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Karman Holdings Inc.
(NYSE:KRMN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(34.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality (negative TTM free cash flow) and very expensive valuation (P/E 218). These risks are partially offset by strong operational momentum and raised guidance from the latest earnings call, plus constructive near-term technicals that are somewhat tempered by near-overbought readings.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & backlog visibility
A record $1.3B backlog and ~$500M of Q2 bookings provide durable multi-quarter revenue visibility. That scale of booked business supports production planning, capacity utilization and predictable revenue conversion, underpinning raised guidance and multi-year organic growth targets.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow / cash conversion
TTM free cash flow of -$27.7M and volatile operating cash flow reflect working‑capital absorption and elevated investment needs. Persistently weak cash conversion can constrain sustainable deleveraging, limit internal funding for capex or M&A, and increase reliance on external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & backlog visibility
A record $1.3B backlog and ~$500M of Q2 bookings provide durable multi-quarter revenue visibility. That scale of booked business supports production planning, capacity utilization and predictable revenue conversion, underpinning raised guidance and multi-year organic growth targets.
Read all positive factors
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.98M
Price to Earnings (P/E)217.7
Beta (1Y)1.72
Revenue Growth50.23%
EPS Growth365.67%
CountryUS
Employees1,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding132,533,700
10 Day Avg. Volume5,408,681
30 Day Avg. Volume3,980,113
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio15.96
Price to Book (P/B)25.30
Price to Sales (P/S)20.53
P/FCF Ratio-228.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$82.38Price Target Upside73.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$737.86M
Karman Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Karman Holdings Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong, broad-based operational and financial momentum: record revenue, backlog and bookings; high organic growth (24.4% in the quarter) and raised full-year guidance with robust adjusted EBITDA expansion. Management is actively expanding capacity, integrating acquisitions, adding international presence, and addressing governance (PwC selection and material weakness remediation). Near-term risks include elevated leverage (~3.7x), working capital absorption (AR growth and $4M cash used in ops), margin normalization from contract mix and acquisition effects, pending contingent agreement conversions, and regulatory review for the Walker acquisition. On balance, the positives — substantial top-line and profit growth, record backlog/bookings, capacity scaling and raised guidance — materially outweigh the manageable execution and financing risks called out on the call.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Growth
Revenue of $182.0M in Q2, up 58% year-over-year and 20.4% sequentially; six-month revenue $333M, up 55% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
High Leverage
Net debt of $752M at quarter end with pro forma Q2 leverage ~3.7x adjusted EBITDA; management expects ~3.5x pro forma by year-end subject to acquisition approvals.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong Growth
Revenue of $182.0M in Q2, up 58% year-over-year and 20.4% sequentially; six-month revenue $333M, up 55% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Karman raised 2026 guidance to revenue of $730–$745 million and non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $215–$222.5 million (≈29.7% margin at the midpoint), reaffirmed ≥25% organic growth for 2026 (20–25% target multi‑year), and noted record backlog of $1.3 billion and nearly $500 million of Q2 bookings with ~95% visibility to the midpoint; they expect H2 revenue to step up with an approximate 47%/53% Q3/Q4 split, accelerating volume/cash in H2 and delivering $15–$20 million of free cash flow, model a statutory tax rate of 26.5% and CapEx of ~5% of revenue (~$37 million), reported net debt of $752 million and Q2 pro‑forma leverage of ~3.7x (targeting ~3.5x pro‑forma by year‑end), and highlighted financing improvements including a term‑loan repricing to SOFR+2.25% (≈$4 million annual interest savings) and an expanded $150 million revolver.Karman Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 589.55M | 471.50M | 345.25M | 280.70M | 226.31M |
| Gross Profit | 245.65M | 190.03M | 132.11M | 105.55M | 80.95M |
| EBITDA | 142.74M | 119.83M | 97.86M | 76.24M | 55.21M |
| Net Income | 37.18M | 17.37M | 12.70M | 4.36M | -14.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.44B | 1.14B | 773.96M | 710.83M | 682.59M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.74M | 33.96M | 11.53M | 5.45M | 6.63M |
| Total Debt | 875.26M | 587.31M | 447.87M | 409.33M | 403.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 759.98M | 577.96M | 528.37M | 505.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 421.10M | 382.69M | 196.00M | 182.46M | 177.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.67M | -42.45M | 11.39M | 3.55M | -27.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.86M | -22.12M | 26.65M | 20.33M | -5.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -328.80M | -238.27M | -46.24M | -16.21M | -21.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 347.24M | 282.82M | 25.67M | -5.29M | 16.73M |
Karman Holdings Inc. Risk Analysis
Karman Holdings Inc. disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Karman Holdings Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Karman Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $5.25B | 25.87 | 4.44% | ― | 11.44% | 291.35% | |
67 Neutral | $6.79B | 87.93 | 3.73% | 0.20% | 23.35% | 56.45% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $6.67B | -466.50 | -0.96% | ― | 8.95% | 78.82% | |
57 Neutral | $8.22B | 217.66 | 9.42% | ― | 50.23% | 365.67% | |
57 Neutral | $12.12B | 373.51 | 1.14% | ― | 25.50% | 86.96% | |
56 Neutral | $9.76B | -30.22 | -6.05% | ― | 140.89% | -448.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
KRMN
Karman Holdings Inc.
62.01
10.23
19.76%
AVAV
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192.81
-54.32
-21.98%
KTOS
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VSEC
VSE
241.82
77.44
47.11%
AMTM
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21.47
-3.66
-14.56%
Karman Holdings Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Karman Holdings Refinances Credit Agreement, Lowers Interest Costs
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. entered into a Fifth Amendment to its existing Credit Agreement with Citibank, N.A. and other lenders, under which it refinanced $763,961,000 of term loans to lower the interest rate by 50 basis points to SO...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Karman Holdings Prices Secondary Stock Offering Amid Growth
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. signed an underwriting agreement allowing selling stockholders to offer 14 million shares of common stock at $61 per share, with underwriters granted a 30-day option to buy up to an additional 2.1 million shar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.