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Redwire
(NYSE:RDW)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(38.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
RDW’s score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—large ongoing losses and negative free cash flow—despite revenue growth and a currently supportive balance sheet. The latest earnings call provides a meaningful offset with strong bookings/backlog, improved gross margin, and materially stronger liquidity and lower debt. Technicals and valuation are mixed, adding limited support at this time.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth and backlog
Sustained, rapid top-line expansion and a record contracted backlog provide multi-quarter revenue visibility. High book-to-bill and sizable backlog support production planning, capacity utilisation and eventual operating leverage, making growth more predictable over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP losses and negative EBITDA
Deep, ongoing GAAP losses and negative adjusted EBITDA indicate the business has not yet reached positive operating economics. Until revenue scale and cost structure improvements sustainably convert to positive EBITDA and narrower GAAP losses, capital reliance and shareholder dilution risk remain elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth and backlog
Sustained, rapid top-line expansion and a record contracted backlog provide multi-quarter revenue visibility. High book-to-bill and sizable backlog support production planning, capacity utilisation and eventual operating leverage, making growth more predictable over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Redwire Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Book to Bill
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Compares the number of new orders received to the number of orders fulfilled, indicating demand strength and operational efficiency. A ratio above one suggests growth potential, while below one may signal declining demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRedwire (RDW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.30B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)23.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.16
Revenue Growth63.10%
EPS Growth55.06%
CountryUS
Employees1,410
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.46
Shares Outstanding249,992,610
10 Day Avg. Volume15,897,454
30 Day Avg. Volume23,841,048
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)2.71
P/FCF Ratio-4.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.75Price Target Upside81.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$469.26M
Redwire Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates in two segments Space and Defense Tech. The company offers sensor...
How the Company Makes Money
Redwire primarily makes money by delivering space hardware, integrated subsystems, and mission solutions to government and commercial customers under contracts and purchase orders. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Product and subsystem s...
Redwire Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong set of operational and financial improvements: record revenue, record backlog, materially stronger liquidity, a sharp reduction in debt and interest expense, improved gross margin, and clear product and contract momentum across both Space and Defense Tech. Key investments (R&D, facility expansions, inventory) and strategic milestones (Starfall purchase, ROSA selection, NATO UAS award) position the company for scaling. Remaining challenges include an ongoing GAAP net loss and negative adjusted EBITDA, a notable inventory build that pressures near-term cash, elevated R&D spend, and uncertainty around gross margin sustainability due to potential EAC adjustments and lumpy award timing. Overall, the positives—especially the sharp YoY revenue growth, backlog gains, and balance sheet strengthening—outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Rapid Growth
Total revenue of $117.1M in Q2 2026, up 20.7% sequentially and 89.6% year-over-year; year-to-date revenue of $214M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance reaffirmed at $450M to $500M (midpoint implies ~41.6% YoY growth).
Negative Updates
Continuing Net Loss and Negative Adjusted EBITDA
Net loss improved by $56M YoY to a net loss of $41M in Q2 2026, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $3.2M. Profitability milestones are improving but GAAP losses and negative EBITDA persist.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Rapid Growth
Total revenue of $117.1M in Q2 2026, up 20.7% sequentially and 89.6% year-over-year; year-to-date revenue of $214M. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance reaffirmed at $450M to $500M (midpoint implies ~41.6% YoY growth).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Redwire reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $450–$500 million (midpoint implying ~41.6% YoY growth), citing year‑to‑date revenue of $214 million and Q2 revenue of $117.1 million (up 20.7% sequential and 89.6% YoY; Space $55.2M; Defense Tech $61.9M), Q2 bookings of $165.8 million and more than $350 million in bookings over the last two quarters, a Q2 book‑to‑bill of 1.42 (LTM 1.52), and record contracted backlog of $542.1 million (Space $322.0M; Defense Tech $220.2M) as drivers of confidence for second‑half growth. Management also highlighted record Q2 gross margin of 27.8% while guiding near‑term gross margin to the low‑to‑mid‑20s, adjusted EBITDA of negative $3.2M, net loss of $41M (improved $56M YoY), record liquidity of $607.8M (cash $557.8M; $50M undrawn revolver), debt reduced 75% to $48.9M, net interest expense < $1M (vs $23.8M in Q2 2025), shares outstanding of 249.9M, R&D investment in Q2 up to $12.5M, and a ~23% sequential rise in inventory.Redwire Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 426.27M | 335.38M | 304.10M | 243.80M | 160.55M | 137.60M |
| Gross Profit | 85.66M | 17.29M | 44.45M | 57.97M | 28.70M | 29.38M |
| EBITDA | -170.96M | -179.22M | -21.40M | -4.81M | -35.30M | -32.99M |
| Net Income | -244.10M | -226.55M | -114.31M | -27.26M | -130.62M | -61.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.94B | 1.45B | 292.62M | 271.27M | 257.70M | 261.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 557.72M | 95.18M | 49.07M | 30.28M | 28.32M | 20.52M |
| Total Debt | 87.10M | 231.30M | 144.98M | 105.83M | 95.08M | 78.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 313.49M | 389.12M | 344.53M | 218.44M | 187.81M | 154.53M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.63B | 1.06B | -51.91M | 52.60M | 69.66M | 107.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -102.82M | -190.81M | -23.75M | -7.10M | -35.81M | -40.22M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -76.19M | -177.33M | -17.35M | 1.23M | -31.66M | -37.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -29.78M | -175.07M | -7.20M | -8.33M | -37.38M | -38.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 585.47M | 397.50M | 43.72M | 9.06M | 76.56M | 74.21M |
Redwire Technical Analysis
Positive
8.69
Price Trends
11.96
Positive
11.98
Positive
10.20
Positive
Market Momentum
0.61
Negative
62.88
Neutral
91.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.27, below the 50-day MA of 11.96, and below the 200-day MA of 10.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDW.
Redwire Risk Analysis
Redwire disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwire reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Redwire Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | $5.37B | -6.13 | -40.86% | ― | ― | 15.37% | |
55 Neutral | $47.93B | -289.82 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
53 Neutral | $3.30B | -9.30 | -20.75% | ― | 63.10% | 55.06% | |
47 Neutral | $3.81B | -20.24 | 26.62% | ― | 116.89% | 64.21% | |
46 Neutral | $476.01M | -0.98 | -88.50% | ― | -38.87% | 62.62% | |
39 Underperform | $106.69M | -0.20 | 251.21% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
RDW
Redwire
13.58
4.64
51.90%
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
3.32
0.33
11.04%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
0.83
-4.22
-83.58%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
80.25
35.98
81.27%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
6.62
-3.20
-32.59%
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
19.01
9.93
109.36%
Redwire Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Redwire appoints new independent director to board
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 10, 2026, Redwire Corporation’s board appointed retired Ernst Young audit partner Gregory L. Heston to fill a vacancy created by the previously announced resignation of director David Kornblatt, marking a change in the company’...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Redwire Expands Revolving Credit Facility, Boosts Liquidity
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Redwire Defense Tech Intermediate Holdings, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Redwire Corporation, amended its Amended and Restated Credit Agreement to increase commitments under its revolving credit facility from $30 million to ...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Redwire Reaches Preliminary Settlement in Derivative Lawsuit
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 8, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida granted preliminary approval for a proposed settlement of shareholder derivative claims brought on behalf of Redwire against several current and former directors and offic...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Redwire Establishes Expanded At-The-Market Equity Program
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Redwire Corporation entered into a new equity distribution agreement with a syndicate of investment banks, enabling the company to sell up to $500 million of common stock through at-the-market offerings, block trades, and privatel...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Redwire Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Redwire Corporation held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where a quorum was established with holders of 133,710,048 shares of common and Series A preferred stock present or represented by proxy. Shareholders elected three...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.