Want to see RDN full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Radian Group
(NYSE:RDN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$42.00
▲(8.58% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high profitability, improved leverage, and strong recent cash generation) and attractive valuation (low P/E with a dividend). Offsetting factors are mixed technical momentum and earnings-call risks centered on specialty underwriting margin compression and reserving/event-driven volatility.
Positive Factors
Mortgage insurance scale and credit quality
The large, persistent insurance portfolio supports recurring premium revenue, while favorable cure trends and defaults below cures indicate disciplined underwriting and resilient credit performance.
Negative Factors
Specialty underwriting margin compression
A sustained move to low-90s combined ratios would reduce specialty underwriting profitability and could temper earnings growth. The pressure reflects softer market conditions and makes expansion benefits more dependent on pricing and risk selection.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Mortgage insurance scale and credit quality
The large, persistent insurance portfolio supports recurring premium revenue, while favorable cure trends and defaults below cures indicate disciplined underwriting and resilient credit performance.
Read all positive factors
Radian Group (RDN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.93B
Dividend Yield2.74%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.4
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth27.93%
EPS Growth-2.18%
CountryUS
Employees900
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.96
Shares Outstanding132,301,320
10 Day Avg. Volume1,637,149
30 Day Avg. Volume1,359,577
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.55
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)3.98
P/FCF Ratio42.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.80Price Target Upside13.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.13B
Radian Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating across the United States, Radian Group Inc. and its various subsidiaries are key players in the mortgage and real estate services sector. Through its Mortgage segment, the company delivers crucial credit-related insurance, predominantly ...
How the Company Makes Money
Radian primarily makes money from its mortgage insurance business. (1) Insurance premiums: Radian earns premiums by insuring portions of residential mortgage credit risk for lenders and investors. For each insured loan, Radian receives premium rev...
Radian Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive picture driven by the successful integration of the specialty acquisition, substantial revenue and premium growth (+93% revenue, +116% net earned premiums), strong mortgage insurance fundamentals (record $284B in-force, improved persistency and favorable cure trends), rising investment income, solid capital generation and active capital returns (repurchases and dividends). Near-term challenges center on a softening specialty market, elevated combined ratios influenced by a ~ $30M Middle East reserve and expected margin compression (combined ratios drifting from mid/high‑80s to low‑90s), plus seasonal and transaction-related expense items. On balance, the operational and capital positives — including upgraded dividend guidance from Rating Guaranty to at least $650M and aggressive buybacks — materially outweigh the headwinds, though volatility in specialty underwriting and reserving warrants monitoring.Positive Updates
Major Revenue and Premium Growth Driven by Acquisition
Total revenues increased 93% year-over-year to $575 million; net earned premiums increased 116% year-over-year to $504 million, reflecting the contribution from the acquired specialty business (Inigo/Intego).
Negative Updates
Specialty Combined Ratio Elevated and Market Softening
Specialty segment combined ratio was 98% in Q2 (includes reserving items); first-half specialty combined ratio was 93% with management saying absent the Middle East reserving the first half would be in the high 80s. Management expects market softness to push combined ratios to the low 90s for the near term, indicating margin compression from prior mid-/high-80s levels.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Major Revenue and Premium Growth Driven by Acquisition
Total revenues increased 93% year-over-year to $575 million; net earned premiums increased 116% year-over-year to $504 million, reflecting the contribution from the acquired specialty business (Inigo/Intego).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights: Radian expects Specialty earned premiums in H2 2026 to be about 20% higher than H1, and it now views Specialty combined ratios in the low‑90s (versus mid‑/high‑80s absent the Middle East reserve); the company raised expected 2026 dividends from Radian Guaranty to at least $650 million (including $340M paid through H1 and a $200M Q2 dividend), reiterated full‑year share repurchases of $200–250M (having repurchased $176M YTD — $76M in Q2 and $50M in Q3‑to‑date), expects to repay the $75M revolver draw in 2026 and to refinance a 2027 debt at similar size, and finished Q2 with $412M holding‑company liquidity and a $1.5B PMIERs cushion; other relevant Q2 metrics noted on the call included total revenues $575M, net premiums earned $504M (Specialty NPE $267M), investment portfolio $7.1B with $75M net investment income, Mortgage Insurance new insurance written $16.3B and in‑force $284B with 82% persistency and a 2.47% portfolio default rate, and a roughly $30M reserve related to Middle East developments.Radian Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.65B | 1.25B | 1.29B | 1.24B | 1.19B | 1.33B |
| Gross Profit | 1.31B | 1.15B | 1.23B | 1.22B | 1.42B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 796.55M | 872.38M | 953.78M | 946.10M | 1.11B | 924.76M |
| Net Income | 536.45M | 582.80M | 604.44M | 603.12M | 742.93M | 600.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.66B | 8.12B | 8.66B | 7.59B | 7.06B | 7.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 119.05M | 5.90B | 5.64B | 5.87B | 5.48B | 6.22B |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.13B | 2.34B | 1.58B | 1.57B | 1.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.85B | 3.34B | 4.04B | 3.20B | 3.14B | 3.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.81B | 4.78B | 4.62B | 4.40B | 3.92B | 4.26B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.67B | 115.66M | -666.75M | 513.15M | 370.63M | 544.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.68B | 119.86M | -663.57M | 529.43M | 388.30M | 557.11M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -415.30M | 127.29M | 327.75M | -300.84M | -5.17M | -1.86M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.08B | -243.10M | 357.23M | -265.09M | -479.18M | -496.78M |
Radian Group Technical Analysis
Positive
38.68
Price Trends
37.09
Positive
36.04
Positive
34.95
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
47.11
Neutral
25.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.14, above the 50-day MA of 37.09, and above the 200-day MA of 34.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RDN.
Radian Group Risk Analysis
Radian Group disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Radian Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Radian Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $6.25B | 9.62 | 11.91% | 2.01% | 4.47% | 4.26% | |
84 Outperform | $6.87B | 10.47 | 12.76% | 1.86% | 2.49% | 7.73% | |
82 Outperform | $3.44B | 8.84 | 15.14% | ― | 7.53% | 7.71% | |
81 Outperform | $6.39B | 9.71 | 13.90% | 2.02% | -1.88% | 4.83% | |
74 Outperform | $4.93B | 9.41 | 11.26% | 2.64% | 27.93% | -2.18% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $3.38B | 10.45 | 6.26% | 1.69% | 3.00% | -17.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
RDN
Radian Group
37.26
3.89
11.65%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
76.79
-2.23
-2.83%
MTG
MGIC Investment
31.16
4.50
16.88%
ESNT
Essent Group
69.57
9.35
15.53%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
45.71
7.04
18.21%
ACT
Enact Holdings
49.94
13.26
36.14%
Radian Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Adds Barry McCarthy to Board
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
Radian Group Inc., a global multi-line specialty insurer, provides risk management solutions that help businesses navigate complex exposures with confidence. The company leverages disciplined risk management, proprietary analytics and a collaborat...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Radian Stockholders Approve 2026 Equity and Governance Changes
Positive
May 27, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Radian stockholders approved the 2026 Equity Compensation Plan and the board’s Compensation and Human Capital Management Committee granted 2026 long-term incentive awards to executive officers, heavily weighted toward perfor...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Radian Group Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Succession
Positive
May 22, 2026
Radian Group Inc. has initiated a planned leadership transition, appointing veteran mortgage and consumer lending executive Michael Weinbach as CEO-elect effective June 1, 2026, with his promotion to chief executive officer and board member set fo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.