Radian Group Inc (RDN)
NYSE:RDN
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Radian Group
(NYSE:RDN)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$40.00
▲(13.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong profitability and improving leverage) and an attractive valuation (low P/E with a meaningful dividend). The latest earnings call supports the outlook through planned capital returns and deleveraging steps, while the main constraint is mixed technical momentum and the financial risk signal from historical cash-flow volatility.
Positive Factors
Strategic diversification via Inigo acquisition
Acquiring Inigo materially diversifies Radian beyond mortgage insurance into global specialty insurance, reducing concentration risk. The purchase adds underwriting capabilities, fee diversification and cross‑sell potential, creating a more balanced portfolio that supports durable earnings across insurance cycles.
Negative Factors
Volatile operating and free cash flow
Material cash-flow volatility driven by reserve timing and working-capital swings reduces predictability of internal capital for dividends, buybacks and reinvestment. Persistent volatility can force reliance on external funding in stress periods and complicates multi-quarter capital planning.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic diversification via Inigo acquisition
Acquiring Inigo materially diversifies Radian beyond mortgage insurance into global specialty insurance, reducing concentration risk. The purchase adds underwriting capabilities, fee diversification and cross‑sell potential, creating a more balanced portfolio that supports durable earnings across insurance cycles.
Read all positive factors
Radian Group (RDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.49B
Dividend Yield2.78%
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.2
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth7.69%
EPS Growth3.24%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.13
Shares Outstanding132,975,190
10 Day Avg. Volume1,325,875
30 Day Avg. Volume1,296,751
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio14.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.50Price Target Upside22.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.26B
Radian Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Radian Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage and real estate services business in the United States. Its Mortgage segment offers credit-related insurance coverage primarily through private mortgage insurance on reside...
How the Company Makes Money
Radian primarily makes money from its mortgage insurance business. (1) Insurance premiums: Radian earns premiums by insuring portions of residential mortgage credit risk for lenders and investors. For each insured loan, Radian receives premium rev...
Radian Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operating and financial outcomes — notably the successful acquisition of Inigo, substantial consolidated revenue growth (+58% YoY), higher adjusted EPS (+22% YoY), improved return on equity (+130 bps), book value growth (+10% YoY), robust mortgage portfolio metrics, and immediate capital returns (share repurchases and dividends). Challenges discussed were generally manageable and expected given the acquisition and market cycle: partial-period contribution from Inigo, a softening pricing environment in some specialty lines, some GAAP one-time impacts, rising claim severity trends to monitor, and short-term liquidity/leverage items (revolver outstanding and a 2027 debt maturity). Overall, positives and strategic advances materially outweigh the manageable risks and near-term items, supporting a constructive outlook for the combined company.Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisition of Inigo Completed
Closed acquisition of Inigo in early February for ~$1.7 billion, adding a complementary global specialty insurance franchise and providing immediate diversification across Mortgage and Specialty insurance businesses; Inigo contributed two months of results in Q1 and management described performance as consistent with expectations.
Negative Updates
Inigo Contribution Was Only Partial-Quarter
Inigo's results included only two months (Feb–Mar) in the quarter, limiting the baseline for full-quarter performance comparisons and leaving some uncertainty around full-year cadence and seasonality.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Acquisition of Inigo Completed
Closed acquisition of Inigo in early February for ~$1.7 billion, adding a complementary global specialty insurance franchise and providing immediate diversification across Mortgage and Specialty insurance businesses; Inigo contributed two months of results in Q1 and management described performance as consistent with expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Radian's guidance focused on capital deployment and liquidity: management expects at least $600 million of dividends from Radian Guaranty to Radian Group in 2026 (including the $140 million already paid in Q1), expects to repay the $150 million outstanding on the $200 million revolver and retire that borrowing in full during 2026, and projects holding‑company leverage of 20.2% at quarter end falling to below 20% by year‑end 2026 with holding‑company liquidity of $391 million; they estimate $200–$250 million of excess capital could be available for opportunistic share repurchases for the full year (having repurchased $115 million / 3.3 million shares through April, including $50 million / 1.5 million shares in Q1), paid a $35 million shareholder dividend in Q1, maintain a $1.6 billion PMIERs cushion, expect to complete divestitures by end‑Q3 (entities held for sale now carry $61 million after returning $108 million since the program began), and currently plan to refinance the roughly $450 million senior note due March 2027.Radian Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40B | 1.25B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.19B | 1.33B |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 1.15B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.42B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 841.32M | 872.38M | 953.78M | 946.10M | 1.11B | 924.76M |
| Net Income | 562.33M | 582.80M | 604.44M | 603.12M | 742.93M | 600.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.30B | 8.12B | 8.66B | 7.59B | 7.06B | 7.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 87.98M | 5.90B | 5.64B | 5.87B | 5.48B | 6.22B |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 1.13B | 2.34B | 1.58B | 1.57B | 1.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.49B | 3.34B | 4.04B | 3.20B | 3.14B | 3.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.81B | 4.78B | 4.62B | 4.40B | 3.92B | 4.26B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 333.33M | 336.58M | -666.75M | 513.15M | 370.63M | 544.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 337.07M | 340.79M | -663.57M | 529.43M | 388.30M | 557.11M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -159.58M | 231.77M | 327.75M | -300.84M | -5.17M | -1.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -111.34M | -568.44M | 357.23M | -265.09M | -479.18M | -496.78M |
Radian Group Technical Analysis
Negative
35.37
Price Trends
35.03
Negative
33.99
Negative
34.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.52
Positive
37.79
Neutral
10.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.68, above the 50-day MA of 35.03, and above the 200-day MA of 34.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RDN.
Radian Group Risk Analysis
Radian Group disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Radian Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Radian Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $5.29B | 7.85 | 12.01% | 1.88% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
80 Outperform | $5.83B | 8.75 | 12.74% | 2.02% | 1.98% | 3.55% | |
76 Outperform | $5.40B | 7.68 | 14.00% | 1.89% | -1.24% | 4.62% | |
76 Outperform | $2.78B | 7.22 | 0.06% | ― | 7.29% | 6.16% | |
72 Outperform | $4.49B | 8.23 | 12.01% | 2.78% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $3.35B | 8.27 | 7.38% | 1.50% | 2.70% | 3.06% |
* Financial Sector Average
RDN
Radian Group
33.80
1.37
4.22%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
75.57
-6.95
-8.42%
MTG
MGIC Investment
25.51
0.04
0.14%
ESNT
Essent Group
57.44
1.17
2.09%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
36.55
-2.70
-6.88%
ACT
Enact Holdings
41.79
8.28
24.70%
Radian Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Radian Stockholders Approve 2026 Equity and Governance Changes
Positive
May 27, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Radian stockholders approved the 2026 Equity Compensation Plan and the board’s Compensation and Human Capital Management Committee granted 2026 long-term incentive awards to executive officers, heavily weighted toward perfor...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Succession
Positive
May 22, 2026
Radian Group Inc. has initiated a planned leadership transition, appointing veteran mortgage and consumer lending executive Michael Weinbach as CEO-elect effective June 1, 2026, with his promotion to chief executive officer and board member set fo...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Announces Retirement of Chief Digital Officer
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
Radian Group Inc. reported that Eric R. Ray, its Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Digital Officer, notified the company on April 20, 2026, of his decision to retire. His retirement from both the role and the company will be effective July...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Radian Group Amends Mortgage Loan Repurchase Facility Terms
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
On April 30, 2025, Radian Mortgage Capital LLC entered into a Master Repurchase Agreement with Everbank Bank, N.A. to finance its acquisition of residential mortgage loans and related assets, supported by a guaranty from parent Radian Group Inc. T...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Radian Highlights Inigo Reporting Plans After Lloyd’s Accounts
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Lloyd’s published the 2025 annual accounts for its participating syndicates, including Syndicate 1301, which is the platform through which Radian’s newly acquired unit Inigo writes insurance and reinsurance business....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.