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PROG Holdings
(NYSE:PRG)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$32.00
▼(-19.54% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/08/26
Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals: stable profitability and positive cash flow are offset by weak/negative revenue growth, increased leverage, and sharply lower free cash flow. Technicals are a major drag with the stock in a strong downtrend and bearish momentum, while valuation (low P/E and a dividend) and a constructive earnings call with raised guidance provide meaningful support.
Positive Factors
Diversified growth platforms
Four provides a rapidly scaling growth engine beyond the mature leasing portfolio, with triple-digit GMV and revenue growth plus positive EBITDA. Rising shoppers and user engagement can broaden merchant reach and improve the company’s revenue mix over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated credit losses
Write-offs above the company’s target range directly pressure lease profitability and signal higher customer repayment risk. Management expects the full-year result near the high end of the range, so elevated losses could remain a material earnings constraint through the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified growth platforms
Four provides a rapidly scaling growth engine beyond the mature leasing portfolio, with triple-digit GMV and revenue growth plus positive EBITDA. Rising shoppers and user engagement can broaden merchant reach and improve the company’s revenue mix over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
PROG Holdings (PRG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.23B
Dividend Yield1.78%
Average Volume (3M)635.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth4.52%
EPS Growth-29.04%
CountryUS
Employees1,235
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.67
Shares Outstanding39,831,635
10 Day Avg. Volume696,229
30 Day Avg. Volume635,307
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.38
Price to Book (P/B)1.58
Price to Sales (P/S)0.49
P/FCF Ratio3.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$51.80Price Target Upside30.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.06B
PROG Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
PROG Holdings, Inc. functions as a multi-channel financial services firm, specializing in lease-to-own programs for individuals with limited credit access or those traditionally considered underserved. The company's operations are divided into two...
How the Company Makes Money
PROG Holdings generates revenue primarily by facilitating and servicing consumer payment solutions offered through its brands and merchant partners. A core revenue stream comes from lease-to-own offerings (commonly associated with Progressive Leas...
PROG Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a decidedly positive operational and financial story: consolidated GMV surged 60%, revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat guidance, Four delivered profitable triple-digit growth, Purchasing Power integration produced meaningful margin improvement, and Progressive Leasing returned to GMV growth with strong segment profitability. Offsetting risks include elevated Progressive Leasing write-offs (8.4% in Q2), revenue pressure from a smaller leasing portfolio, and ongoing consumer stress from inflation and gas prices. Management raised full-year guidance while acknowledging macro sensitivities and maintaining discipline on portfolio decisioning.Positive Updates
Strong Consolidated Financial Performance
Consolidated GMV grew 60% year-over-year to $902M and consolidated revenue rose 22.3% YoY to ~$720M. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $88.4M (12.3% margin) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.19, both above the high end of prior outlook.
Negative Updates
Elevated Lease Merchandise Write-Offs
Progressive Leasing lease merchandise write-offs were 8.4% of segment revenue in Q2, above the company's 6%–8% annual target range (company expects full-year near the high end). Management cited seasonal factors and consumer cost pressures (e.g., gas) as contributors.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Consolidated Financial Performance
Consolidated GMV grew 60% year-over-year to $902M and consolidated revenue rose 22.3% YoY to ~$720M. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $88.4M (12.3% margin) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.19, both above the high end of prior outlook.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
PROG raised its 2026 continuing‑operations outlook to revenues of $3.025–3.100 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $355–375 million and adjusted non‑GAAP EPS of $4.75–5.00 (assumes ~26% non‑GAAP effective tax rate, no material change in decisioning posture, no meaningful rise in unemployment and no impact from additional repurchases), and reiterated that Progressive Leasing write‑offs are expected to land in its long‑held 6%–8% annual range (near the high end). The company said consolidated GMV momentum should continue, ended Q2 with $85.2 million of unrestricted cash and $435.2 million total liquidity, $600 million of recourse debt (net leverage 1.7x vs. a 1.5–2.0x target after paying down $260M since the acquisition), resumed buybacks (280,000 shares at an average $36.34) and continues a $0.14 per‑share quarterly dividend.PROG Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.52B | 2.41B | 2.46B | 2.41B | 2.60B | 2.68B |
| Gross Profit | 939.65M | 794.53M | 2.46B | 831.96M | 840.10M | 857.91M |
| EBITDA | 1.79B | 637.00M | 1.85B | 1.83B | 1.98B | 2.31B |
| Net Income | 146.67M | 146.79M | 197.25M | 138.84M | 98.71M | 243.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.05B | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.49B | 1.49B | 1.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.20M | 308.77M | 95.66M | 155.42M | 131.88M | 170.16M |
| Total Debt | 887.06M | 609.39M | 655.06M | 608.11M | 612.09M | 615.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.24B | 863.99M | 863.49M | 899.92M | 921.45M | 942.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 805.34M | 746.42M | 650.28M | 591.33M | 570.46M | 679.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 172.42M | 324.92M | 130.21M | 194.62M | 232.81M | 236.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 186.76M | 334.96M | 138.53M | 204.24M | 242.48M | 245.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -372.78M | 6.64M | -79.17M | -38.83M | -53.53M | -82.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -89.00M | -128.49M | -119.12M | -141.87M | -227.22M | -30.28M |
PROG Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
39.77
Price Trends
37.75
Negative
39.04
Negative
35.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.09
Negative
28.63
Positive
37.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.20, above the 50-day MA of 37.75, and above the 200-day MA of 35.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.63 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PRG.
PROG Holdings Risk Analysis
PROG Holdings disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. PROG Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
PROG Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $5.63B | 11.77 | 32.35% | ― | 2.58% | 32.02% | |
67 Neutral | $6.49B | 8.43 | 23.07% | 7.44% | 6.93% | 19.96% | |
64 Neutral | $4.55B | 12.53 | 25.76% | ― | 17.65% | 43.92% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $840.31M | 20.43 | 11.00% | ― | 4.36% | -42.48% | |
60 Neutral | $1.23B | 8.27 | 19.36% | 1.78% | 4.52% | -29.04% |
* Industrials Sector Average
PRG
PROG Holdings
30.90
1.28
4.32%
CACC
Credit Acceptance
542.82
64.12
13.39%
WRLD
World Acceptance
180.20
15.21
9.22%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
56.42
7.87
16.20%
ENVA
Enova International
182.59
78.58
75.55%
PROG Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
PROG Holdings Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, PROG Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share of common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on September 3, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the clos...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
PROG Holdings Raises 2026 Outlook After Strong Quarter
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
PROG Holdings reported strong financial performance for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, with consolidated revenues from continuing operations rising 22.3% to $719.7 million and total GMV climbing 60.1% to $902.0 million. Growth was driven ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.