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Intuitive Machines
(NASDAQ:LUNR)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▼(-12.97% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial quality (negative equity, ongoing losses, and persistent cash burn) despite strong revenue growth and improving gross profitability. The earnings call adds support through reaffirmed 2026 guidance and record backlog/bookings, but near-term cash usage and execution risk remain key concerns. Technically, indicators suggest a short-term rebound within a still-weak broader trend, and valuation remains unattractive due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong growth and record contracted demand
Rapid revenue expansion alongside a record backlog and bookings base indicates growing customer adoption across lunar, satellite, and space systems work. Contracted demand provides a foundation for future revenue conversion and supports operating scale over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Structurally strained balance sheet
Negative equity combined with rising debt limits financial flexibility and increases dependence on external capital or successful operating improvement. This structure can constrain investment choices and heighten refinancing and funding risk while the company scales its programs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong growth and record contracted demand
Rapid revenue expansion alongside a record backlog and bookings base indicates growing customer adoption across lunar, satellite, and space systems work. Contracted demand provides a foundation for future revenue conversion and supports operating scale over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Intuitive Machines Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across the company's business lines — for Intuitive Machines that typically means government/NASA contracts, commercial mission services, spacecraft hardware, and engineering/software services — showing which parts drive sales and margins. For investors, segment detail reveals how much revenue is milestone-driven and lumpy versus potentially recurring, highlights single-customer or program concentration, and signals sensitivity to launch schedules, technical delays, or contract timing. Tracking shifts between segments helps assess growth sustainability, margin trends, and the company's ability to diversify risk beyond one-off missions.
Breaks down revenue across the company's business lines — for Intuitive Machines that typically means government/NASA contracts, commercial mission services, spacecraft hardware, and engineering/software services — showing which parts drive sales and margins. For investors, segment detail reveals how much revenue is milestone-driven and lumpy versus potentially recurring, highlights single-customer or program concentration, and signals sensitivity to launch schedules, technical delays, or contract timing. Tracking shifts between segments helps assess growth sustainability, margin trends, and the company's ability to diversify risk beyond one-off missions.
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The Fly
The FlyIntuitive Machines (LUNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.39
Revenue Growth116.89%
EPS Growth64.21%
CountryUS
Employees525
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.94
Shares Outstanding173,231,340
10 Day Avg. Volume4,870,443
30 Day Avg. Volume8,936,771
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)-2.59
Price to Sales (P/S)9.22
P/FCF Ratio-34.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.29Price Target Upside75.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$923.14M
Intuitive Machines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intuitive Machines, Inc. specializes in the development and provision of aerospace products and services. The company's core mission is to facilitate ongoing robotic and human missions aimed at exploring the Moon, Mars, and other distant celestial...
How the Company Makes Money
Intuitive Machines makes money primarily by performing contracted space missions and providing engineering and technology services, with revenue generally recognized as it satisfies performance obligations under customer contracts. A major revenue...
Intuitive Machines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong commercial momentum: record bookings, a materially larger and diversified backlog (~$1.8B), >4x revenue growth year-over-year and meaningful gross profit and adjusted EBITDA improvement. The company reinforced full-year revenue guidance ($900M–$1B) and expectations for positive adjusted EBITDA, while describing strategic acquisitions and investments that expand TAM and capabilities. Near-term challenges include continued negative adjusted EBITDA this quarter, operating cash use and an IM-4 EAC adjustment, plus timing/definitization risk that could shift revenue between years. On balance the call portrayed substantial progress toward scaled, diversified operations and improving profitability despite near-term cash and cost pressures.Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisitions and TAM Expansion
Acquisitions (Lanteris, KinetX, Goonhilly, COMSAT) expanded capabilities across manufacturing, mission operations and ground segment. Management estimates addressable market expanded from ~$20 billion a few years ago to well over $150 billion across civil, commercial and national security sectors.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Profitability Still Negative
Q2 adjusted EBITDA remained negative $14 million (improved from -$25 million prior year but still an operating loss). GAAP operating loss was $47 million for the quarter driven by higher SG&A, amortization and program adjustments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Acquisitions and TAM Expansion
Acquisitions (Lanteris, KinetX, Goonhilly, COMSAT) expanded capabilities across manufacturing, mission operations and ground segment. Management estimates addressable market expanded from ~$20 billion a few years ago to well over $150 billion across civil, commercial and national security sectors.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1.0 billion and reiterated an expectation for positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, anchored by a record $1.8 billion backlog (split ~37% civil / 49% commercial / 14% national security) and $1.7 billion of bookings year‑to‑date (including $1.2 billion in Q2 and ATPs expected to add ~$300 million in H2); they expect roughly 25%–30% of Q2 backlog to convert to 2026 revenue, 35%–40% in 2027 and the remainder thereafter. Quarterly metrics included $206 million revenue, $36 million gross profit (vs. -$12M prior year), adjusted EBITDA of -$14 million (improved from -$25M), an operating loss of $47 million, SG&A of $60 million (incl. ~$11M share‑based comp and ~$8M acquisition costs), R&D of $8 million, operating cash used of $60 million and $84 million total cash deployment (capex $24M); the company exited the quarter with $367 million cash and has raised $291 million gross to date (VWAP $26.81).Intuitive Machines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 490.12M | 210.06M | 228.00M | 79.52M | 85.95M | 72.55M |
| Gross Profit | 133.63M | 32.81M | 37.63M | -20.95M | 10.43M | -27.76M |
| EBITDA | -77.02M | -95.11M | -50.49M | 48.46M | 38.78M | -34.58M |
| Net Income | -130.87M | -83.29M | -283.41M | 62.80M | -6.41M | -35.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 757.15M | 355.40M | 85.93M | 67.00M | 43.45M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 367.35M | 582.61M | 207.61M | 4.56M | 25.76M | 29.29M |
| Total Debt | 429.80M | 372.16M | 37.38M | 43.48M | 25.76M | 14.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.17B | 553.45M | 351.48M | 137.50M | 124.62M | 95.29M |
| Stockholders Equity | -283.70M | -748.35M | -1.00B | -233.23M | -57.62M | -51.84M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -190.51M | -56.02M | -67.70M | -75.19M | -15.62M | -19.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -129.04M | -14.32M | -57.59M | -45.28M | 784.00K | -16.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -523.41M | -56.58M | -10.11M | -29.91M | -16.41M | -3.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 684.53M | 446.59M | 272.79M | 53.92M | 12.10M | 25.11M |
Intuitive Machines Technical Analysis
Negative
16.66
Price Trends
15.65
Negative
22.38
Negative
19.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.50
Positive
41.30
Neutral
34.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LUNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.58, above the 50-day MA of 15.65, and below the 200-day MA of 19.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LUNR.
Intuitive Machines Risk Analysis
Intuitive Machines disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Intuitive Machines reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Intuitive Machines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $37.74B | -223.76 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
53 Neutral | $2.67B | -7.45 | -20.75% | ― | 63.10% | 55.06% | |
50 Neutral | $3.42B | -15.56 | 29.79% | ― | 116.89% | 64.21% | |
50 Neutral | $7.16B | -25.27 | -6.64% | ― | 84.44% | -541.91% | |
50 Neutral | $749.25M | -3.39 | -221.18% | ― | ― | 1.65% | |
45 Neutral | $99.39M | 3.42 | -171.87% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
14.62
6.10
71.60%
AVAV
AeroVironment
147.07
-94.75
-39.18%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
0.55
-4.51
-89.05%
EVEX
Eve Holding
2.10
-1.79
-46.02%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
61.96
13.53
27.94%
RDW
Redwire
10.87
2.42
28.64%
Intuitive Machines Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Intuitive Machines Expands Space Communications with Key Acquisitions
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Intuitive Machines completed its previously announced acquisition of Goonhilly Earth Station Limited in the U.K. and COMSAT LLC in the U.S., securing world-class deep space communications providers with major ground station asse...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.