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NMI Holdings
(NASDAQ:NMIH)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(16.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, healthy ROE, and strong cash conversion) and a positive earnings-call outlook highlighting record operating results, robust capital, and continued buybacks. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E. Technicals are constructive given the price above key moving averages, while the score is modestly tempered by TTM metric consistency concerns and manageable credit/default normalization risks discussed on the call.
Positive Factors
Profitability & ROE
Sustained high profitability and mid-to-high-teens ROE indicate the core mortgage-insurance underwriting model converts premiums and investment income into durable returns. Persistent strong margins provide internal capital for reserves, growth, and shareholder returns over multi-quarter horizons.
Negative Factors
Default risk seasonality
Mortgage insurers face cyclical default exposure; seasonal upticks in defaults can raise claims and pressure loss reserves and margins over several quarters. Even with proactive pricing and reinsurance, higher defaults compress underwriting economics and may slow NIW or capital return plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability & ROE
Sustained high profitability and mid-to-high-teens ROE indicate the core mortgage-insurance underwriting model converts premiums and investment income into durable returns. Persistent strong margins provide internal capital for reserves, growth, and shareholder returns over multi-quarter horizons.
Read all positive factors
NMI Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Primary Insurance In-Force
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
Total outstanding mortgage insurance coverage the company currently guarantees. Size and trends in in-force reflect the scale of future premium income and the company’s exposure to borrower defaults—growing in-force suggests expansion, while declines signal shrinking business or tighter underwriting.
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The Fly
The FlyNMI Holdings (NMIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)579.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth7.53%
EPS Growth7.71%
CountryUS
Employees225
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.17
Shares Outstanding75,971,890
10 Day Avg. Volume474,053
30 Day Avg. Volume579,596
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.73
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)4.49
P/FCF Ratio7.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$49.17Price Target Upside15.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)5.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$628.95M
NMI Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NMI Holdings, Inc. is a company operating within the United States that offers private mortgage guaranty insurance. In addition to its core insurance products, the firm also delivers outsourced loan assessment services, specifically catering to mo...
How the Company Makes Money
NMIH primarily makes money through its private mortgage insurance business. Its core revenue stream is net earned premiums: NMIC writes mortgage insurance policies (generally on a monthly premium basis) that protect lenders/investors against borro...
NMI Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported multiple record operational and financial achievements — including record revenue, adjusted net income, NIW, and insurance in force — alongside improving expense efficiency, strong investment income, robust capital metrics, and continued buybacks. The primary negatives were modest: a small decline in 12-month persistency, expected seasonal increases in defaults later in the year, and localized housing pressure in some markets. Management emphasized proactive risk management (pricing, selection, reinsurance) and balance-sheet strength, signaling confidence in their runway. Overall, positive operational momentum and strong capital positions materially outweigh the manageable headwinds mentioned.Positive Updates
Record revenue and profitability
Total revenue was a record $187.9 million (up 2.4% vs Q1 and up 8.1% YoY). Adjusted net income was a record $106.0 million, or $1.38 per diluted share (up 7% vs Q1 and up 10% YoY). Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.38 (up 8% vs Q1 and up 14% YoY). Return on equity was 15.9%.
Negative Updates
Slight decline in 12-month persistency
12-month persistency slipped to 81.4% in Q2 from 82.2% in Q1 (down 0.8 percentage points), indicating a modest deterioration in renewal retention.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record revenue and profitability
Total revenue was a record $187.9 million (up 2.4% vs Q1 and up 8.1% YoY). Adjusted net income was a record $106.0 million, or $1.38 per diluted share (up 7% vs Q1 and up 10% YoY). Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.38 (up 8% vs Q1 and up 14% YoY). Return on equity was 15.9%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated forward-looking confidence while emphasizing a prudent, proactive stance on pricing, risk selection and reinsurance and expecting continued outperformance, citing Q2 metrics: $16.0 billion NIW, $227.1 billion primary insurance in force (>$500 billion insurance ever written), ~2.2 million borrowers helped, ~1,700 lenders served, total revenue $187.9 million, net premiums earned $157.5 million, adjusted net income $106.0 million ($1.38 adjusted diluted EPS), 15.9% ROE, net yield 28 bps and core yield 34 bps, investment income $30.3 million, underwriting & operating expenses $30.5 million (expense ratio 19.4%), 8,020 defaults (default rate 1.16%), claims $13.1 million, shareholders’ equity $2.7 billion, book value per share $35.89 ($36.88 ex‑unrealized gains, +4% q/q, +15% y/y), $31.4 million repurchased in the quarter (827k shares at $37.99) with $408 million repurchased since 2022 (13.6M shares, avg $29.95) and $167 million repurchase capacity remaining, and PMIERs available assets $3.7 billion vs. required $2.1 billion (excess $1.6 billion); they noted defaults may trend modestly higher seasonally into Q3/Q4 and see an attractive sustained new‑business opportunity, with no near‑term material impact expected from recent housing legislation.NMI Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 730.52M | 705.58M | 650.97M | 579.00M | 524.46M | 485.64M |
| Gross Profit | 656.82M | 647.93M | 618.70M | 555.61M | 526.96M | 470.82M |
| EBITDA | 543.22M | 539.54M | 512.24M | 456.46M | 421.34M | 339.75M |
| Net Income | 395.33M | 388.93M | 360.11M | 322.11M | 292.90M | 231.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.00B | 3.84B | 3.35B | 2.94B | 2.52B | 2.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 72.12M | 448.37M | 54.22M | 95.35M | 42.25M | 2.16B |
| Total Debt | 418.02M | 417.03M | 415.15M | 397.60M | 396.05M | 394.62M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.29B | 1.25B | 1.13B | 1.01B | 902.30M | 884.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.71B | 2.59B | 2.22B | 1.93B | 1.61B | 1.57B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 445.09M | 412.52M | 386.70M | 333.31M | 302.82M | 313.48M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 448.51M | 419.30M | 393.60M | 342.68M | 313.39M | 325.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -331.03M | -316.47M | -339.29M | -200.00M | -289.79M | -374.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -129.37M | -113.20M | -96.70M | -90.42M | -55.83M | -1.83M |
NMI Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
42.75
Price Trends
39.83
Positive
39.09
Positive
38.85
Positive
Market Momentum
1.21
Negative
68.05
Neutral
60.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NMIH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.59, above the 50-day MA of 39.83, and above the 200-day MA of 38.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NMIH.
NMI Holdings Risk Analysis
NMI Holdings disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NMI Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NMI Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | $6.08B | 9.30 | 12.01% | 2.01% | 1.34% | 2.64% | |
82 Outperform | $3.37B | 8.57 | 0.03% | ― | 7.53% | 7.71% | |
81 Outperform | $6.16B | 9.36 | 13.90% | 2.02% | -1.88% | 4.83% | |
80 Outperform | $6.61B | 10.20 | 12.74% | 1.86% | 1.98% | 3.55% | |
72 Outperform | $5.18B | 9.44 | 12.01% | 2.64% | 7.69% | 3.24% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $3.66B | 9.65 | 7.38% | 1.69% | 2.70% | 3.06% |
* Financial Sector Average
NMIH
NMI Holdings
44.94
6.65
17.37%
AGO
Assured Guaranty
82.74
-1.94
-2.29%
MTG
MGIC Investment
30.59
4.30
16.36%
RDN
Radian Group
39.17
6.68
20.56%
ESNT
Essent Group
66.51
9.92
17.53%
ACT
Enact Holdings
47.83
12.41
35.04%
NMI Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NMI Holdings Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 15, 2026
NMI Holdings held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2026, with 90.64% of the 76.2 million eligible shares represented, and shareholders elected all nominated directors, including Executive Chairman Bradley M. Shuster and Chief Executiv...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.