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Intuitive Machines (LUNR) AI Stock Analysis
Intuitive Machines
(NASDAQ:LUNR)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (negative equity, rising debt, sizable losses, and persistent cash burn). Technicals also remain bearish with the stock below key moving averages and negative MACD. These are partly offset by a more favorable earnings-call outlook—reaffirmed revenue guidance, record backlog/bookings, and improving gross profit/adjusted EBITDA trajectory—but near-term cash usage and execution/timing risks keep the overall score below average.
Intuitive Machines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by SegmentBreaks down revenue across the company's business lines — for Intuitive Machines that typically means government/NASA contracts, commercial mission services, spacecraft hardware, and engineering/software services — showing which parts drive sales and margins. For investors, segment detail reveals how much revenue is milestone-driven and lumpy versus potentially recurring, highlights single-customer or program concentration, and signals sensitivity to launch schedules, technical delays, or contract timing. Tracking shifts between segments helps assess growth sustainability, margin trends, and the company's ability to diversify risk beyond one-off missions.
Fixed‑price work has become the dominant, lumpy revenue driver—an outsized Q1 2026 uptick likely reflecting backlog conversion and the Lantaris/Kinetics M&A—while cost‑reimbursable revenue has slid from its 2024 peak and time‑and‑materials remains a small, steady tail. That mix underpins management’s aggressive 2026 revenue target but raises execution and margin risk: growth looks acquisition- and backlog‑driven, not organic, so timing, integration costs and fixed‑price delivery will determine whether revenue translates into the promised margin and positive EBITDA.
The FlyIntuitive Machines (LUNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $2.17B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 8.32M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -11.4
- Beta (1Y)
- 3.29
- Revenue Growth
- 116.89%
- EPS Growth
- 64.21%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 525
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
Intuitive Machines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intuitive Machines, Inc. specializes in the development and provision of aerospace products and services. The company's core mission is to facilitate ongoing robotic and human missions aimed at exploring the Moon, Mars, and other distant celestial bo...
How the Company Makes Money
Intuitive Machines primarily generates revenue through contracted services and mission delivery arrangements, with NASA historically being the most significant customer. A major revenue stream comes from lunar mission contracts under NASA’s CLPS fram...
Intuitive Machines Earnings Call Summary
The call communicated strong commercial momentum: record bookings, a materially larger and diversified backlog (~$1.8B), >4x revenue growth year-over-year and meaningful gross profit and adjusted EBITDA improvement. The company reinforced full-year revenue guidance ($900M–$1B) and expectations for positive adjusted EBITDA, while describing strategic acquisitions and investments that expand TAM and capabilities. Near-term challenges include continued negative adjusted EBITDA this quarter, operating cash use and an IM-4 EAC adjustment, plus timing/definitization risk that could shift revenue between years. On balance the call portrayed substantial progress toward scaled, diversified operations and improving profitability despite near-term cash and cost pressures.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1.0 billion and reiterated an expectation for positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, anchored by a record $1.8 billion backlog (split ~37% civil / 49% commercial / 14% national security) and $1.7 billion of bookings year‑to‑date (including $1.2 billion in Q2 and ATPs expected to add ~$300 million in H2); they expect roughly 25%–30% of Q2 backlog to convert to 2026 revenue, 35%–40% in 2027 and the remainder thereafter. Quarterly metrics included $206 million revenue, $36 million gross profit (vs. -$12M prior year), adjusted EBITDA of -$14 million (improved from -$25M), an operating loss of $47 million, SG&A of $60 million (incl. ~$11M share‑based comp and ~$8M acquisition costs), R&D of $8 million, operating cash used of $60 million and $84 million total cash deployment (capex $24M); the company exited the quarter with $367 million cash and has raised $291 million gross to date (VWAP $26.81).
Intuitive Machines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong TTM revenue acceleration (~$490M) and improved gross margin (~27%) are positives, but they are outweighed by deeply negative operating profitability (EBIT margin ~-34%), persistent net losses (net margin ~-27%), ongoing cash burn (TTM FCF ~-$191M), and a structurally weak balance sheet with negative equity (TTM ~-$284M) alongside materially higher debt (~$430M).
Income Statement
34NegativeBalance Sheet
18Very NegativeCash Flow
22Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 490.12M | 210.06M | 228.00M | 79.52M | 85.95M | 72.55M |
| Gross Profit | 133.63M | 32.81M | 37.63M | -20.95M | 10.43M | -27.76M |
| EBITDA | -137.37M | -95.11M | -50.49M | 17.26M | -4.52M | -34.58M |
| Net Income | -130.87M | -83.29M | -283.41M | 62.80M | -6.41M | -35.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 757.15M | 355.40M | 85.93M | 67.00M | 43.45M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 367.35M | 582.61M | 207.61M | 4.56M | 25.76M | 29.29M |
| Total Debt | 429.80M | 372.16M | 37.38M | 43.48M | 25.76M | 14.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.17B | 553.45M | 351.48M | 137.50M | 124.62M | 95.29M |
| Stockholders Equity | -283.70M | -748.35M | -1.00B | -233.23M | -57.62M | -51.84M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -190.51M | -56.02M | -67.70M | -75.19M | -15.62M | -19.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -129.04M | -14.32M | -57.59M | -45.28M | 784.00K | -16.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -523.41M | -56.58M | -10.11M | -29.91M | -16.41M | -3.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 684.53M | 446.59M | 272.79M | 53.92M | 12.10M | 25.11M |
Intuitive Machines Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.91, below the 50-day MA of 13.86, and below the 200-day MA of 19.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUNR.
Intuitive Machines Risk Analysis
Intuitive Machines disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intuitive Machines reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskIntuitive Machines Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
RKLB60Neutral
FLY55Neutral
SPCX50Neutral
VOYG49Neutral- LUNR46Neutral
RDW45.9Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| RKLB | 60Neutral | $32.75B | -197.65 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% |
| FLY | 55Neutral | $3.00B | -7.50 | -32.55% | ― | 179.17% | -13.42% |
| SPCX | 50Neutral | $1.83T | -136.08 | -2.85% | ― | ― | ― |
| VOYG | 49Neutral | $1.64B | -11.29 | -33.05% | ― | 10.63% | -28.03% |
| LUNR | 46Neutral | $2.44B | -11.36 | 29.79% | ― | 116.89% | 64.21% |
| RDW | 46Neutral | $2.10B | -5.75 | -20.75% | ― | 63.10% | 55.06% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines, Inc. | 10.67 | -0.91 | -7.86% | |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab Usa, Inc. | 54.73 | -6.61 | -10.78% | |
| RDW | Redwire Corporation | 8.39 | 1.02 | 13.84% | |
| VOYG | Voyager Technologies, Inc. Class A | 26.43 | -2.23 | -7.78% | |
| FLY | Firefly Aerospace, Inc. | 17.93 | -5.85 | -24.58% | |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Technologies Corp. | 134.72 | -26.23 | -16.30% |
Intuitive Machines Corporate Events
Intuitive Machines Adds Veteran Space Leader to Board
PositiveOn October 21, 2026, director Michael Blitzer resigned from Intuitive Machines’ Board of Directors and all committee roles, including chair of the Compensation Committee, with the company emphasizing that his departure did not stem from any dis...
Intuitive Machines Expands Space Communications with Key Acquisitions
PositiveOn August 3, 2026, Intuitive Machines completed its previously announced acquisition of Goonhilly Earth Station Limited in the U.K. and COMSAT LLC in the U.S., securing world-class deep space communications providers with major ground station assets....
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 22, 2026