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Vaalco Energy Inc (EGY)
NYSE:EGY
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Vaalco Energy (EGY) AI Stock Analysis

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EGY

Vaalco Energy

(NYSE:EGY)

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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-3.85% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial performance indicators in the most recent TTM period (loss-making results, higher leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow). Offsetting this, the earnings call signaled improving operational momentum with reaffirmed stronger 2026 guidance and a profitable Q2, while technicals are modestly supportive and valuation benefits from a relatively high dividend yield despite a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Q2 Profitability & Cash Flow
A profitable quarter with healthy adjusted EBITDAX demonstrates the company can convert higher volumes and prices into meaningful operating cash. Over 2–6 months this improves funding capacity for maintenance and development, reduces near‑term refinancing pressure and shows operational resilience across asset bases.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Leverage increasing materially reduces financial flexibility to absorb cost inflation, timing variances or project delays. Over a multi‑month horizon this heightens refinancing and covenant risk, constrains discretionary investment and limits the company's ability to respond to adverse commodity or operational shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Q2 Profitability & Cash Flow
A profitable quarter with healthy adjusted EBITDAX demonstrates the company can convert higher volumes and prices into meaningful operating cash. Over 2–6 months this improves funding capacity for maintenance and development, reduces near‑term refinancing pressure and shows operational resilience across asset bases.
Read all positive factors

Vaalco Energy (EGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vaalco Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
VAALCO Energy, an independent oil and gas enterprise, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas resources. Its primary asset is the Etame production sharing contract, covering the offshore Et...
How the Company Makes Money
VAALCO makes money primarily by producing crude oil (and, where applicable, natural gas) from the fields in which it holds working interests and selling those volumes into the market. Revenue is driven by (1) production volumes attributable to VAA...

Vaalco Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter with material improvements in production, sales and profitability. Management highlighted successful asset restarts (Baobab), drilling successes in Gabon and Egypt, meaningful resource upside at Kossipo, cost-saving opportunities from switching to field gas, and improved hedging results. Challenges include an unexpected rapid water cut and decline in one key Gabon well (Ebouri-5H) that reduced near-term Gabon performance, some exploration setbacks/timing delays, and sensitivity to diesel/freight inflation and commodity pricing which affect costs and leverage. On balance, the positive operational momentum, prudent capital and hedging actions, and clear multi-asset development runway outweigh the disclosed challenges.
Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Profitability and Cash Flow
Net income of $42.4 million in Q2 2026 ($0.39 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDAX of $54.8 million, driven by higher sales volumes and realized pricing.
Negative Updates
Ebouri-5H Water Cut and Faster-than-Expected Decline
Ebouri-5H initially flowed ~8,000 gross BOPD but experienced a faster-than-expected increase in water cut (approaching field average ~75%–80%), causing production performance to decline versus prior models and reducing near-term Gabon expectations.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Strong Q2 Profitability and Cash Flow
Net income of $42.4 million in Q2 2026 ($0.39 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDAX of $54.8 million, driven by higher sales volumes and realized pricing.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
VAALCO reaffirmed stronger 2026 guidance, forecasting Q3 working‑interest production of 24,400–26,900 BOPD (NRI production 19,600–21,600 BOPD) and Q3 NRI sales of 17,200–18,900 BOPD (Q3 production ~23% above Q2), noting a single Côte d’Ivoire Q3 lifting of ~950,000 gross barrels (VAALCO 27.4% WI) and two smaller partner liftings in Gabon; Q2 actuals were 21,796 WI BOPD / 16,688 NRI BOPD with sales of 17,812 NRI BOPD, net income of $42.4M ($0.39/sh) and adjusted EBITDAX of $54.8M. For Q3 they expect absolute production costs of $25–$29 per NRI barrel, exploration expense of $3–$4M, cash G&A of $7–$9M, offshore workovers reduced to $0, and Q3 CapEx of $75–$115M (full‑year CapEx midpoint unchanged); year‑to‑date CapEx was $103.6M cash ($98.9M accrual). Balance‑sheet/hedge metrics include unrestricted cash of $30.4M, a $25M draw on the RBL (aggregate borrowing base $300M, $177M drawn, net debt $147M), and typically 30–40% of production hedged out to 12 months; management says overall 2026 production and sales guidance is ~10% above prior estimates and expects stronger H2 results.

Vaalco Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial statements show weakened near-term quality: profitability flipped to a sizable TTM loss (net margin about -31%) and leverage increased (debt-to-equity rising to ~0.64). Operating cash flow is still solid (~$157M TTM), but free cash flow is deeply negative (about -$251M TTM), raising funding and execution risk if heavy spending persists.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Mar 2023Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue349.81M359.27M478.99M455.07M354.33M199.07M
Gross Profit131.53M82.20M172.45M186.61M193.52M96.76M
EBITDA13.68M91.65M286.56M276.54M173.49M101.03M
Net Income-108.81M-41.39M57.78M60.35M51.89M81.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets968.57M913.38M954.95M823.22M855.64M263.09M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments30.39M58.90M82.65M121.11M37.20M48.67M
Total Debt65.46M128.44M98.17M90.80M89.06M10.23M
Total Liabilities588.24M469.69M453.37M344.43M389.54M118.79M
Stockholders Equity380.33M443.50M501.58M478.78M466.11M144.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-251.27M-43.22M10.72M126.37M-31.05M11.05M
Operating Cash Flow156.87M212.67M113.72M223.60M128.85M50.12M
Investing Cash Flow-357.19M-255.89M-102.12M-97.22M-123.21M-39.06M
Financing Cash Flow153.62M12.38M-43.05M-56.82M-17.95M-57.00K

Vaalco Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.72
Price Trends
50DMA
5.37
Positive
100DMA
5.55
Positive
200DMA
4.98
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.13
Positive
RSI
57.08
Neutral
STOCH
26.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.60, above the 50-day MA of 5.37, and above the 200-day MA of 4.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EGY.

Vaalco Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$515.72M6.2516.02%3.43%29.58%10.28%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
$364.76M-1.33-28.80%-3.15%-416.57%
62
Neutral
$630.14M6.6129.19%2.43%-9.51%83.18%
57
Neutral
$598.54M-5.45-25.99%4.50%-25.46%-387.85%
55
Neutral
$356.99M-1.40-122.23%2.69%-289.33%
51
Neutral
$538.87M-5.0154.96%1.09%13.75%3.54%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EGY
Vaalco Energy
5.77
2.06
55.74%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
10.11
5.96
143.61%
SD
SandRidge Energy
14.12
2.90
25.88%
WTI
W&T Offshore
3.66
1.88
106.08%
REI
Ring Energy
1.47
0.37
33.64%
GPRK
GeoPark
9.85
3.44
53.64%

Vaalco Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Vaalco Energy Reports Strong Q2 Turnaround and Growth
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Vaalco Energy reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026, highlighting a sharp operational and financial turnaround driven by higher production and sales across Gabon, Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire. The company sold 17,812 net rev...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vaalco Energy Shareholders Back Board, Incentive Plan Changes
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
Vaalco Energy held its Annual Meeting on June 4, 2026, with 74,670,428 common shares represented in person or by proxy, where shareholders elected five directors, including Andrew L. Fawthrop and George W. M. Maxwell, each to serve a one-year term...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 09, 2026