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Assured Guaranty
(NYSE:AGO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$81.00
▼(-5.11% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/08/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial strength (high profitability and manageable leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below major moving averages and bearish momentum) and financial/cash-flow volatility, while the latest earnings call was net positive but flagged capital-allocation and exposure-related risks.
Positive Factors
High profitability
Sustained high margins (~40% TTM) give Assured room to build capital, absorb credit shocks and fund underwriting. Durable profitability supports returns on equity, enables reinvestment into alternative assets and cushions underwriting cycles over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cash-flow volatility
Historic swings in operating and free cash flow weaken predictability of internally generated capital. Large negative OCF/FCF in 2021–22 followed by uneven recovery means the company may intermittently need external funding or restrict capital returns during stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability
Sustained high margins (~40% TTM) give Assured room to build capital, absorb credit shocks and fund underwriting. Durable profitability supports returns on equity, enables reinvestment into alternative assets and cushions underwriting cycles over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Assured Guaranty (AGO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.31B
Dividend Yield1.99%
Average Volume (3M)337.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth3.00%
EPS Growth-17.74%
CountryUS
Employees367
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.35
Shares Outstanding43,979,210
10 Day Avg. Volume453,220
30 Day Avg. Volume337,060
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)5.58
P/FCF Ratio16.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$88.50Price Target Upside3.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)7.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$887.71M
Assured Guaranty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is a Bermuda-domiciled holding company whose primary operating subsidiaries provide financial guarantee insurance. The company is best known for municipal bond insurance in the U.S. and also insures other public finance...
How the Company Makes Money
Assured Guaranty primarily makes money by writing financial guarantee insurance policies that promise timely payment of principal and interest to investors if an issuer defaults. In exchange, it earns (1) premium revenue: upfront and/or installmen...
Assured Guaranty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line new business growth (PVP +48% year-over-year), record per-share valuation metrics, improved adjusted operating income (+22% per share) and materially lower loss expense, alongside meaningful structured finance momentum and a high inception-to-date IRR (12%) on alternatives. Offsetting items include a $19 million CLO mark loss (quarter-lagged), ongoing Brightline liquidity pressure (adverse economic loss development but currently covered by deferred premium), modest holding company liquidity (~$179M), and the potential for accelerated capital needs to support the annuity reinsurance platform. Overall, positive operational and financial trends substantially outweigh the noted risks, though management will need to manage near-term capital allocation carefully.Positive Updates
Record Valuation Metrics
Reached record highs at quarter end for shareholders' equity metrics: adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share $129.94 and adjusted book value per share $189.72.
Negative Updates
CLO Equity Mark-to-Market Loss
Recorded a $19 million mark-to-market loss on an investment in a CLO equity fund (reported on a one-quarter lag), reflecting volatility in CLO returns and AI-software related market concerns.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Valuation Metrics
Reached record highs at quarter end for shareholders' equity metrics: adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share $129.94 and adjusted book value per share $189.72.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Assured Guaranty guided that demand should continue for its core financial-guarantee products, that its new annuity reinsurance platform (Assured Life Re) is on track to meet the production and income milestones set at launch and that it sees “significant opportunities” for future growth and greater revenue diversification while maintaining disciplined underwriting and prudent pricing; ratings from S&P, KBRA and Moody’s were recently affirmed with stable outlooks. Supporting that guidance, the company reported H1 PVP of $152M (up 48% from $103M in H1 2025), including $106M of U.S. public finance and $35M of global structured finance (vs. $15M LY), and expects ~$42M of PVP from deals already issued/committed in Q3; Q2 adjusted operating income was $55M ($1.23/share, +22% YoY), loss expense fell to $4M from $28M, alternative investments have a ~12% inception‑to‑date IRR (vs. a 3‑yr avg fixed‑maturity yield of 4.3%), adjusted operating shareholders’ equity/share was a record $129.94 and adjusted book value was $189.72, holding‑company liquidity is ~$179M ($60M at AGL), and management is evaluating capital‑structure optimization (including a possible 2026 soft‑capital facility) while continuing share repurchases (554k shares, $45M in Q2 at an avg $80.68) and dividends ($17M returned in Q2).Assured Guaranty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 870.00M | 788.00M | 814.00M | 1.01B | 684.00M | 698.00M |
| Gross Profit | 848.00M | 732.00M | 820.00M | 840.00M | 654.00M | 904.00M |
| EBITDA | 449.00M | 751.00M | 579.00M | 758.00M | 240.00M | 576.00M |
| Net Income | 351.00M | 503.00M | 376.00M | 739.00M | 124.00M | 389.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.64B | 12.18B | 11.90B | 12.54B | 16.84B | 18.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.13B | 2.43B | 2.46B | 8.06B | 8.04B | 9.55B |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.70B | 1.70B | 1.69B | 1.68B | 1.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.06B | 6.39B | 6.35B | 6.77B | 11.55B | 11.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.56B | 5.66B | 5.50B | 5.71B | 5.06B | 6.29B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 324.00M | 259.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.45B | -1.94B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 324.00M | 259.00M | 47.00M | 461.00M | -2.48B | -1.94B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 255.00M | 641.00M | 780.00M | 286.00M | 1.74B | 23.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -569.00M | -616.00M | -983.00M | -670.00M | 612.00M | 1.96B |
Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
Negative
85.36
Price Trends
79.95
Negative
79.36
Negative
82.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.93
Positive
31.54
Neutral
5.50
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 85.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.37, above the 50-day MA of 79.95, and above the 200-day MA of 82.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGO.
Assured Guaranty Risk Analysis
Assured Guaranty disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Assured Guaranty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Assured Guaranty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $6.21B | 9.48 | 11.91% | 2.01% | 4.47% | 4.26% | |
84 Outperform | $6.83B | 10.30 | 12.76% | 1.86% | 2.49% | 7.73% | |
82 Outperform | $3.43B | 8.78 | 15.14% | ― | 7.53% | 7.71% | |
81 Outperform | $6.33B | 9.57 | 13.90% | 2.02% | -1.88% | 4.83% | |
74 Outperform | $4.81B | 9.26 | 11.26% | 2.64% | 27.93% | -2.18% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $3.31B | 10.11 | 6.26% | 1.69% | 3.00% | -17.74% |
* Financial Sector Average
AGO
Assured Guaranty
74.28
-5.14
-6.48%
MTG
MGIC Investment
30.71
3.78
14.02%
RDN
Radian Group
36.66
3.02
8.99%
ESNT
Essent Group
68.53
7.81
12.87%
NMIH
NMI Holdings
45.39
6.16
15.70%
ACT
Enact Holdings
49.12
12.20
33.06%
Assured Guaranty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Assured Guaranty Posts Updated Investor Materials and Disclosures
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
On August 7, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. reported that it had posted new investor materials to the Investor Information section of its website, reflecting results for the period ended June 30, 2026. The release highlighted the availability of Assu...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Assured Guaranty Posts New Q1 2026 Investor Materials
Neutral
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. announced that it had posted new investor materials on its website, including the Assured Guaranty Inc. March 31, 2026 Financial Supplement. The company also made available a Fixed Income Investor Presentation...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.