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Qantas Airways (QABSY) AI Stock Analysis
Qantas Airways
(Other OTC:QABSY)
The overall score reflects solid post‑pandemic financial improvement and a cleaner balance sheet alongside weaker recent margins and free cash flow, combined with an appealing valuation and broadly positive medium‑term guidance, while technicals indicate only mildly negative, range‑bound momentum rather than a clear directional trend.
Qantas Airways (QABSY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $9.30B
- Dividend Yield
- 4.54%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 32.05K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 10.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.87
- Revenue Growth
- 12.70%
- EPS Growth
- -16.43%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 32,000
- Sector
- Industrials
- Sector Strength
- 63
- Industry
- Airlines, Airports & Air Services
Qantas Airways Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Qantas Airways Limited provides aviation services, facilitating air travel both within Australia and across international routes. The company structures its operations across several key divisions: Qantas Domestic, Qantas International, the Jetstar G...
How the Company Makes Money
Qantas makes money primarily by selling air transportation and related services across passenger travel, cargo, and loyalty activities. Passenger revenue is generated from fares on domestic and international flights operated under the Qantas and Jets...
Qantas Airways Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a broadly positive picture: the group delivered strong cash flow, maintained a sustainable base dividend, progressed a material fleet renewal that is expected to unlock meaningful medium‑term earnings upside (including a Project Sunrise $400m uplift and A380 retirement benefits), and achieved record customer and loyalty metrics. These positives were tempered by near‑term headwinds — a $420m Middle East fuel impact, higher fuel and industry costs, EPS and underlying PBT declines versus the prior year, paused buyback and one‑off charges — and expected entry‑into‑service costs as new aircraft come online. On balance, management emphasized resilience, disciplined capital allocation and confidence in medium‑term margin improvement driven by fleet renewal and transformation savings.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to move to TRASK (total revenue/ASK) and expects group TRASK to rise 8–10% for both Group Domestic and Group International in H1 FY27; forecast H1 fuel expense is ~A$3.6bn assuming market jet fuel A$197/bl with ~85% Brent hedging for H1 and continued participation if prices fall. FY27 capital expenditure is guided to A$4.3–4.6bn (FY26 capex A$4.0bn), with up to 31 aircraft deliveries over the next 12 months; FY26 net debt closed at A$6.2bn (within the A$5.5–6.9bn target range) and group liquidity is over A$13bn. Qantas Loyalty underlying EBIT is expected to grow 5–7% in FY27 and remains on track to A$800m–A$1bn by FY30; Qantas International targets a 10% EBIT margin by FY31 with Project Sunrise driving ~A$400m of uplift by FY31 (entry‑into‑service costs ~A$150m in FY28–29). For context, FY26 underlying PBT was A$2.064bn, underlying EPS A$0.96, operating cash flow A$3.9bn, total FY26 base dividends A$600m (final A$300m) and the previously announced A$150m on‑market buyback has been paused.
Qantas Airways Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong revenue and profit recovery, sharply reduced debt, and rebuilt equity are offset by softer margins in the latest year and weakening, slightly negative free cash flow, indicating an improving but still cyclical and capital‑intensive profile.
Income Statement
74PositiveBalance Sheet
68PositiveCash Flow
57Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.13B | 24.64B | 23.41B | 21.62B | 19.82B | 9.11B |
| Gross Profit | 4.81B | 4.71B | 12.76B | 11.46B | 7.00B | 1.91B |
| EBITDA | 2.88B | 1.85B | 4.64B | 3.84B | 4.52B | 398.88M |
| Net Income | 1.28B | 1.26B | 1.60B | 1.25B | 1.75B | -860.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 27.04B | 27.04B | 23.36B | 20.56B | 20.35B | 19.65B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.27B | 3.27B | 2.36B | 1.98B | 3.25B | 3.98B |
| Total Debt | 10.35B | 10.35B | 7.96B | 6.59B | 6.73B | 7.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.53B | 25.53B | 22.57B | 20.27B | 20.34B | 19.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.50B | 1.50B | 778.00M | 289.00M | 5.00M | -197.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -209.17M | -196.61M | 448.00M | 680.00M | 2.49B | 1.75B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.88B | 3.69B | 4.25B | 3.44B | 5.05B | 2.65B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.96B | -3.76B | -3.81B | -2.89B | -2.59B | -240.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.17B | 1.13B | 42.00M | -2.01B | -2.63B | -1.31B |
Qantas Airways Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For QABSY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 30.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.82, below the 50-day MA of 31.15, and below the 200-day MA of 32.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 98.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for QABSY.
Qantas Airways Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
LTM82Outperform- QABSY71Outperform
DAL70Outperform
UAL63Neutral
LUV59Neutral
AAL41Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LTM | 82Outperform | $11.86B | 7.65 | 98.01% | 3.61% | 20.16% | 39.18% |
| QABSY | 71Outperform | $9.23B | 10.34 | 90.68% | 4.54% | 12.70% | -16.43% |
| DAL | 70Outperform | $52.73B | 15.90 | 15.40% | 1.00% | 14.11% | -29.50% |
| Sector * | 63Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
| UAL | 63Neutral | $33.87B | 9.54 | 21.81% | ― | 12.31% | 9.08% |
| LUV | 59Neutral | $20.77B | 20.11 | 14.39% | 1.70% | 14.49% | 205.66% |
| AAL | 41Neutral | $8.35B | -17.26 | 12.03% | ― | 12.32% | -179.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QABSY | Qantas Airways | 30.92 | -1.47 | -4.55% | |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines Inc. | 80.15 | 22.27 | 38.47% | |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | 42.43 | 12.53 | 41.93% | |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | 104.24 | 8.13 | 8.46% | |
| AAL | American Airlines Group Inc | 12.60 | -0.74 | -5.55% | |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR | 42.38 | -1.90 | -4.29% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 28, 2026