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Granite Ridge Resources
(NYSE:GRNT)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-0.79% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
The score is primarily driven by mixed financial performance: strong operating cash flow and conservative leverage are outweighed by a TTM net loss and persistently negative free cash flow. Technicals are moderately positive with supportive trend indicators, while valuation is helped by a high dividend yield but constrained by loss-driven negative P/E. Earnings-call commentary adds modest support via a defined 2027 FCF inflection plan, tempered by near-term LOE and gas-realization headwinds.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth, cash generation and conservative leverage
Revenue growth and strong operating cash flow indicate that Granite Ridge is converting its upstream interests into meaningful operating liquidity. Conservative current leverage provides financial flexibility to fund development and acquisitions while reducing balance-sheet strain over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistently negative free cash flow and recent net loss
Negative free cash flow shows that development and acquisition investment currently exceeds internally generated cash, limiting financial flexibility if the pattern persists. The recent net loss also indicates that revenue growth has not yet translated into durable bottom-line profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth, cash generation and conservative leverage
Revenue growth and strong operating cash flow indicate that Granite Ridge is converting its upstream interests into meaningful operating liquidity. Conservative current leverage provides financial flexibility to fund development and acquisitions while reducing balance-sheet strain over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$589.59M
Dividend Yield9.76%
Average Volume (3M)1.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth14.60%
EPS Growth-187.70%
CountryUS
Employees6
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding131,900,240
10 Day Avg. Volume1,266,909
30 Day Avg. Volume1,520,179
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.91
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio-4.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.50Price Target Upside48.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$583.56M
Granite Ridge Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. oversees private investment funds, strategically directing capital towards prominent oil and natural gas formations such as the Midland, Delaware, Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ, and Haynesville. Its core business involves th...
How the Company Makes Money
Granite Ridge makes money by earning its proportionate share of production revenue from oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids generated by wells in which it owns a working interest, while third-party operators conduct drilling, completion, and...
Granite Ridge Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational progress: rising production, disciplined inventory capture through Operated Partnerships, improving EBITDAX, solid cash generation, conservative leverage, and a clear 2027 plan for a free cash flow inflection. The principal near-term headwinds are elevated LOE and weak Permian gas realizations (Waha basis), which pressured per-unit economics in H1 and forced a modest upward LOE guidance revision. Management provided mitigation pathways (LOE trending down as volumes ramp, basis hedges through Q1 2028, and improving takeaway capacity) and reiterated the durability of the strategy and dividend, leading to a net-positive outlook.Positive Updates
Production and Mix
Q2 production of 32,044 BOE/d, with oil ~51% of mix; company expects exit production approaching ~40,000 BOE/d and high-single-digit production growth in 2027.
Negative Updates
Elevated Lease Operating Expense (LOE)
LOE was $30.0M in Q2 or $10.27/BOE (up from $9.57/BOE in Q1, +~7.3% Q/Q); combined H1 LOE of $9.91/BOE. Management raised full-year LOE guidance to $8.25–$9.25/BOE (increase of roughly $1.50/BOE vs prior guidance, ~+20%), citing water handling in the Permian and higher early-life costs on new pads.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production and Mix
Q2 production of 32,044 BOE/d, with oil ~51% of mix; company expects exit production approaching ~40,000 BOE/d and high-single-digit production growth in 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 as the last outspend year and guided to a 2027 free-cash-flow inflection, targeting a ~10% free cash flow yield, ~1.25x dividend coverage, leverage around 1.25x and high-single-digit production growth in 2027 (commodity planning case: ~$65/bbl oil), while maintaining a roughly $250M maintenance capital reference; for 2026 they raised LOE guidance to $8.25–$9.25/BOE (Q2 LOE was $10.27/BOE; H1 LOE $9.91/BOE), expect Q3 volumes to step up modestly and a more meaningful Q4 ramp with oil ≈52% of mix and exit production approaching 40,000 BOE/d, and see per-unit costs declining in H2 as new volumes dilute fixed costs; other metrics called out: Q2 production 32,044 BOE/d (51% oil), Q2 oil & gas sales $149.3M, unhedged realized price $51.19/BOE ($43.39/BOE including settled hedges), Adjusted EBITDAX $79.6M, cash from operations $55.6M ($69.5M before working capital), Q2 gas sales $9.6M (management expects >$30M in Q3 if Basis holds), basis hedges through Q1 2028, D&C capex $78.5M and acquisition cash $16.7M in Q2 (total committed ~$28M adding 21.9 net locations), and ending liquidity/capital structure of $44.1M cash, $125M drawn on revolver, $350M senior notes (net debt ~$418M; current leverage ~1.4x).Granite Ridge Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 495.69M | 450.31M | 380.03M | 394.07M | 497.42M | 290.19M |
| Gross Profit | 135.75M | 122.15M | 120.03M | 145.18M | 316.37M | 151.13M |
| EBITDA | 148.92M | 273.31M | 219.97M | 271.56M | 382.94M | 205.50M |
| Net Income | -27.57M | 24.35M | 18.76M | 81.10M | 262.34M | 108.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.24B | 1.17B | 1.04B | 927.10M | 794.78M | 547.25M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.09M | 25.81M | 41.20M | 60.86M | 50.83M | 11.85M |
| Total Debt | 462.11M | 367.83M | 205.00M | 110.00M | 0.00 | 51.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 675.20M | 562.31M | 401.13M | 255.46M | 130.53M | 72.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 562.37M | 605.76M | 635.35M | 671.64M | 664.25M | 474.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -76.25M | -122.84M | -71.26M | -56.33M | 111.70M | -38.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 256.21M | 296.41M | 275.73M | 302.87M | 346.39M | 181.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -339.96M | -409.81M | -310.77M | -356.68M | -230.56M | -186.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 124.10M | 118.82M | 33.72M | 13.41M | -76.85M | 8.49M |
Granite Ridge Resources Technical Analysis
Negative
5.04
Price Trends
4.83
Negative
4.77
Negative
4.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Positive
38.29
Neutral
29.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRNT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.76, above the 50-day MA of 4.83, and above the 200-day MA of 4.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRNT.
Granite Ridge Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $504.97M | 6.07 | 16.02% | 5.10% | 29.58% | 10.28% | |
72 Outperform | $934.67M | 7.67 | 19.88% | 3.73% | 23.16% | 21.24% | |
66 Neutral | $710.30M | -54.70 | -1.82% | 11.00% | 8.52% | -129.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $1.39B | -15.83 | -3.45% | ― | -5.91% | -114.75% | |
61 Neutral | $589.59M | -21.48 | -4.68% | 9.76% | 14.60% | -187.70% | |
54 Neutral | $537.36M | -4.93 | 54.96% | 1.11% | 13.75% | 3.54% |
* Energy Sector Average
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
4.51
-0.58
-11.43%
SD
SandRidge Energy
13.72
1.99
16.97%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
42.93
17.07
66.00%
WTI
W&T Offshore
3.60
1.47
68.93%
GFR
Greenfire Resources
5.99
2.32
63.26%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
17.05
-4.25
-19.95%
Granite Ridge Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Granite Ridge Resources Shifts to Independent Governance Structure
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources announced that affiliates of Grey Rock Investment Partners distributed 14,000,000 shares of Granite Ridge common stock in kind to limited partners of several Grey Rock energy funds, under an existing res...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Granite Ridge Resources Reports Q2 Results, Declares Dividend
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc., a Dallas-based independent oil and gas producer, reported second-quarter 2026 daily output of 32,044 barrels of oil equivalent, up 1% year-over-year, with oil representing 51% of volumes. The company continued to inv...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.