95B | 2.06B | 1.68B | 1.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.25M | 7.04M | 246.59M | 517.07M | 483.24M | 18.81M |
| Total Debt | 517.14M | 486.86M | 448.28M | 446.97M | 308.84M | 112.69M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.10B | 1.05B | 1.01B | 982.73M | 714.29M | 426.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 908.66M | 927.03M | 939.32M | 1.08B | 965.14M | 847.39M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -103.09M | -152.21M | -168.99M | 32.91M | 444.00M | 236.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 160.71M | 194.00M | 266.09M | 346.15M | 601.82M | 281.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -259.33M | -346.21M | -434.86M | -352.47M | -157.81M | -44.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 36.21M | -74.49M | -107.10M | 37.56M | 11.11M | -224.58M |
International Petroleum Corporation Technical Analysis
Positive
34.79
Price Trends
32.21
Positive
34.05
Positive
31.85
Positive
Market Momentum
0.81
Positive
55.89
Neutral
50.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IPCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.22, above the 50-day MA of 32.21, and above the 200-day MA of 31.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:IPCO.
International Petroleum Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$3.38B | 17.99 | 24.24% | 3.21% | 12.71% | 0.77% | |
71 Outperform | C$2.89B | 20.53 | 13.88% | 6.15% | 0.67% | 11.91% | |
70 Outperform | C$5.26B | 23.32 | 12.57% | ― | -6.76% | -46.80% | |
67 Neutral | C$4.71B | -7.33 | -26.39% | 1.34% | -8.89% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
52 Neutral | C$3.90B | 137.83 | 2.34% | ― | 4.38% | -57.68% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:IPCO
International Petroleum Corporation
36.00
12.02
50.13%
TSE:BTE
Baytex Energy
6.74
3.71
122.52%
TSE:ATH
Athabasca Oil
11.01
4.83
78.16%
TSE:HWX
Headwater Exploration
14.03
7.43
112.58%
TSE:FRU
Freehold Royalties
17.57
5.19
41.97%
International Petroleum Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
International Petroleum Steps Up Share Buybacks Under Ongoing NCIB
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
International Petroleum Corporation has repurchased 205,334 common shares between August 10 and 14, 2026 under its ongoing normal course issuer bid. The buybacks, executed on both Nasdaq Stockholm and the Toronto Stock Exchange through appointed b...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
International Petroleum Corp. Expands Share Buybacks Under Normal Course Issuer Bid
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
International Petroleum Corporation has repurchased 72,282 common shares under its ongoing normal course issuer bid between August 6 and 7, 2026, across the Toronto and Nasdaq Stockholm exchanges. The repurchases, executed via Pareto Securities AB...
Business Operations and Strategy
FireFly Metals boosts Green Bay copper-gold resource with high-grade drill results
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
FireFly Metals has reported another set of high-grade copper-gold drilling results from its Green Bay project in Canada, reinforcing the quality and continuity of mineralisation across the upper VMS lenses, the footwall zone and the high-grade cor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.