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Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) AI Stock Analysis
Riley Exploration Permian
(NYSE MKT:REPX)
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). Financial performance is solid but held back by softer free-cash-flow conversion and cyclical variability, while the earnings update is net positive due to raised production guidance but tempered by midstream constraints, higher costs/CapEx, and a modest debt uptick.
Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.03B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.40%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 275.46K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.43
- Revenue Growth
- 23.16%
- EPS Growth
- 21.24%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 122
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Riley Exploration Permian Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) functions as an independent energy company, engaged in the entire process of hydrocarbon extraction—from acquiring properties and exploring for reserves to developing sites and producing oil, natural gas, and na...
How the Company Makes Money
REPX primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from its wells. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to purchasers (e.g., marketers, refiners, or midstream counterparties) at p...
Riley Exploration Permian Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and strategic update: record activity, meaningful drilling and cost efficiency gains, strong safety performance, and upgraded production guidance (roughly 30% YoY). Key value-creating items included strong Silverback performance, high-return workovers adding ~700 bbl/d, and measurable unit-cost improvements across Texas and New Mexico. Near-term challenges tempering the outlook include midstream constraints that caused ~2,000 bbl/d of temporary shut-ins, higher LOE and infrastructure-driven CapEx, a substantial build in cash CapEx that compressed quarterly free cash flow to $6M, and a modest increase in debt. Management expects the Targa pipeline and WaterBridge disposal capacity to relieve constraints and support accelerated production in H2 and into 2027, and they forecast higher free cash flow in H2 than H1. Weighing the operational wins and upgraded production outlook against the midstream, cost, and cash-flow pressures, the positives modestly outweigh the negatives.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its full‑year production outlook and updated 2026 financial pacing: June exit oil production was 24,400 bpd, Q2 average oil grew ~5% sequentially, Q3 guidance at the midpoint is 25,600 bpd (≈5% above June and >20% above Q2), and full‑year oil production midpoint was increased to ~23,000 bpd (implying ~30%+ year‑over‑year growth); Q2 operational metrics included net drilled/ completed/turned‑to‑sales of 19.9 / 17.3 / 13.9 wells and a drilled:turned ratio of 1.2 (carrying DUCs into 2027); Q2 accrual CapEx was $87M (Drill & Complete $70M; Infrastructure/Other ~$17M) with Q3 accrual CapEx guided to $59M and full‑year CapEx raised 12% (+$26M) to $236M (≈1/3 upstream, 2/3 infrastructure, ~60% of the infrastructure bump tied to saltwater‑disposal), while Q2 cash CapEx was $18M (21% below accrual), operating cash flow was $64M, Q2 free cash flow was $6M (YTD ~$30M) with H2 free cash flow expected to be higher, quarter‑end debt rose 11% to $273M, the company spent $9.5M on dividends/buybacks and closed a $2.4M acreage purchase (4 net locations, ~$600k/location), and key timing assumptions include the Targa high‑pressure line entering service early Q4 and WaterBridge SWD support beginning in September.
Riley Exploration Permian Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are solid but cyclical: strong TTM revenue growth (+19.9%) and healthy profitability (~24.5% net margin) support the score, while weaker recent cash conversion (FCF ~$61M and ~25.6% of net income) and slightly softer cash-flow robustness temper it. Leverage is moderate and improved (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.42).
Income Statement
74PositiveBalance Sheet
70PositiveCash Flow
63Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 483.86M | 391.98M | 410.18M | 375.05M | 321.74M | 3.04M |
| Gross Profit | 289.39M | 181.88M | 234.03M | 220.87M | 237.45M | -710.00K |
| EBITDA | 221.50M | 334.19M | 223.50M | 240.03M | 182.81M | -2.87M |
| Net Income | 118.67M | 160.84M | 88.90M | 111.59M | 118.01M | -3.65M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.27B | 1.17B | 993.50M | 945.71M | 515.29M | 5.37M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.69M | 17.89M | 13.12M | 15.32M | 13.30M | 1.56M |
| Total Debt | 267.50M | 255.01M | 277.17M | 362.00M | 60.61M | 119.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 637.14M | 535.34M | 482.89M | 524.12M | 181.85M | 2.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 633.35M | 634.24M | 510.62M | 421.60M | 333.45M | 2.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.50M | 86.25M | 116.35M | 65.89M | 42.03M | -1.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 239.19M | 212.54M | 246.27M | 207.19M | 170.29M | -1.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -176.96M | -145.77M | -147.84M | -469.56M | -128.26M | -71.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -55.57M | -62.01M | -100.63M | 264.38M | -37.05M | 126.00K |
Riley Exploration Permian Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.30 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.41, above the 50-day MA of 43.84, and above the 200-day MA of 35.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REPX.
Riley Exploration Permian Risk Analysis
Riley Exploration Permian disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Riley Exploration Permian reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
- Finance & Corporate35
- Tech & Innovation4
- Legal & Regulatory20
- Production18
- Ability to Sell4
- Macro & Political4
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskRiley Exploration Permian Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
PR83Outperform
MTDR77Outperform- REPX74Outperform
FANG73Outperform
CRGY66Neutral
REI57Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PR | 83Outperform | $21.79B | 15.88 | 11.32% | 2.57% | 12.81% | -5.91% |
| MTDR | 77Outperform | $7.53B | 9.56 | 12.76% | 2.69% | 1.84% | -14.76% |
| REPX | 74Outperform | $1.18B | 8.51 | 19.88% | 3.40% | 23.16% | 21.24% |
| FANG | 73Outperform | $59.39B | 27.32 | 4.22% | 2.13% | 21.45% | -63.30% |
| CRGY | 66Neutral | $5.83B | 77.59 | 1.12% | 3.56% | 24.25% | ― |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| REI | 57Neutral | $372.57M | -1.16 | -28.80% | ― | -3.15% | -416.57% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REPX | Riley Exploration Permian Inc | 47.66 | 23.39 | 96.41% | |
| MTDR | Matador Resources | 55.76 | 19.73 | 54.75% | |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | 199.74 | 65.68 | 48.99% | |
| REI | Ring Energy Inc | 1.28 | 0.32 | 33.06% | |
| PR | Permian Resources Corporation | 24.56 | 12.84 | 109.52% | |
| CRGY | Crescent Energy Company Class A | 13.47 | 5.73 | 73.92% |
Riley Exploration Permian Corporate Events
Riley Exploration Permian Refinances Debt, Extends Credit Facility
PositiveOn October 5, 2026, Riley Exploration Permian fully repaid its outstanding $130 million 10.50% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2028 at par plus accrued interest, with no prepayment premium, marking a significant shift in its debt profile. The repayment wa...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 07, 2026