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Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
(NASDAQ:FLY)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(8.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—large ongoing losses and significant cash burn despite improved revenue and a better equity position. The earnings call provides the main offset, citing strong backlog, liquidity, and reiterated growth guidance, while technicals are neutral and valuation remains constrained by losses and lack of dividend support.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
The record backlog and high proportion of booked 2026 revenue provide meaningful visibility into near-term demand and reduce reliance on winning all work immediately. Continued contract awards across lunar, launch, and national-security programs could support sustained growth if Firefly executes.
Negative Factors
Persistent Losses and Cash Burn
Large ongoing losses and worsening quarterly free-cash-flow outflow show that growth has not yet translated into self-funded operations. Continued investment in vehicles, spacecraft, and facilities therefore requires substantial external funding, which can constrain flexibility if execution or revenue timing slips.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Revenue Visibility
The record backlog and high proportion of booked 2026 revenue provide meaningful visibility into near-term demand and reduce reliance on winning all work immediately. Continued contract awards across lunar, launch, and national-security programs could support sustained growth if Firefly executes.
Read all positive factors
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. (FLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.46B
Dividend Yield7.52%
Average Volume (3M)3.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)4.20
Revenue Growth179.17%
EPS Growth-13.42%
CountryUS
Employees1,409
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.39
Shares Outstanding167,404,650
10 Day Avg. Volume3,842,726
30 Day Avg. Volume2,999,395
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.52
Price to Book (P/B)2.86
Price to Sales (P/S)21.26
P/FCF Ratio-14.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit75.50
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-12.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside85.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$439.34M
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is an innovative aerospace and defense technology firm that provides advanced mission capabilities for a wide range of clients, including national security initiatives, governmental bodies, and commercial ventures. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
Firefly Aerospace makes money primarily by selling space transportation and mission services under contract. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Launch services revenue: Firefly sells rides to orbit on its Alpha rocket to commercial customers and...
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and commercial momentum highlighted by record quarterly revenue ($117.7M), a record $1.5B backlog, substantial liquidity (~$940M), multiple high-profile contract wins (NASA lunar missions, MoonFall, SkyFall, Golden Dome, GBRD) and meaningful production and engine test milestones (Miranda engine). Non-GAAP profitability metrics showed quarterly improvement, and strategic acquisitions (Space-ng, SciTec) improved vertical integration. Offsetting these positives were sizable GAAP losses, negative free cash flow (worsened q/q), a slight decline in GAAP gross margin, increased operating and stock-based compensation expenses, share dilution from an equity raise, and execution/timing risks tied to launch schedules and external approvals. Given the combination of accelerating revenue/backlog, cash runway, and technical progress versus ongoing operating losses and near-term cash burn, the overall tone is constructive and growth-oriented but still depends on successful execution of launches and margin expansion.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Second quarter revenue of $117.7 million, up 46% sequentially and 659% year-over-year, driven by strong Spacecraft Solutions execution (Spacecraft revenue $108.3M; Launch $9.4M).
Negative Updates
Sustained Net Losses and Negative Cash Flow
GAAP net loss of $92.3M (vs. $96.7M prior quarter) and GAAP operating loss of $95.2M. Free cash flow was an outflow of $106.3M (worse than $78.9M prior quarter), a ~34.7% increase in cash outflow quarter-over-quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Second quarter revenue of $117.7 million, up 46% sequentially and 659% year-over-year, driven by strong Spacecraft Solutions execution (Spacecraft revenue $108.3M; Launch $9.4M).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Firefly reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of $420–$450 million, anchored by Q2 results of $117.7 million (up 46% sequentially and 659% year‑over‑year), with Spacecraft revenue of $108.3M and Launch $9.4M, and a record backlog of ~$1.5 billion (up from $1.3B) and roughly 95% of 2026 revenue booked at the midpoint; Q2 GAAP gross margin was 20.3% (vs 21.6% prior), GAAP operating expenses $119.1M/non‑GAAP $94.3M, GAAP operating loss $95.2M/non‑GAAP operating loss $70.4M, GAAP net loss $92.3M/non‑GAAP net loss $67.7M, GAAP EPS ‑$0.57/non‑GAAP EPS ‑$0.42 (weighted average shares 161.8M, 166.2M outstanding at quarter end, ~167.2M expected in Q3, rising ~1M per quarter); adjusted EBITDA loss was $61.2M, total liquidity stood at $940.3M ($635.3M cash/short‑term investments + $305M revolver), Q2 capex was $24.8M, free cash flow outflow $106.3M (including a ~ $24M SciTec payment), the June equity raise contributed ~$182.6M net, and notable program and contract metrics cited include Elytra MoonFall $75M, JPL SkyFall $13M, GBRD $94M, Space‑ng adding ~15 engineers, a target of three Alpha launches in 2026 with Flight 8 targeting Q4 (Flights 10–11 in production), Miranda engine >150 hot fires including a 226s flight‑like test (MDC 206s), and an inaugural Eclipse launch targeted no earlier than 2027.Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 287.01M | 159.85M | 60.79M | 55.23M |
| Gross Profit | 55.30M | 24.87M | -11.37M | 26.60M |
| EBITDA | -345.61M | -290.75M | -198.22M | -126.79M |
| Net Income | -363.46M | -298.34M | -231.13M | -135.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 1.64B | 1.82B | 407.33M | 321.21M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 635.26M | 892.97M | 123.43M | 81.94M |
| Total Debt | 53.40M | 308.59M | 168.40M | 120.95M |
| Total Liabilities | 416.30M | 635.00M | 1.17B | 825.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.22B | 1.19B | -767.62M | -504.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -326.49M | -237.75M | -190.35M | -170.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -264.42M | -204.92M | -157.65M | -93.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -509.50M | -401.56M | -32.70M | -69.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.01B | 1.26B | 232.76M | 240.73M |
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
21.26
Price Trends
22.92
Negative
27.24
Negative
27.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
41.06
Neutral
18.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.27, below the 50-day MA of 22.92, and below the 200-day MA of 27.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLY.
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Risk Analysis
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Firefly Aerospace, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $40.93B | -247.76 | -7.56% | ― | 52.53% | 38.89% | |
51 Neutral | $3.46B | -8.34 | -32.55% | 7.52% | 179.17% | -13.42% | |
49 Neutral | $445.69M | -0.84 | -88.50% | ― | -38.87% | 62.62% | |
46 Neutral | $91.79M | 3.27 | -171.87% | ― | ― | ― | |
46 Neutral | $159.94M | -2.24 | -35.30% | ― | -32.61% | 65.30% | |
38 Underperform | $74.24M | -0.17 | -90.19% | ― | 323.98% | 89.46% |
* Industrials Sector Average
FLY
Firefly Aerospace, Inc.
20.67
-7.69
-27.12%
SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings
2.94
-1.15
-28.12%
MNTS
Momentus
3.38
-21.07
-86.18%
EVTL
Vertical Aerospace
0.54
-4.78
-89.77%
RKLB
Rocket Lab USA
68.40
4.14
6.44%
SIDU
Sidus Space, Inc. Class A
1.58
0.37
30.58%
Firefly Aerospace, Inc. Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Firefly Aerospace Appoints Rick Ambrose to Board
Positive
Oct 6, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. director Thomas Zurbuchen resigned from the board, with the company stating his departure did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices. The board formally expressed apprec...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.