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AeroVironment
(NASDAQ:AVAV)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$120.00
▼(-18.60% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
AVAV’s score is held back primarily by weak current profitability and a bearish technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting this, the latest earnings call was constructive with reaffirmed FY2027 guidance, strong bookings/backlog, and high revenue visibility. Valuation provides limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
Record funded backlog and 86% revenue visibility provide a durable base for future deliveries and reduce dependence on winning entirely new work each quarter. Strong bookings and contract capacity also support planning, production investment, and sustained revenue growth over the next several periods.
Negative Factors
Current Loss-Making Profile
Materially negative net and operating results show that strong revenue growth has not yet translated into durable GAAP profitability. Compressed gross margin further limits earnings conversion and indicates that cost or mix pressure could continue weighing on returns while the portfolio scales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
Record funded backlog and 86% revenue visibility provide a durable base for future deliveries and reduce dependence on winning entirely new work each quarter. Strong bookings and contract capacity also support planning, production investment, and sustained revenue growth over the next several periods.
Read all positive factors
AeroVironment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAeroVironment (AVAV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.02M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.16
Revenue Growth84.44%
EPS Growth-541.91%
CountryUS
Employees4,041
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.82
Shares Outstanding50,820,700
10 Day Avg. Volume1,539,882
30 Day Avg. Volume2,018,230
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.18
Price to Sales (P/S)4.84
P/FCF Ratio-58.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.06K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$211.83Price Target Upside43.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)3.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.21B
AeroVironment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AeroVironment Inc. develops, produces, delivers, and services a diverse array of robotic systems for governmental and commercial entities across the globe. The company's operations are segmented into Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Tactical Missi...
How the Company Makes Money
AeroVironment makes money primarily by selling defense-focused unmanned systems and related services, with revenue largely tied to government and allied defense procurement. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales of uncrewed aircraft syste...
AeroVironment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 09, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. AV delivered record first-quarter revenue and funded backlog, reported 84% year-over-year adjusted EPS growth, secured $683 million of bookings and reaffirmed its fiscal year 2027 revenue, EBITDA and EPS guidance. The company also highlighted major domestic and international wins across counter-UAS, precision strike, autonomous systems and space technologies, alongside substantial capacity investments. These positives outweighed declines in the Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment, lower service margins, negative free cash flow, near-term earnings cadence pressure and uncertainty around government budget timing.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Revenue and Strong Financial Performance
AV reported record first-quarter revenue of $480 million. The company said it met or exceeded expectations for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS while generating positive operating cash flow. Adjusted EPS reached $0.59, up from $0.32 in the prior-year quarter, an 84% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA was cited as nearly $46 million in the CEO's summary and $53 million, or 11% of revenue, in the CFO's detailed results.
Negative Updates
Space, Cyber and Directed Energy Revenue Decline
The Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment generated $134 million of first-quarter revenue, down 21% year over year. The decline reflected the loss of revenue from the SCAR contract termination in March and other discontinued government programs. Space and directed-energy operating-group sales declined 28% year over year, while Cyber and Mission Solutions revenue declined 16% year over year.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Revenue and Strong Financial Performance
AV reported record first-quarter revenue of $480 million. The company said it met or exceeded expectations for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS while generating positive operating cash flow. Adjusted EPS reached $0.59, up from $0.32 in the prior-year quarter, an 84% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EBITDA was cited as nearly $46 million in the CEO's summary and $53 million, or 11% of revenue, in the CFO's detailed results.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal year 2027, AV reaffirmed revenue guidance of between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion, representing 10% growth at the midpoint of our fiscal year '26 results; adjusted EBITDA guidance of between $305 million and $325 million; and non-GAAP adjusted EPS between $3.02 and $3.34. Revenue is expected to follow an approximate 45-55 revenue split between the first half and second half, adjusted EBITDA roughly 1/3 in the first half and 2/3 in the second half, and non-GAAP EPS a roughly 30-70 split between the first half and second half. The company continues to expect to invest between 7% and 9% of revenue in R&D and 12% to 14% of revenue in CapEx, with adjusted SG&A expenses projected at 14% to 16% of revenue, and is still targeting fiscal year '27 to be negative from a free cash flow perspective; revenue visibility to the midpoint of full year guidance is 86%.AeroVironment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.00B | 1.98B | 820.63M | 716.72M | 540.54M | 445.73M |
| Gross Profit | 530.12M | 500.64M | 322.94M | 283.93M | 173.51M | 141.24M |
| EBITDA | -7.25M | -34.97M | 104.39M | 109.45M | 111.94M | 51.88M |
| Net Income | -290.09M | -265.12M | 43.62M | 59.67M | -176.21M | -4.19M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.73B | 5.72B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 824.58M | 914.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 580.23M | 632.30M | 40.86M | 73.30M | 132.86M | 101.95M |
| Total Debt | 850.82M | 834.79M | 64.29M | 59.68M | 162.82M | 216.57M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.33B | 1.32B | 234.06M | 193.12M | 273.61M | 305.99M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.40B | 4.40B | 886.51M | 822.75M | 550.97M | 607.97M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.19M | -164.62M | -24.13M | -9.19M | -3.47M | -31.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 58.82M | -78.40M | -1.32M | 15.29M | 11.40M | -9.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -464.26M | -1.23B | -28.49M | -51.71M | -7.00M | -52.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.35M | 1.65B | -2.86M | -22.85M | 50.83M | -16.61M |
AeroVironment Technical Analysis
Negative
147.42
Price Trends
147.30
Negative
155.39
Negative
192.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-9.12
Positive
26.41
Positive
9.36
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVAV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 147.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.86, above the 50-day MA of 147.30, and below the 200-day MA of 192.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -9.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.41 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.36 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVAV.
AeroVironment Risk Analysis
AeroVironment disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AeroVironment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AeroVironment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $75.86B | 16.98 | 25.70% | 1.77% | 6.51% | 14.02% | |
71 Outperform | $46.32B | 24.85 | 9.41% | 2.00% | 7.29% | 10.75% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $5.98B | -20.19 | -6.64% | ― | 84.44% | -541.91% | |
54 Neutral | $7.31B | 225.36 | 1.14% | ― | 25.50% | 86.96% | |
45 Neutral | $699.43M | -5.33 | -35.02% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
AVAV
AeroVironment
117.70
-246.58
-67.69%
LHX
L3Harris Technologies
254.23
-34.26
-11.88%
KTOS
Kratos Defense
38.27
-51.05
-57.15%
NOC
Northrop Grumman
552.35
-43.67
-7.33%
RCAT
Red Cat Holdings
4.37
-5.77
-56.90%
AVEX
AEVEX Corp. Class A
10.96
-15.97
-59.30%
AeroVironment Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AeroVironment Shareholders Back Board, Auditor, Executive Pay
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
At AeroVironment’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on September 24, 2026, shareholders elected five board nominees — Edward R. Muller, William J. Lynn III, Philip S. Davidson, Mary Beth Long and Michael D. Ruppert — to o...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AeroVironment Posts Record Q1 Revenue Amid Defense Demand
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
For the fiscal first quarter ended August 1, 2026, AeroVironment reported record revenue of $480.5 million, up 6% year over year, driven by higher product and service sales across its Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AeroVironment announces board transition and succession plans
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 23, 2026, AeroVironment director Stephen F. Page notified the board that he will retire and not seek re-election when his current term ends at the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, anticipated for September 24, 2026. He ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.