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Tourmaline Oil
(TSX:TOU)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$76.00
▲(23.36% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (low leverage and strong operating cash flow) and a favorable earnings-call outlook (cost reductions, FCF expectations, and guidance maintained). Technicals are supportive but appear overbought, while valuation is the main drag due to the very high P/E despite a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage gives Tourmaline meaningful financial flexibility across commodity cycles. A relatively modest debt burden can reduce balance-sheet stress, preserve borrowing capacity, and support continued investment or shareholder distributions when operating conditions weaken.
Negative Factors
Commodity-price exposure
Tourmaline remains materially exposed to natural-gas pricing and regional market conditions because production revenue depends on realized commodity prices. Weak gas prices can reduce margins, delay development activity, and create volatility in earnings and cash flow despite efficient operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage gives Tourmaline meaningful financial flexibility across commodity cycles. A relatively modest debt burden can reduce balance-sheet stress, preserve borrowing capacity, and support continued investment or shareholder distributions when operating conditions weaken.
Read all positive factors
Tourmaline Oil (TOU) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$26.67B
Dividend Yield3.28%
Average Volume (3M)2.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)70.8
Beta (1Y)0.09
Revenue Growth4.36%
EPS Growth-75.85%
CountryCA
Employees544
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.97
Shares Outstanding388,601,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,955,570
30 Day Avg. Volume2,367,718
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.52
Price to Sales (P/S)4.04
P/FCF Ratio61.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$68.94Price Target Upside11.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)4.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.57B
Tourmaline Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tourmaline Oil Corp. is an energy firm focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas deposits. Its operations are primarily situated within the vast Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The compan...
How the Company Makes Money
Tourmaline makes money primarily by producing hydrocarbons and selling them under commodity pricing frameworks. The company’s revenue is mainly generated from (1) natural gas sales and (2) liquids sales (condensate and natural gas liquids), with r...
Tourmaline Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial positives: robust quarterly cash flow (CAD 786M), meaningful free cash flow generation (CAD 192M in Q2; CAD 880M estimate for 2026 at strip), continued well-performance improvements (NE BC +28%, Deep Basin +14%), lower OpEx (down 10% YoY), reduced net debt (CAD 1.5B) and progress on an accretive Northeast BC infrastructure program and LPG export expansion. Offsetting these positives are near-term market-driven actions: deliberate production curtailments and storage builds due to weak gas prices, deferred completion activity (wells waiting to be fracked), a one-year pause before Phase 2 that delays additional growth, and longer-term uncertainty around new demand projects (data centers, West Coast LNG). Overall, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, with management prioritizing balance-sheet strength and shareholder returns while preserving upside exposure to improving gas and international prices.Positive Updates
Strong cash flow and free cash flow
Q2 cash flow of CAD 786 million and Q2 free cash flow of CAD 192 million; full-year 2026 free cash flow now estimated at CAD 880 million at current strip pricing.
Negative Updates
Deliberate production shortfall and activity deferrals
Q2 production averaged 594,000 BOE/d, marginally below guidance by management choice because of increased gas storage injections, deferred EP activity in response to low natural gas prices, and some price-related shut-ins. The company has 67 wells ready to frac and 21 wells to turn in line, awaiting improved prices.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash flow and free cash flow
Q2 cash flow of CAD 786 million and Q2 free cash flow of CAD 192 million; full-year 2026 free cash flow now estimated at CAD 880 million at current strip pricing.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated detailed operational and financial guidance: Q2 cash flow was CAD 786 million with CAD 192 million of free cash flow, Q2 average production 594,000 BOE/d (just below the 595–605k guidance), full‑year 2026 production guidance 620–640k BOE/d with a 2026 exit target of 660k BOE/d, and storage injections averaged 8,900 BOE/d (expected to be withdrawn in Q4/into Q1‑2027); 67 wells are ready to frac with 21 more to bring on line. Balance sheet and cost metrics include net debt of CAD 1.5 billion (below the CAD 1.75 billion target), Q2 OpEx of CAD 4.59/BOE (down 10% YoY and 3% QoQ) and full‑year OpEx guidance of CAD 4.50–4.60/BOE (7–9% below 2025), with an ongoing target to cut aggregate operating and transportation costs by CAD 1.50/BOE by 2031. Capital and cash‑return guidance: full‑year 2026 E&P capital budget CAD 2.55 billion (after a CAD 350 million reduction), 2026 free cash flow now estimated at CAD 880 million at current strip, and the board intends to declare a CAD 0.50/share quarterly base dividend payable Sept. 29; the Akin expansion remains on track for Q4 and five of six NE BC regional connectors are complete. Commercial and resource metrics: ~1 Bcf/d of gas hedged for the remainder of 2026 at a weighted CAD 4.97/Mcf, ~55% more LPG export exposure via the AltaGas Ridley Island (Reef) deal, 220 MMBtu exposure to TTF/JKM (both trading >US$15/MMBtu), the NE BC infra project will add ~1.1 Bcf/d and >50,000 bbl/d of condensate/NGLs and is expected to generate >CAD 400 million of structural incremental annual cash flow versus H1‑2025, Q2 drilling/completions were 43/33, and well performance is up ~28% in NE BC Montney and ~14% in the Alberta Deep Basin versus prior five‑year averages; the Aduro acquisition cost CAD 100 million and added 174 net Tier‑1 locations (~CAD 462k/location).Tourmaline Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.81B | 5.82B | 4.35B | 4.84B | 7.10B | 4.77B |
| Gross Profit | 303.70M | 321.04M | 2.20B | 2.95B | 5.37B | 3.43B |
| EBITDA | 3.62B | 3.41B | 3.14B | 3.33B | 7.06B | 2.58B |
| Net Income | 377.39M | 262.67M | 1.26B | 1.74B | 4.49B | 2.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 22.84B | 22.87B | 22.70B | 20.48B | 19.04B | 16.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 1.32B | 1.89B | 1.30B | 1.13B | 629.26M | 880.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 6.85B | 7.43B | 7.15B | 6.47B | 5.35B | 4.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.99B | 15.44B | 15.54B | 14.02B | 13.69B | 11.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 208.22M | 379.12M | 470.63M | 1.67B | 2.74B | 864.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.14B | 3.39B | 2.73B | 4.41B | 4.69B | 2.85B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.89B | -2.73B | -1.64B | -2.60B | -1.97B | -1.38B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.25B | -653.49M | -1.09B | -1.80B | -2.72B | -1.69B |
Tourmaline Oil Technical Analysis
Positive
61.61
Price Trends
63.11
Positive
61.92
Positive
62.33
Positive
Market Momentum
1.59
Negative
75.93
Negative
88.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TOU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.39, below the 50-day MA of 63.11, and below the 200-day MA of 62.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.93 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TOU.
Tourmaline Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$5.33B | 10.64 | 16.96% | 5.34% | 26.11% | 45.27% | |
71 Outperform | C$26.67B | 70.76 | 2.37% | 3.28% | 4.36% | -75.85% | |
67 Neutral | C$1.92B | 22.64 | 8.07% | 17.95% | 13.99% | 132.54% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | C$2.03B | 21.45 | 4.22% | 1.63% | 10.48% | 23.40% | |
60 Neutral | C$2.40B | 41.94 | 4.95% | ― | 30.30% | -24.69% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:TOU
Tourmaline Oil
68.64
9.11
15.29%
TSE:AAV
Advantage Energy
11.49
0.36
3.23%
TSE:BIR
Birchcliff Energy
7.38
0.96
14.86%
TSE:KEL
Kelt Exploration
11.81
5.14
77.06%
TSE:PEY
Peyto Exploration & Dev
25.85
6.53
33.81%
Tourmaline Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tourmaline trims Topaz stake in $330.6 million secondary share sale
Neutral
Oct 8, 2026
Tourmaline Oil has completed a $330.6 million bought deal secondary offering of 11.5 million Topaz Energy common shares at $28.75 per share, including the full exercise of the over-allotment option. Topaz did not receive any proceeds from the sale...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Tourmaline Monetizes Topaz Stake to Fund Share Buybacks and Boost Capital Returns
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
Tourmaline Oil Corp., a Calgary-based natural gas and oil producer listed on the TSX, operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin with growing exposure to international and premium markets. Its strategy emphasizes strong cash gene...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Tourmaline Oil Declares C$0.50 Quarterly Dividend for September 2026
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
Tourmaline Oil Corp. has declared a quarterly cash dividend of C$0.50 per common share, payable on September 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 15, 2026. The dividend has been designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian income ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.