Antero Resources AI Stock Analysis
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Antero Resources (AR) AI Stock Analysis
Antero Resources
(NYSE:AR)
The score is driven primarily by improved TTM fundamentals (strong margins and sizable free cash flow with better leverage) and a very constructive earnings call with quantified margin/FCF catalysts. Technicals support the uptrend but overbought signals raise near-term pullback risk. Valuation looks relatively inexpensive on P/E, though no dividend yield data is available to bolster the valuation component.
Antero Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue By TypeShows how different types of products or services contribute to overall revenue, providing insight into diversification and dependency on specific offerings.
Natural gas and NGLs are clearly the profit engine here: after earlier weakness they’ve regained momentum and now dominate revenue, driven by stronger commodity realizations. Income from derivatives is highly volatile and increasingly moves the headline—recent mark‑to‑market gains can boost reported revenue without guaranteed recurring cash flow. A one‑off jump in “Other” looks like a non‑operating item, while marketing revenues have trended down then recently ticked up, signaling variable marketing volumes/margins. Watch realized prices and the hedging mix, not just top‑line swings.
The FlyAntero Resources (AR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $11.90B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 4.02M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.7
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.01
- Revenue Growth
- 21.51%
- EPS Growth
- 152.63%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 632
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Antero Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Antero Resources Corporation functions as an independent energy enterprise, primarily engaged in identifying, acquiring, developing, and extracting natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil deposits throughout the United States. As of th...
How the Company Makes Money
Antero Resources makes money primarily by producing and selling natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil/condensate from its operated wells in the Appalachian Basin. Revenue is recognized when these commodities are delivered to customer...
Antero Resources Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, with record production, a 27% increase in unhedged EBITDAX margin, 16% lower cash costs, 139% free cash flow per share growth, robust NGL pricing, and multiple identified margin enhancement opportunities. The main challenges were weak regional natural gas prices, fourth-quarter curtailments, lower near-term gas realizations, and elevated freight rates, but management described these issues as manageable through flexibility, hedging, transportation optimization, and selective production timing.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Antero guided to Q4 production of 4.3 Bcf with 15 Bcf to 20 Bcf curtailments and cash production expense of $2.10-$2.20, with the base business kind of flat at that $2.05 level currently and expense expected to trend down in 2027; 2027 production growth is expected to be high single-digit growth based on the average of 26, with a low 4.5, kind of a risk curtailment kind of number, and above the 4.5 without unrisking and no curtailments, supported by a consistent program of three rigs and two completion crews and a similar capital plan next year as this year. The company expects $140 million of its $300 million margin enhancement target by mid-2027, approximately 1 Bcf per day of firm transportation optimization agreements generating an annualized free cash flow increase of $50 million, the VPP transaction to add $30 million of annualized free cash flow in the third quarter of 2027, $300 million by year-end 2028, and total margin improvement could double the $300 million target by early next decade; it also expects NGL strength to continue in 2027, with above $3 billion of EBITDA with today's prices, Q4 free cash flow to essentially double Q3, and 45 million barrels of C3+ annually, such that a $20 incremental increase from this past quarter would equal $900 million of incremental free cash flow, or $225 million a quarter.
Antero Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong rebound in TTM profitability and scale (revenue ~ $6.0B, net margin ~22.7%, EBITDA margin ~46%) with solid cash generation (TTM OCF ~$2.24B, FCF ~$1.28B). Offsets are clear cyclicality/earnings volatility across recent years, softer cash conversion (FCF to net income ~0.57), and a still-material absolute debt load (~$4.7B) despite improved leverage (D/E ~0.54).
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
70PositiveCash Flow
74Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.05B | 5.01B | 4.12B | 4.28B | 8.30B | 5.79B |
| Gross Profit | 1.81B | 1.11B | 327.33M | 612.47M | 4.59B | 2.26B |
| EBITDA | 2.80B | 1.73B | 859.55M | 1.23B | 3.29B | 699.51M |
| Net Income | 1.37B | 634.42M | 57.23M | 198.40M | 1.87B | -186.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.58B | 13.25B | 13.01B | 13.52B | 14.12B | 13.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total Debt | 4.65B | 3.53B | 4.03B | 4.51B | 4.63B | 5.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.94B | 5.53B | 5.79B | 6.38B | 7.10B | 7.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.64B | 7.55B | 7.02B | 6.90B | 6.75B | 5.76B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.28B | 1.24B | 747.36M | 827.20M | 2.89B | 1.55B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.24B | 1.63B | 849.29M | 994.72M | 3.05B | 1.66B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.53B | -1.08B | -714.15M | -1.14B | -943.61M | -710.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.29B | -343.12M | -135.13M | 146.05M | -2.11B | -949.33M |
Antero Resources Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.23, above the 50-day MA of 37.42, and above the 200-day MA of 37.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AR.
Antero Resources Risk Analysis
Antero Resources disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Antero Resources reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
- Finance & Corporate23
- Legal & Regulatory12
- Production17
- Ability to Sell4
- Macro & Political5
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksAntero Resources Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
EQT85Outperform- AR76Outperform
RRC74Outperform
CNX73Outperform
GPOR73Outperform
CRK56Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQT | 85Outperform | $33.04B | 11.84 | 11.21% | 1.26% | 18.24% | 43.85% |
| AR | 76Outperform | $11.90B | 8.71 | 16.88% | ― | 21.51% | 152.63% |
| RRC | 74Outperform | $12.11B | 13.71 | 19.27% | 0.75% | 17.76% | 58.05% |
| CNX | 73Outperform | $5.22B | 5.61 | 19.58% | ― | 7.88% | 196.46% |
| GPOR | 73Outperform | $2.87B | 6.29 | 26.19% | ― | 16.53% | ― |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| CRK | 56Neutral | $4.46B | 10.40 | 15.84% | ― | 3.84% | 526.70% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR | Antero Resources Corp | 38.74 | 5.10 | 15.16% | |
| CRK | Comstock Resources | 15.18 | -9.41 | -38.27% | |
| CNX | Cnx Resources | 36.56 | 0.44 | 1.22% | |
| EQT | EQT Corp | 52.81 | -5.53 | -9.48% | |
| RRC | Range Resources | 51.83 | 14.05 | 37.20% | |
| GPOR | Gulfport Energy Corp | 164.62 | -45.62 | -21.70% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026