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Texas Pacific Land
(NYSE:TPL)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$424.00
▲(1.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
TPL scores well primarily due to outstanding financial performance (high margins, strong free cash flow, and near debt-free balance sheet) and a positive earnings outlook driven by record results and progress on power/data center and water initiatives. The overall score is held back by weak current technical momentum and a demanding valuation (high P/E with a low dividend yield).
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Extremely low leverage and a growing equity base give TPL durable financial flexibility to fund strategic land and infrastructure investments, weather commodity downturns, and avoid forced capital actions. High ROE (mid-30%+) shows efficient capital use despite cyclicality risks.
Negative Factors
Commodity-driven revenue volatility
Heavy reliance on oil & gas royalties and produced-water tied to operator activity makes revenue and FCF sensitive to commodity prices and drill cycles. That structural volatility can compress margins and delay investments, complicating multi-year planning despite strong underlying cash generation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Extremely low leverage and a growing equity base give TPL durable financial flexibility to fund strategic land and infrastructure investments, weather commodity downturns, and avoid forced capital actions. High ROE (mid-30%+) shows efficient capital use despite cyclicality risks.
Read all positive factors
Texas Pacific Land Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Measures the profit generated by each segment from core operations before financing and taxes, highlighting efficiency and cost structure across royalty collection, land transactions, and services. Useful for assessing which parts of the business drive operational strength and which are burdened by higher costs.
Measures the profit generated by each segment from core operations before financing and taxes, highlighting efficiency and cost structure across royalty collection, land transactions, and services. Useful for assessing which parts of the business drive operational strength and which are burdened by higher costs.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTexas Pacific Land (TPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.73B
Dividend Yield0.53%
Average Volume (3M)368.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)46.0
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth20.82%
EPS Growth17.23%
CountryUS
Employees114
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.85
Shares Outstanding68,974,686
10 Day Avg. Volume248,889
30 Day Avg. Volume368,806
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio6.83
Price to Book (P/B)13.57
Price to Sales (P/S)24.81
P/FCF Ratio40.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$639.00Price Target Upside52.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)8.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$997.00M
Texas Pacific Land Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services. Its Land and Resource Management division oversees a vast land portfolio, spanning nearly 880,000 acres. This segment al...
How the Company Makes Money
TPL generates revenue primarily from (1) oil and gas royalties earned on production from wells drilled on acreage where it owns mineral interests; operators develop the properties and sell the hydrocarbons, and TPL receives a contractual royalty (...
Texas Pacific Land Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record financial metrics (revenue, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow) and strong operational growth in royalty production and produced-water volumes, along with strategic milestones: a completed desalination facility, a significant land acquisition for data center/power expansion, and a large pipeline of potential data center/power projects (~25 GW). Challenges include a sequential decline in water sales volumes due to localized gas-price-driven activity shifts, a one-quarter dip in oil mix, paused buybacks while capital is redeployed to growth initiatives, and typical execution/timing uncertainty for large infrastructure and commercial agreements. On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum combined with tangible project progress outweigh the transitory and execution-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Financial Results
Consolidated revenue of ~$246 million (quarterly all-time high), up 4% sequentially and 31% year-over-year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $216 million, up 19% sequentially and 30% year-over-year with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 88%. Free cash flow of $156 million, up 14% sequentially and 20% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Sequential Decline in Water Sales Volumes
Water sales volumes of 663,000 barrels (reported per call) representing a 19% sequential decline despite a 38% year-over-year increase. Management attributed the sequential decline to weak in-basin natural gas prices causing operators to shift some development away from the Delaware Basin; expects improvement as new gas pipeline capacity enters service.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results
Consolidated revenue of ~$246 million (quarterly all-time high), up 4% sequentially and 31% year-over-year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $216 million, up 19% sequentially and 30% year-over-year with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 88%. Free cash flow of $156 million, up 14% sequentially and 20% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed fiscal‑year capital expenditure guidance of $65–75 million (year‑to‑date CapEx $29 million) and said planned second‑half spending on colocation cooling and waste‑heat capture is embedded in that range; management is in advanced talks on roughly 25 GW of power/compute projects with an expectation of one or more near‑term definitive agreements, and has been prioritizing cash deployment over buybacks. Key Q2 metrics cited: consolidated revenue ≈ $246 million (+4% sequential, +31% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $216 million (+19% seq, +30% YoY) with an 88% margin, free cash flow $156 million (+14% seq, +20% YoY), oil & gas royalty production ~39,700 BOE/d (+7% seq, +20% YoY), produced‑water royalty volumes 4.9 million barrels (+6% seq, +15% YoY) with water sales 663,000 barrels (‑19% seq, +38% YoY), SLEM revenues $24 million (+37% seq), a Phase 2b desalination facility commissioning toward 10,000 bbl/day capacity, a >10,000‑acre acquisition for ≈ $100 million, produced‑water royalty pricing at the high end (~>$0.08/ bbl) with expectations pore‑space royalties will rise over time, and a well inventory of 5.6 net permitted, 9.5 net DUCs and 3.4 net completed‑but‑not‑producing (18.4 net line‑of‑sight wells); management also expects oil cut to trend back toward 40%+.Texas Pacific Land Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
92
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 897.54M | 798.19M | 705.82M | 631.60M | 667.42M | 450.96M |
| Gross Profit | 900.38M | 682.13M | 634.54M | 583.27M | 634.53M | 421.47M |
| EBITDA | 745.90M | 655.46M | 603.98M | 500.81M | 577.68M | 378.65M |
| Net Income | 541.42M | 481.38M | 453.96M | 405.64M | 446.36M | 269.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.86B | 1.62B | 1.25B | 1.16B | 877.43M | 764.06M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 248.61M | 144.81M | 369.83M | 725.17M | 510.83M | 428.24M |
| Total Debt | 15.51M | 32.35M | 453.00K | 1.17M | 1.96M | 1.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 187.08M | 164.37M | 115.56M | 113.20M | 104.54M | 112.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.67B | 1.46B | 1.13B | 1.04B | 772.89M | 651.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 526.70M | 486.38M | 460.98M | 403.26M | 427.94M | 249.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 603.15M | 545.91M | 490.67M | 418.29M | 447.15M | 265.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -718.76M | -595.85M | -471.75M | -60.31M | -21.40M | -15.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -179.71M | -176.04M | -378.09M | -144.61M | -336.81M | -104.95M |
Texas Pacific Land Technical Analysis
Negative
419.44
Price Trends
388.68
Negative
405.74
Negative
387.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-13.39
Positive
42.85
Neutral
29.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 419.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 383.68, above the 50-day MA of 388.68, and above the 200-day MA of 387.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -13.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TPL.
Texas Pacific Land Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $11.49B | 10.37 | 13.86% | ― | 20.84% | 141.73% | |
73 Outperform | $18.01B | 14.34 | 11.32% | 2.90% | 12.81% | -5.91% | |
72 Outperform | $24.73B | 45.96 | 35.77% | 0.46% | 20.82% | 17.23% | |
72 Outperform | $50.43B | 11.25 | 14.90% | 2.31% | 18.28% | -5.35% | |
70 Outperform | $17.36B | 18.09 | 8.27% | 1.90% | 6.17% | 57.64% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
360.79
61.94
20.72%
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47.57
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63.85
26.29
69.98%
AR
Antero Resources
36.40
6.53
21.86%
PR
Permian Resources
22.18
9.62
76.59%
Texas Pacific Land Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Texas Pacific Land Reports Record Q2 Results, Expands Infrastructure
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Texas Pacific Land posted an updated investor presentation and CEO video as it reported record second-quarter 2026 consolidated net income and free cash flow, driven by higher oil and gas royalty production, elevated commodity p...
Business Operations and Strategy
Texas Pacific Land Partners with Chevron on Data Center Project
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
On June 23, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced it has agreed to provide land and brackish water resources to Chevron U.S.A. for Project Kilby, a large-scale power generation facility supporting a customer data center in Reeves County, ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Texas Pacific Land Highlights Water and Surface Revenue Strategy
Positive
May 18, 2026
Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced it will use a detailed investor presentation at its Investor Day in Midland, Texas, on May 18, 2026, highlighting its water-focused operations and strategic use of its surface estate. The event agenda inclu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Texas Pacific Land Announces Board Agreement and Strong Quarter
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 5 and May 6, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation strengthened its governance and investor outreach while reporting robust first-quarter 2026 results. The company entered a board representative agreement with Horizon Kinetics, its largest s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.