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Vaalco Energy
(NYSE:EGY)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-3.85% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial performance indicators in the most recent TTM period (loss-making results, higher leverage, and deeply negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow). Offsetting this, the earnings call signaled improving operational momentum with reaffirmed stronger 2026 guidance and a profitable Q2, while technicals are modestly supportive and valuation benefits from a relatively high dividend yield despite a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Q2 Profitability & Cash Flow
A profitable quarter with healthy adjusted EBITDAX demonstrates the company can convert higher volumes and prices into meaningful operating cash. Over 2–6 months this improves funding capacity for maintenance and development, reduces near‑term refinancing pressure and shows operational resilience across asset bases.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Leverage increasing materially reduces financial flexibility to absorb cost inflation, timing variances or project delays. Over a multi‑month horizon this heightens refinancing and covenant risk, constrains discretionary investment and limits the company's ability to respond to adverse commodity or operational shocks.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Q2 Profitability & Cash Flow
A profitable quarter with healthy adjusted EBITDAX demonstrates the company can convert higher volumes and prices into meaningful operating cash. Over 2–6 months this improves funding capacity for maintenance and development, reduces near‑term refinancing pressure and shows operational resilience across asset bases.
Read all positive factors
Vaalco Energy (EGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$598.54M
Dividend Yield4.33%
Average Volume (3M)1.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth-25.46%
EPS Growth-387.85%
CountryUS
Employees281
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.06
Shares Outstanding105,191,780
10 Day Avg. Volume1,110,289
30 Day Avg. Volume1,407,023
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio-8.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.91Price Target Upside55.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$437.04M
Vaalco Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
VAALCO Energy, an independent oil and gas enterprise, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil and natural gas resources. Its primary asset is the Etame production sharing contract, covering the offshore Et...
How the Company Makes Money
VAALCO makes money primarily by producing crude oil (and, where applicable, natural gas) from the fields in which it holds working interests and selling those volumes into the market. Revenue is driven by (1) production volumes attributable to VAA...
Vaalco Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial quarter with material improvements in production, sales and profitability. Management highlighted successful asset restarts (Baobab), drilling successes in Gabon and Egypt, meaningful resource upside at Kossipo, cost-saving opportunities from switching to field gas, and improved hedging results. Challenges include an unexpected rapid water cut and decline in one key Gabon well (Ebouri-5H) that reduced near-term Gabon performance, some exploration setbacks/timing delays, and sensitivity to diesel/freight inflation and commodity pricing which affect costs and leverage. On balance, the positive operational momentum, prudent capital and hedging actions, and clear multi-asset development runway outweigh the disclosed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Profitability and Cash Flow
Net income of $42.4 million in Q2 2026 ($0.39 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDAX of $54.8 million, driven by higher sales volumes and realized pricing.
Negative Updates
Ebouri-5H Water Cut and Faster-than-Expected Decline
Ebouri-5H initially flowed ~8,000 gross BOPD but experienced a faster-than-expected increase in water cut (approaching field average ~75%–80%), causing production performance to decline versus prior models and reducing near-term Gabon expectations.
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Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Profitability and Cash Flow
Net income of $42.4 million in Q2 2026 ($0.39 per diluted share) and adjusted EBITDAX of $54.8 million, driven by higher sales volumes and realized pricing.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
VAALCO reaffirmed stronger 2026 guidance, forecasting Q3 working‑interest production of 24,400–26,900 BOPD (NRI production 19,600–21,600 BOPD) and Q3 NRI sales of 17,200–18,900 BOPD (Q3 production ~23% above Q2), noting a single Côte d’Ivoire Q3 lifting of ~950,000 gross barrels (VAALCO 27.4% WI) and two smaller partner liftings in Gabon; Q2 actuals were 21,796 WI BOPD / 16,688 NRI BOPD with sales of 17,812 NRI BOPD, net income of $42.4M ($0.39/sh) and adjusted EBITDAX of $54.8M. For Q3 they expect absolute production costs of $25–$29 per NRI barrel, exploration expense of $3–$4M, cash G&A of $7–$9M, offshore workovers reduced to $0, and Q3 CapEx of $75–$115M (full‑year CapEx midpoint unchanged); year‑to‑date CapEx was $103.6M cash ($98.9M accrual). Balance‑sheet/hedge metrics include unrestricted cash of $30.4M, a $25M draw on the RBL (aggregate borrowing base $300M, $177M drawn, net debt $147M), and typically 30–40% of production hedged out to 12 months; management says overall 2026 production and sales guidance is ~10% above prior estimates and expects stronger H2 results.Vaalco Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 349.81M | 359.27M | 478.99M | 455.07M | 354.33M | 199.07M |
| Gross Profit | 131.53M | 82.20M | 172.45M | 186.61M | 193.52M | 96.76M |
| EBITDA | 13.68M | 91.65M | 286.56M | 276.54M | 173.49M | 101.03M |
| Net Income | -108.81M | -41.39M | 57.78M | 60.35M | 51.89M | 81.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 968.57M | 913.38M | 954.95M | 823.22M | 855.64M | 263.09M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.39M | 58.90M | 82.65M | 121.11M | 37.20M | 48.67M |
| Total Debt | 65.46M | 128.44M | 98.17M | 90.80M | 89.06M | 10.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 588.24M | 469.69M | 453.37M | 344.43M | 389.54M | 118.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 380.33M | 443.50M | 501.58M | 478.78M | 466.11M | 144.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -251.27M | -43.22M | 10.72M | 126.37M | -31.05M | 11.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 156.87M | 212.67M | 113.72M | 223.60M | 128.85M | 50.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -357.19M | -255.89M | -102.12M | -97.22M | -123.21M | -39.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 153.62M | 12.38M | -43.05M | -56.82M | -17.95M | -57.00K |
Vaalco Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
5.72
Price Trends
5.37
Positive
5.55
Positive
4.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Positive
57.08
Neutral
26.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.60, above the 50-day MA of 5.37, and above the 200-day MA of 4.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EGY.
Vaalco Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $515.72M | 6.25 | 16.02% | 3.43% | 29.58% | 10.28% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $364.76M | -1.33 | -28.80% | ― | -3.15% | -416.57% | |
62 Neutral | $630.14M | 6.61 | 29.19% | 2.43% | -9.51% | 83.18% | |
57 Neutral | $598.54M | -5.45 | -25.99% | 4.50% | -25.46% | -387.85% | |
55 Neutral | $356.99M | -1.40 | -122.23% | ― | 2.69% | -289.33% | |
51 Neutral | $538.87M | -5.01 | 54.96% | 1.09% | 13.75% | 3.54% |
* Energy Sector Average
EGY
Vaalco Energy
5.77
2.06
55.74%
GTE
Gran Tierra Energy
10.11
5.96
143.61%
SD
SandRidge Energy
14.12
2.90
25.88%
WTI
W&T Offshore
3.66
1.88
106.08%
REI
Ring Energy
1.47
0.37
33.64%
GPRK
GeoPark
9.85
3.44
53.64%
Vaalco Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Vaalco Energy Reports Strong Q2 Turnaround and Growth
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Vaalco Energy reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 6, 2026, highlighting a sharp operational and financial turnaround driven by higher production and sales across Gabon, Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire. The company sold 17,812 net rev...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vaalco Energy Shareholders Back Board, Incentive Plan Changes
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
Vaalco Energy held its Annual Meeting on June 4, 2026, with 74,670,428 common shares represented in person or by proxy, where shareholders elected five directors, including Andrew L. Fawthrop and George W. M. Maxwell, each to serve a one-year term...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.