Want to see TSE:TOU full AI Analyst Report?
Tourmaline Oil (TOU) AI Stock Analysis
Top Page
Tourmaline Oil
(TSX:TOU)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (low leverage and strong operating cash flow) and a favorable earnings-call outlook (cost reductions, FCF expectations, and guidance maintained). Technicals are supportive but appear overbought, while valuation is the main drag due to the very high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Tourmaline Oil (TOU) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 26.67B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.28%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.24M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 70.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.09
- Revenue Growth
- 4.36%
- EPS Growth
- -75.85%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 544
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Tourmaline Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tourmaline Oil Corp. is an energy firm focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas deposits. Its operations are primarily situated within the vast Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company b...
How the Company Makes Money
Tourmaline makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them under commodity pricing frameworks. The company’s revenue is mainly generated from (1) natural gas sales and (2) liquids sales (condensate and natural gas liquids), with real...
Tourmaline Oil Earnings Call Summary
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial positives: robust quarterly cash flow (CAD 786M), meaningful free cash flow generation (CAD 192M in Q2; CAD 880M estimate for 2026 at strip), continued well-performance improvements (NE BC +28%, Deep Basin +14%), lower OpEx (down 10% YoY), reduced net debt (CAD 1.5B) and progress on an accretive Northeast BC infrastructure program and LPG export expansion. Offsetting these positives are near-term market-driven actions: deliberate production curtailments and storage builds due to weak gas prices, deferred completion activity (wells waiting to be fracked), a one-year pause before Phase 2 that delays additional growth, and longer-term uncertainty around new demand projects (data centers, West Coast LNG). Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, with management prioritizing balance-sheet strength and shareholder returns while preserving upside exposure to improving gas and international prices.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated detailed operational and financial guidance: Q2 cash flow was CAD 786 million with CAD 192 million of free cash flow, Q2 average production 594,000 BOE/d (just below the 595–605k guidance), full‑year 2026 production guidance 620–640k BOE/d with a 2026 exit target of 660k BOE/d, and storage injections averaged 8,900 BOE/d (expected to be withdrawn in Q4/into Q1‑2027); 67 wells are ready to frac with 21 more to bring on line. Balance sheet and cost metrics include net debt of CAD 1.5 billion (below the CAD 1.75 billion target), Q2 OpEx of CAD 4.59/BOE (down 10% YoY and 3% QoQ) and full‑year OpEx guidance of CAD 4.50–4.60/BOE (7–9% below 2025), with an ongoing target to cut aggregate operating and transportation costs by CAD 1.50/BOE by 2031. Capital and cash‑return guidance: full‑year 2026 E&P capital budget CAD 2.55 billion (after a CAD 350 million reduction), 2026 free cash flow now estimated at CAD 880 million at current strip, and the board intends to declare a CAD 0.50/share quarterly base dividend payable Sept. 29; the Akin expansion remains on track for Q4 and five of six NE BC regional connectors are complete. Commercial and resource metrics: ~1 Bcf/d of gas hedged for the remainder of 2026 at a weighted CAD 4.97/Mcf, ~55% more LPG export exposure via the AltaGas Ridley Island (Reef) deal, 220 MMBtu exposure to TTF/JKM (both trading >US$15/MMBtu), the NE BC infra project will add ~1.1 Bcf/d and >50,000 bbl/d of condensate/NGLs and is expected to generate >CAD 400 million of structural incremental annual cash flow versus H1‑2025, Q2 drilling/completions were 43/33, and well performance is up ~28% in NE BC Montney and ~14% in the Alberta Deep Basin versus prior five‑year averages; the Aduro acquisition cost CAD 100 million and added 174 net Tier‑1 locations (~CAD 462k/location).
Tourmaline Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong balance sheet strength (very low leverage; debt-to-equity ~0.07) and solid operating cash flow support resilience. However, profitability is notably below peak 2021–2024 levels, gross margin is thin (~7.4%), and free cash flow is relatively light (TTM ~0.21B; ~12% of net income) with negative FCF growth, limiting near-term cash-return capacity if sustained.
Income Statement
67PositiveBalance Sheet
84Very PositiveCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.81B | 5.82B | 4.35B | 4.84B | 7.10B | 4.77B |
| Gross Profit | 303.70M | 321.04M | 2.20B | 2.95B | 5.37B | 3.43B |
| EBITDA | 3.62B | 3.41B | 3.14B | 3.33B | 7.06B | 2.58B |
| Net Income | 377.39M | 262.67M | 1.26B | 1.74B | 4.49B | 2.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.84B | 22.87B | 22.70B | 20.48B | 19.04B | 16.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Debt | 1.32B | 1.89B | 1.30B | 1.13B | 629.26M | 880.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.85B | 7.43B | 7.15B | 6.47B | 5.35B | 4.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.99B | 15.44B | 15.54B | 14.02B | 13.69B | 11.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 208.22M | 379.12M | 470.63M | 1.67B | 2.74B | 864.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.14B | 3.39B | 2.73B | 4.41B | 4.69B | 2.85B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.89B | -2.73B | -1.64B | -2.60B | -1.97B | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.25B | -653.49M | -1.09B | -1.80B | -2.72B | -1.69B |
Tourmaline Oil Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 68.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.39, above the 50-day MA of 63.11, and above the 200-day MA of 62.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.93 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TOU.
Tourmaline Oil Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:PEY73Outperform- TSE:TOU71Outperform
TSE:AAV67Neutral
TSE:BIR61Neutral
TSE:KEL60Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:PEY | 73Outperform | CAD 5.33B | 10.64 | 16.96% | 5.34% | 26.11% | 45.27% |
| TSE:TOU | 71Outperform | CAD 26.67B | 70.76 | 2.37% | 3.28% | 4.36% | -75.85% |
| TSE:AAV | 67Neutral | CAD 1.92B | 22.64 | 8.07% | ― | 13.99% | 132.54% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| TSE:BIR | 61Neutral | CAD 2.03B | 21.45 | 4.22% | 1.63% | 10.48% | 23.40% |
| TSE:KEL | 60Neutral | CAD 2.40B | 41.94 | 4.95% | ― | 30.30% | -24.69% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:TOU | Tourmaline Oil | 68.64 | 9.32 | 15.71% | |
| TSE:AAV | Advantage Energy Ltd. | 11.49 | -0.03 | -0.26% | |
| TSE:BIR | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | 7.38 | 0.81 | 12.28% | |
| TSE:KEL | Kelt Exploration | 11.81 | 5.00 | 73.42% | |
| TSE:PEY | Peyto Exploration & Dev | 25.85 | 6.26 | 31.93% |
Tourmaline Oil Corporate Events
Tourmaline trims Topaz stake in $330.6 million secondary share sale
NeutralTourmaline Oil has completed a $330.6 million bought deal secondary offering of 11.5 million Topaz Energy common shares at $28.75 per share, including the full exercise of the over-allotment option. Topaz did not receive any proceeds from the sale, w...
Tourmaline Monetizes Topaz Stake to Fund Share Buybacks and Boost Capital Returns
PositiveTourmaline Oil Corp., a Calgary-based natural gas and oil producer listed on the TSX, operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin with growing exposure to international and premium markets. Its strategy emphasizes strong cash generat...
Tourmaline Oil Declares C$0.50 Quarterly Dividend for September 2026
PositiveTourmaline Oil Corp. has declared a quarterly cash dividend of C$0.50 per common share, payable on September 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 15, 2026. The dividend has been designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian income tax...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026