NMI Holdings (NMIH) AI Stock Analysis

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NMI Holdings

(NASDAQ:NMIH)

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Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:$44.00▲(12.68% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/07/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, steady growth, and a very conservative balance sheet) and attractive valuation (low P/E). These positives are partially offset by weak technicals (trading below key moving averages with low RSI) and some near-term operating risks highlighted on the earnings call (higher claims/defaults and lower sequential earnings), though capital strength and reinsurance coverage help mitigate those risks.

Positive Factors

Strong insured-portfolio growthRecord insurance-in-force and substantial new insurance written indicate durable portfolio expansion and continued lender adoption. A larger, high-quality insured book can broaden recurring premium generation, support operating scale, and strengthen NMIH’s position in the mortgage-insurance market.

Negative Factors

Rising claims and defaultsHigher claims expense and rising defaults can pressure underwriting profitability as the insured portfolio seasons. Even if management attributes some movement to normal patterns, sustained deterioration in delinquencies or claim severity could reduce earnings and require greater capital deployment.

NMI Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Primary Insurance In-ForceTotal outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.

Chart Insights

NMI has converted consistent NIW into a multi-year, record-sized primary insurance‑in‑force balance, reflecting scale gained through disciplined pricing and reinsurance. Management signals growth will be more sideways in 2026 even as they return capital, so the metric’s expansion looks deliberate rather than risky. Still, rising defaults, modestly weaker persistency and lower profit commissions mean investors should watch reserve‑per‑notice, net yield stability and claim trends for signs that credit normalization could constrain margins despite the company’s sizable capital cushion.

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The Fly

NMI Holdings (NMIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.94B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 710.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.5
Beta (1Y): 0.58
Revenue Growth: 6.85%
EPS Growth: 6.19%
Country: US
Employees: 225
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Insurance - Specialty

NMI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NMI Holdings, Inc. is a company operating within the United States that offers private mortgage guaranty insurance. In addition to its core insurance products, the firm also delivers outsourced loan assessment services, specifically catering to mortg...

How the Company Makes Money

NMIH makes money primarily by underwriting and servicing private mortgage insurance policies that cover a portion of losses if an insured residential mortgage defaults. Its core revenue stream is insurance premiums (often referred to as “earned premi...

NMI Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-11.79%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported record insurance-in-force, substantial NIW production, solid profitability, book value growth, successful capital returns, expanded reinsurance coverage through 2030, and a strong PMIERs capital position. The company also highlighted resilient housing demand, attractive long-term growth trends, and stable post-COVID vintage loss ratios. Offsetting factors included lower sequential earnings, higher claims expense, increased defaults, lower persistency, seasonal cure-rate pressure, and continuing macroeconomic and interest-rate risks.

Positive Updates

Strong New Insurance Production and Record Portfolio

National MI generated $13.6 billion of new insurance written (NIW) volume in the third quarter and ended the period with record primary insurance-in-force of $229.7 billion. The company said its insured portfolio continued to grow and described it as high-quality and high-performing.

Negative Updates

Lower Sequential Earnings and Earnings per Share

Adjusted net income declined to $93.7 million from $106 million in the second quarter, while adjusted diluted earnings per share declined to $1.23 from $1.38. Total revenue was also slightly lower than the second quarter at $187.5 million versus $187.9 million.

Company Guidance

Management said a good assumption is that share repurchases will continue to pace roughly in line with where they’ve been; forward-flow reinsurance coverage is in place for all new business produced through 2030 at an estimated 4% pretax cost of capital; post-COVID vintages are in and around that 17% loss ratio, with high teens in line to better than priced expectations; persistency going forward will be dictated by the forward trajectory of rates, while October data showed it had stabilized; and fourth-quarter expenses tend to have higher accruals in years of strong performance associated with employee comps.

NMI Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is strong: exceptionally high profitability and steady multi-year revenue growth, backed by a conservative balance sheet with zero total debt in TTM. Cash-flow conversion is healthy, but the score is tempered by softer TTM margins and sharply negative TTM free-cash-flow growth, which signal some near-term pressure despite solid fundamentals.

Income Statement

86Very Positive

Balance Sheet

90Very Positive

Cash Flow

78Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	739.39M	705.58M	650.97M	579.00M	524.46M	485.64M
Gross Profit	668.44M	647.93M	618.70M	555.61M	526.96M	470.82M
EBITDA	541.80M	539.54M	512.24M	456.46M	421.34M	339.75M
Net Income	392.81M	388.93M	360.11M	322.11M	292.90M	231.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.00B	3.84B	3.35B	2.94B	2.52B	2.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.33M	448.37M	54.22M	95.35M	42.25M	2.16B
Total Debt	0	417.03M	415.15M	397.60M	396.05M	394.62M
Total Liabilities	1.30B	1.25B	1.13B	1.01B	902.30M	884.79M
Stockholders Equity	2.70B	2.59B	2.22B	1.93B	1.61B	1.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	424.25M	412.52M	386.70M	333.31M	302.82M	313.48M
Operating Cash Flow	431.41M	419.30M	393.60M	342.68M	313.39M	325.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-358.80M	-316.47M	-339.29M	-200.00M	-289.79M	-374.18M
Financing Cash Flow	-130.72M	-113.20M	-96.70M	-90.42M	-55.83M	-1.83M

NMI Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price39.05

Price Trends

50DMA41.69Negative

100DMA42.41Negative

200DMA40.37Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.38Positive

RSI38.22Neutral

STOCH26.29Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMIH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.61, below the 50-day MA of 41.69, and below the 200-day MA of 40.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NMIH.

NMI Holdings Risk Analysis

NMI Holdings disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NMI Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

NMI Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

NMIH against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESNT	81Outperform	$5.69B	8.78	11.99%	2.10%	9.83%	6.24%
MTG	81Outperform	$5.60B	8.60	13.80%	2.30%	-2.16%	3.58%
NMIH	78Outperform	$2.89B	7.54	14.78%	―	6.85%	6.19%
ACT	78Outperform	$6.21B	9.58	12.75%	1.95%	2.45%	10.11%
RDN	75Outperform	$4.65B	8.97	11.73%	2.74%	56.63%	1.91%
FAF	72Outperform	$6.91B	9.40	13.33%	3.37%	14.14%	52.69%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NMIH and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
NMIH	NMI Holdings Inc	39.05	1.47	3.91%
FAF	First American	66.97	5.39	8.76%
MTG	MGIC Investment Corp	27.87	0.13	0.48%
RDN	Radian Group Inc	37.24	3.00	8.75%
ESNT	Essent Group Ltd	64.82	4.75	7.91%
ACT	Enact Holdings Inc	46.16	9.24	25.04%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026

NMI Holdings AI Stock Analysis