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Suncor Energy
(NYSE:SU)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$95.00
â–²(2.32% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, improving leverage, and especially robust cash generation) and a very upbeat earnings call highlighting record results and increased shareholder returns. These positives are tempered by weaker near-term technical momentum and the inherent cyclicality/variability of results, while valuation remains supportive with a moderate P/E and solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Suncor’s sustained, high operating and free cash flow (operating cash roughly 1.4x net income TTM) provides durable internal funding for capex, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion improves resilience through cycles and supports continued buybacks and dividend capacity.
Negative Factors
Cyclicality and earnings variability
As an integrated oil & gas operator, Suncor’s revenue, margins and free cash flow remain materially exposed to commodity price swings and refining spreads. This structural cyclicality creates volatility in earnings and cash generation, complicating medium-term forecasting and capital allocation consistency.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Suncor’s sustained, high operating and free cash flow (operating cash roughly 1.4x net income TTM) provides durable internal funding for capex, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion improves resilience through cycles and supports continued buybacks and dividend capacity.
Read all positive factors
Suncor Energy (SU) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$98.98B
Dividend Yield2.83%
Average Volume (3M)4.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.2
Beta (1Y)0.23
Revenue Growth13.75%
EPS Growth65.44%
CountryCA
Employees15,424
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.51
Shares Outstanding1,180,745,200
10 Day Avg. Volume2,877,136
30 Day Avg. Volume4,743,137
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio4.56
Price to Book (P/B)1.65
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio10.72
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$99.72Price Target Upside7.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)9.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$60.32B
Suncor Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Suncor Energy Inc., an integrated energy powerhouse founded in 1917 and headquartered in Calgary, Canada, was formerly known as Suncor Inc. until its name change in April 1997. The company primarily concentrates on the extensive development of pet...
How the Company Makes Money
Suncor makes money primarily by producing, processing, and selling hydrocarbons and refined products across several linked business segments. (1) Upstream production: Suncor earns revenue from selling crude oil and related production (e.g., bitume...
Suncor Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record cash generation, record downstream results, higher utilization and material turnaround cost and duration improvements. Management increased shareholder returns and highlighted expansion of trading and export capabilities. The primary negatives were a one-off but significant weather-related production hit in Q2, an RVO-driven margin accounting headwind, and remaining planned turnarounds in H2 that carry execution risk. On balance, the positives — structural improvements, record cash flow, cost reductions and stronger shareholder returns — materially outweigh the transitory challenges.Positive Updates
Record cash generation (AFFO)
Adjusted funds from operations of $5.3 billion in 2Q26 — nearly double year-ago levels and tied with the all-time quarterly record set in 2Q22. AFFO per share was $4.52, nearly 20% higher than the comparable 2022 quarter, delivered with WTI averaging ~$93/bbl (vs ~$108/bbl in 2Q22).
Negative Updates
Severe weather materially impacted Q2 mining productivity
Record precipitation in Fort McMurray (highest in >30 years and ~50% above the 10-year average) materially reduced mining productivity. Management estimated a 50,000–60,000 bpd adverse impact on Q2 production and said the event left value on the table.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record cash generation (AFFO)
Adjusted funds from operations of $5.3 billion in 2Q26 — nearly double year-ago levels and tied with the all-time quarterly record set in 2Q22. AFFO per share was $4.52, nearly 20% higher than the comparable 2022 quarter, delivered with WTI averaging ~$93/bbl (vs ~$108/bbl in 2Q22).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company said it is keeping full‑year upstream guidance unchanged despite an unusual Q2 weather event (precipitation ~50% above the 10‑year average) that cut Q2 production (761,000 b/d) by an estimated 50–60,000 b/d versus plan; Firebag was originally modeled as an 85,000 b/d Q2 impact in guidance but the actual turnaround impact was ~60,000 b/d (25,000 b/d better than plan), and July preliminary production is ~870,000 b/d. Operational guidance drivers cited: upgrader utilization 93% in Q2 (YTD 94%, a record), refinery throughput 471,000 b/d (Montreal 151k, Edmonton 161k; combined utilization 99%), network utilization 92% on 511k b/d capacity (YTD 95%, record), and product sales 655,000 b/d (jet a record 51,000 b/d). Financial and capital allocation guidance highlights include AFFO of $5.3 billion in Q2 ($4.52/sh), record downstream AFFO $2.3 billion, returning $1.8 billion to shareholders in Q2 ($1.1B buybacks + $706M dividends) and increasing buybacks to $500M/month ($1.5B/quarter); turnaround cost and efficiency targets were reiterated (historical turnaround spend >20% of capex ≈ $1.25B/yr, $250M/yr savings goal met early, $350M/yr on track for 2026 and a $400M/yr ambition set Mar 31), with examples of shorter/cheaper outages (Firebag 58→44 days and $150M→$118M, base plant coker 60→46 days and $225M→$203M) that underpin confidence in a stronger second half.Suncor Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 58.27B | 48.91B | 50.69B | 49.09B | 58.34B | 39.13B |
| Gross Profit | 25.47B | 21.24B | 19.85B | 19.54B | 24.83B | 15.28B |
| EBITDA | 20.32B | 16.18B | 16.40B | 18.33B | 22.28B | 12.63B |
| Net Income | 8.93B | 5.92B | 6.02B | 8.29B | 9.08B | 4.12B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 94.75B | 89.91B | 89.78B | 88.54B | 84.62B | 83.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.37B | 3.65B | 3.48B | 1.73B | 1.98B | 2.21B |
| Total Debt | 14.68B | 18.38B | 14.69B | 15.80B | 16.03B | 18.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 46.59B | 44.79B | 45.27B | 45.26B | 45.25B | 47.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 48.16B | 45.12B | 44.51B | 43.28B | 39.37B | 36.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.33B | 6.92B | 9.48B | 6.52B | 10.56B | 7.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.80B | 12.78B | 15.96B | 12.34B | 15.68B | 11.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.60B | -6.02B | -6.47B | -6.51B | -4.79B | -3.98B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.18B | -6.47B | -7.88B | -5.99B | -11.23B | -7.46B |
Suncor Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
92.85
Price Trends
85.11
Negative
87.06
Negative
76.26
Positive
Market Momentum
1.11
Positive
41.08
Neutral
6.79
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.96, above the 50-day MA of 85.11, and above the 200-day MA of 76.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:SU.
Suncor Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | C$132.00B | 13.62 | 22.74% | 3.70% | 17.57% | 42.82% | |
77 Outperform | C$72.63B | 10.91 | 21.02% | 1.99% | 4.36% | 148.74% | |
77 Outperform | C$84.25B | 19.49 | 19.13% | 1.75% | 6.90% | -6.08% | |
76 Outperform | C$98.98B | 11.16 | 14.01% | 2.55% | 13.75% | 65.44% | |
70 Outperform | C$38.54B | 23.33 | 10.54% | 3.95% | -0.28% | -4.26% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | C$88.19B | 26.48 | 12.53% | 3.47% | 5.52% | -18.22% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:SU
Suncor Energy
83.83
32.18
62.32%
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Suncor Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Suncor reshapes executive ranks as CEO Rich Kruger plans 2027 transition
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Suncor Energy has announced a planned leadership transition that will see current President and CEO Rich Kruger move to the role of Executive Vice Chair in April 2027, while Peter Zebedee, now Executive Vice President Upstream, will become Preside...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.