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Rocket Lab USA
(NASDAQ:RKLB)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(12.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
The score is held back primarily by ongoing losses and significant cash burn despite improving gross margins and a strengthened balance sheet. Technicals also weigh on the rating due to a clear downtrend versus major moving averages. Offsetting these, earnings-call commentary and recent corporate actions point to strong bookings/backlog, solid liquidity, and strategic progress (including Iridium financing steps), which support a mid-range overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong growth and contracted demand
Rapid revenue growth alongside a substantial backlog gives Rocket Lab meaningful forward demand visibility across Launch and Space Systems. More than $1 billion of new contracts in Q2 and afterward supports continued scaling and can improve operating leverage as production and delivery capacity expand.
Negative Factors
Substantial cash burn
Rocket Lab continues to consume substantial cash, limiting internally funded investment and increasing reliance on its liquidity position or external financing. Persistent negative operating and free cash flow could constrain capital allocation and remains a meaningful obstacle to achieving durable financial self-sufficiency.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong growth and contracted demand
Rapid revenue growth alongside a substantial backlog gives Rocket Lab meaningful forward demand visibility across Launch and Space Systems. More than $1 billion of new contracts in Q2 and afterward supports continued scaling and can improve operating leverage as production and delivery capacity expand.
Read all positive factors
Rocket Lab USA Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Shows how revenue is generated from different products or services, highlighting the company's diversification and potential areas of growth.
Shows how revenue is generated from different products or services, highlighting the company's diversification and potential areas of growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRocket Lab USA (RKLB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$44.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.74
Revenue Growth52.53%
EPS Growth38.89%
CountryUS
Employees2,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.27
Shares Outstanding598,459,700
10 Day Avg. Volume21,866,572
30 Day Avg. Volume18,698,781
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio71.65
Price to Book (P/B)21.50
Price to Sales (P/S)61.51
P/FCF Ratio-115.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue80.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit215.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-506.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$110.07Price Target Upside64.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$959.22M
Rocket Lab USA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rocket Lab USA, Inc., a space company, provides launch services and space systems solutions for the space and defense industries. The company provides launch services, spacecraft engineering and design services, spacecraft components, spacecraft m...
How the Company Makes Money
Rocket Lab makes money primarily by selling space access and space hardware/services to customers across government and commercial markets.
1) Launch Services revenue
- Mission contracts: Rocket Lab earns revenue by contracting with customers to ...
Rocket Lab USA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed strong commercial momentum and operational execution: record revenue, sizable bookings and backlog, margin outperformance in Q2, robust liquidity and meaningful progress on Neutron development and strategic M&A (Mynaric, Motiv, pending Iridium). Offsetting risks include elevated cash burn and negative free cash flow driven by Neutron tail production and R&D, a sequential decline in Launch Services revenue due to accounting mix, margin pressure from recent acquisitions and schedule risk for Neutron's first flight. On balance, the positive commercial wins, backlog, margin beats and cash position outweigh the near-term cash and schedule pressures.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Growth
Q2 revenue of $234.0M, a record quarter: +62% year-over-year and +16.8% sequentially; revenue was within prior guidance and represented broad contribution from both Launch and Space Systems segments.
Negative Updates
Launch Services Revenue Decline
Launch Services revenue was $44.6M in Q2, down 30% sequentially despite a similar number of launches; decline primarily due to a revenue-recognition mix shift (overtime accounting for HASTE vs point-in-time for Electron).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Growth
Q2 revenue of $234.0M, a record quarter: +62% year-over-year and +16.8% sequentially; revenue was within prior guidance and represented broad contribution from both Launch and Space Systems segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 the company guided revenue of $250–$265 million (midpoint ≈ +10% QoQ), GAAP gross margin of 29–31% and non‑GAAP gross margin of 35–37%, GAAP operating expenses of $143–$149 million (non‑GAAP $121–$127M), net interest income of ~$21 million, an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17–$23 million, basic weighted‑average shares of ~641 million, and continued elevated negative non‑GAAP free cash flow (excluding financing). Management also said ~45.5% of the current ~$2.36 billion backlog is expected to convert to revenue within 12 months, capex will remain elevated as Neutron development continues (Q2 capex was $26M), and liquidity was roughly $2.4 billion after $1.08 billion raised via the ATM.Rocket Lab USA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 769.15M | 601.80M | 436.21M | 244.59M | 211.00M | 62.24M |
| Gross Profit | 286.62M | 207.18M | 116.15M | 51.41M | 18.99M | -1.89M |
| EBITDA | -122.15M | -155.47M | -151.80M | -144.93M | -95.20M | -107.86M |
| Net Income | -165.46M | -198.21M | -190.18M | -182.57M | -135.94M | -117.32M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.19B | 2.32B | 1.18B | 941.21M | 989.12M | 980.85M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.30B | 1.02B | 418.99M | 244.77M | 471.79M | 690.96M |
| Total Debt | 133.69M | 253.96M | 468.42M | 176.69M | 152.78M | 128.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 695.22M | 602.62M | 801.89M | 386.67M | 315.92M | 282.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49B | 1.72B | 382.45M | 554.54M | 673.21M | 698.45M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -371.14M | -321.81M | -115.98M | -153.57M | -148.95M | -97.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -222.46M | -165.52M | -48.89M | -98.87M | -106.54M | -71.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -395.98M | -347.40M | -98.33M | 12.02M | -346.08M | -92.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.19B | 1.07B | 256.68M | 7.37M | 2.04M | 799.94M |
Rocket Lab USA Technical Analysis
Positive
66.91
Price Trends
69.76
Positive
87.01
Negative
81.41
Negative
Market Momentum
0.74
Negative
58.41
Neutral
57.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RKLB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 66.91 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.80, below the 50-day MA of 69.76, and below the 200-day MA of 81.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RKLB.
Rocket Lab USA Risk Analysis
Rocket Lab USA disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rocket Lab USA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rocket Lab USA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $8.09B | 250.55 | 1.14% | ― | 25.50% | 86.96% | |
55 Neutral | $2.16T | -93.51 | -8.32% | ― | ― | ― | |
54 Neutral | $44.24B | -266.96 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
54 Neutral | $3.90B | -9.76 | -32.55% | 7.52% | 179.17% | -13.42% | |
53 Neutral | $2.72B | -7.45 | -20.75% | ― | 63.10% | 55.06% | |
48 Neutral | $3.37B | -15.66 | 29.79% | ― | 116.89% | 64.21% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
73.92
15.42
26.36%
KTOS
Kratos Defense
43.07
-57.18
-57.04%
RDW
Redwire
10.88
-0.34
-3.03%
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
14.71
2.73
22.79%
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
23.32
-5.77
-19.83%
SPCX
SpaceX
158.96
-1.99
-1.24%
Rocket Lab USA Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Rocket Lab Finalizes Financing for Iridium Acquisition Plan
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Rocket Lab said it had completed financing for its pending acquisition of Iridium Communications, expected to close in mid-2027 subject to regulatory approvals. The company finished a $1.944 billion at-the-market equity prog...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rocket Lab Launches New ATM to Support Iridium Deal
Neutral
Aug 13, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Rocket Lab Corporation announced it had replaced its May 20, 2026 equity distribution agreement with a new at-the-market equity program with Deutsche Bank Securities and Wells Fargo Securities, allowing sales of up to $1.94 bil...
Financial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rocket Lab Advances Iridium Acquisition with Regulatory Filings
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
On June 28, 2026, Rocket Lab USA agreed to acquire satellite operator Iridium Communications via a two-step merger structure that will ultimately make Iridium an indirect wholly owned subsidiary. Under the Agreement and Plan of Merger, an initial ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.