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Ducommun
(NYSE:DCO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$177.00
▼(-4.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance driven by recent losses and negative operating/free cash flow in 2025 and TTM. Offsetting this, technicals are strong with clear uptrend momentum, and the latest earnings call was broadly constructive with improving margins, strong demand indicators (bookings/backlog/RPO), and reiterated guidance, though H2 destocking and execution risks remain.
Positive Factors
Backlog Visibility
Record remaining performance obligations and book-to-bill above one indicate demand is outpacing current shipments. This provides multi-quarter revenue visibility, supports capacity planning, and strengthens the foundation for sustained growth across aerospace and defense programs.
Negative Factors
Recent Losses and Cash Burn
The recent shift to negative earnings and operating cash flow weakens financial quality despite revenue growth. Persistent losses or cash burn could constrain self-funded investment, increase reliance on financing, and reduce flexibility if operating improvements do not hold.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog Visibility
Record remaining performance obligations and book-to-bill above one indicate demand is outpacing current shipments. This provides multi-quarter revenue visibility, supports capacity planning, and strengthens the foundation for sustained growth across aerospace and defense programs.
Read all positive factors
Ducommun (DCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.55B
Dividend Yield1.36%
Average Volume (3M)212.40K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth8.57%
EPS Growth-162.23%
CountryUS
Employees2,130
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.81
Shares Outstanding15,099,779
10 Day Avg. Volume152,914
30 Day Avg. Volume212,398
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)2.15
Price to Sales (P/S)1.72
P/FCF Ratio-29.22
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda544.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$219.67Price Target Upside18.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)4.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$883.78M
Ducommun Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ducommun Incorporated, an established company founded in 1849 and based in Santa Ana, California, specializes in delivering advanced engineering and manufacturing solutions. Primarily, it caters to critical sectors within the United States, such a...
How the Company Makes Money
Ducommun makes money by manufacturing and delivering aerospace and defense components and assemblies under customer contracts and long-term supply arrangements, generating revenue when products are shipped/delivered (or as performance obligations ...
Ducommun Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, strong bookings and backlog growth, significant margin expansion, notable missile and commercial aerospace recoveries, meaningful cash generation and realized cost synergies. The company also flagged temporary and manageable headwinds — ongoing destocking effects, some subsegment softness (radar/space/naval/business jet), revenue pull-forward dynamics, and execution risks around supply chain, hiring, and realizing share of prime defense awards. Overall, the positive metrics, sizable backlog/RPO growth, margin trajectory and preparedness for defense program ramps outweigh the transitory and execution-related lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Consistent Growth
Revenue reached a new quarterly record of $225.0 million (management also cited $224 million in remarks), up 12% year-over-year. This was the 5th consecutive quarter above $200 million and the 20th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Destocking Headwinds and H2 Growth Moderation
Management expects destocking in commercial aerospace to remain a headwind through the end of 2026 (though improving), leading to more muted growth in the second half and guidance for low- to mid-single-digit revenue growth in Q3 and Q4 despite full-year mid-to-high single-digit guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Consistent Growth
Revenue reached a new quarterly record of $225.0 million (management also cited $224 million in remarks), up 12% year-over-year. This was the 5th consecutive quarter above $200 million and the 20th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of mid‑to‑high single‑digit growth, cautioned that some destocking headwinds may persist through year‑end, and said Q3 and Q4 should show low‑to‑mid single‑digit growth as H1 pull‑forward production unwinds; they also reaffirmed VISION 2027 targets including 18% adjusted EBITDA in 2027 (Q2 adjusted EBITDA was 17.1% or $38.4M, up $6.7M YoY). Q2 metrics cited to support the guidance included revenue of ~$224–225M (+12% YoY), gross profit $62.9M or 28% (+160 bps YoY), adjusted operating income $26.7M or 11.9%, GAAP net income $20.4M / GAAP EPS $1.31 (adjusted net income $18.4M / adjusted EPS $1.18), record remaining performance obligations of $1.16B (+$250M YoY) with a 1.4x quarterly book‑to‑bill (1.3x LTM), $310M bookings in Q2 and $1.1B booked over the past 12 months, missile revenues +68% in Q2 (29% LTM), commercial aerospace +16% Q2, facility consolidation run‑rate savings of ~$13M largely realized, available liquidity $410M, Q2 cash from operations $33.5M (YTD cash flow $44.8M) and YTD free cash flow $38.3M (127% conversion).Ducommun Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 863.21M | 824.84M | 786.55M | 756.99M | 712.54M | 645.41M |
| Gross Profit | 234.85M | 221.62M | 197.26M | 163.19M | 144.30M | 142.46M |
| EBITDA | 5.87M | -913.00K | 85.65M | 69.72M | 76.31M | 210.06M |
| Net Income | -24.81M | -37.35M | 31.50M | 15.93M | 28.79M | 135.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.22B | 1.19B | 1.13B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 978.74M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.80M | 45.29M | 37.14M | 42.86M | 46.25M | 76.32M |
| Total Debt | 335.87M | 345.83M | 272.14M | 295.59M | 282.84M | 320.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 534.12M | 524.12M | 443.57M | 484.82M | 495.55M | 504.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 690.44M | 662.11M | 682.53M | 636.09M | 525.96M | 474.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -24.47M | -48.64M | 20.05M | 11.54M | 12.99M | -17.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -11.80M | -33.41M | 34.18M | 31.07M | 32.68M | -565.00K |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.54M | -13.12M | -13.91M | -133.50M | -19.24M | 57.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.02M | 54.68M | -26.00M | 99.05M | -43.51M | -37.34M |
Ducommun Technical Analysis
Negative
185.36
Price Trends
174.72
Negative
174.10
Negative
151.78
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.92
Positive
36.70
Neutral
55.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 185.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 169.83, above the 50-day MA of 174.72, and above the 200-day MA of 151.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DCO.
Ducommun Risk Analysis
Ducommun disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ducommun reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ducommun Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.83B | 87.39 | 5.77% | ― | 29.76% | 51.88% | |
68 Neutral | $2.58B | 30.30 | 51.97% | 23.34% | 14.49% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $2.55B | -93.14 | -3.72% | 1.36% | 8.57% | -162.23% | |
59 Neutral | $130.09M | 32.60 | 10.02% | 0.61% | 18.78% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $4.67B | 123.80 | 9.42% | ― | 50.23% | 365.67% | |
52 Neutral | $62.80M | 16.19 | 14.04% | ― | 2.59% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
DCO
Ducommun
168.59
68.71
68.79%
ATRO
Astronics
61.82
21.93
54.99%
CVU
CPI Aerostructures
4.70
2.20
88.00%
SIF
SIFCO Industries
21.00
13.97
198.55%
LOAR
Loar Holdings Inc.
62.92
-17.60
-21.86%
KRMN
Karman Holdings Inc.
35.27
-46.72
-56.98%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.