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Custom Truck One Source
(NYSE:CTOS)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(5.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is primarily held back by uneven financial performance—sharp TTM revenue contraction, thin net profitability, historically high leverage, and volatile free cash flow conversion. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call was materially positive with raised 2026 guidance, strong rental KPIs, and a clear deleveraging/FCF plan, while technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages. Valuation is a modest negative due to a negative P/E and no indicated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High rental utilization & fleet scale
Consistently high utilization and record OEC on rent indicate durable demand for CTOS’s rental fleet, driving recurring revenue and strong operating cash flow. A young fleet (average age ~3 years) lowers maintenance and supports higher uptime and yield, improving long-term rental profitability and capital efficiency.
Negative Factors
Historically elevated leverage
Sustained high leverage has constrained financial flexibility, increasing interest burden and vulnerability to cyclical downturns. Although management targets lower net leverage and recent improvement to ~3.85x, the historical leverage track record means deleveraging must be maintained to materially reduce refinancing and liquidity risk over the next 6–12 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High rental utilization & fleet scale
Consistently high utilization and record OEC on rent indicate durable demand for CTOS’s rental fleet, driving recurring revenue and strong operating cash flow. A young fleet (average age ~3 years) lowers maintenance and supports higher uptime and yield, improving long-term rental profitability and capital efficiency.
Read all positive factors
Custom Truck One Source Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCustom Truck One Source (CTOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)784.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)111.2
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth7.03%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding227,505,540
10 Day Avg. Volume748,621
30 Day Avg. Volume784,820
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio-12.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside19.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.12B
Custom Truck One Source Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) specializes in providing comprehensive services for specialty equipment across North America, serving crucial industries such as electric utility (transmission and distribution), telecommunications, rail, and o...
How the Company Makes Money
CTOS generates revenue primarily through three core activities: (1) Equipment rental: CTOS rents out specialty trucks, aerial devices, cranes, material handling, and other vocational equipment to contractors and operators, earning rental fees over...
Custom Truck One Source Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record revenue, sizeable adjusted EBITDA growth, robust SER rental KPIs (utilization, OEC on rent, yield), record STEM quarterly sales, upgraded full-year guidance, and clear deleveraging and cash generation plans. Headwinds were present but largely manageable — a sequential backlog dip from record deliveries, temporary inventory buildup due to strategic prebuys, modest STEM margin pressure from mix, regulatory cost risk from EPA '27 NOx changes, and still-elevated but improving leverage. Overall, positives materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EBITDA Expansion
Revenue of $563 million in Q2 2026, up 10% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $117 million, up 25% year-over-year, reflecting margin and operating leverage improvements.
Negative Updates
Sequential Backlog Decline in Q2
New sales order backlog ended Q2 at $322 million, down $89 million sequentially from Q1 due to record Q2 deliveries (backlog measured at ~3.5 months, slightly below the 4–6 month target).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Strong EBITDA Expansion
Revenue of $563 million in Q2 2026, up 10% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $117 million, up 25% year-over-year, reflecting margin and operating leverage improvements.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to consolidated revenue of $2.1–$2.2 billion (up 8%–13% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $437.5–$455 million (up 14%–19% YoY), with SER revenue now expected at $850–$875 million and STEM revenue at $1.63–$1.70 billion (STEM third‑party new sales growth 3%–10%, overall STEM sales down marginally to up 3%); they plan net rental CapEx of $170–$200 million (vs. >$250 million in 2025) and non‑rental CapEx of $40–$50 million, expect mid‑single‑digit net OEC growth, more than $50 million of levered free cash flow, and to reduce net leverage from 3.85x (net debt $1.66B; LTM adjusted EBITDA >$431M) to meaningfully below 4x by year‑end 2026 and toward 3x in 2027; Q2 rental KPIs included 81.6% utilization, $1.37B average OEC on rent (Q2 end OEC ~ $1.68B), 39.4% on‑rent yield and a fleet age just over 3 years; they expect Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be up year‑over‑year but below Q2, a ~48%/52% H1/H2 split, and Q4 to remain the seasonally strongest quarter.Custom Truck One Source Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.04B | 1.94B | 1.80B | 1.87B | 1.57B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 410.62M | 367.36M | 343.43M | 410.09M | 340.39M | 165.65M |
| EBITDA | 457.68M | 397.67M | 380.66M | 414.78M | 359.12M | 104.84M |
| Net Income | 21.42M | -31.05M | -28.66M | 50.71M | 38.91M | -181.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.60B | 3.74B | 3.50B | 3.37B | 2.94B | 2.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.29M | 6.27M | 3.81M | 10.31M | 14.36M | 35.90M |
| Total Debt | 2.43B | 2.42B | 2.43B | 2.20B | 1.83B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 2.93B | 2.64B | 2.45B | 2.05B | 1.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 815.96M | 809.10M | 861.31M | 917.20M | 888.44M | 858.51M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -109.27M | -107.59M | -353.63M | -511.64M | -358.74M | -31.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 314.00M | 349.39M | 44.68M | -147.45M | -17.95M | 157.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -248.88M | -282.46M | -187.49M | -176.60M | -218.94M | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.14M | -64.55M | 135.58M | 319.44M | 217.82M | 1.30B |
Custom Truck One Source Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.86
Price Trends
10.64
Negative
9.65
Positive
7.98
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
42.05
Neutral
19.84
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTOS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.53, above the 50-day MA of 10.64, and above the 200-day MA of 7.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CTOS.
Custom Truck One Source Risk Analysis
Custom Truck One Source disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Custom Truck One Source reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Custom Truck One Source Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.96B | 19.46 | 12.44% | 1.63% | -0.92% | -39.51% | |
68 Neutral | $10.15B | 21.49 | 16.70% | 1.36% | 1.12% | 3.84% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $1.24B | 25.42 | 12.63% | 0.70% | 15.72% | -28.56% | |
61 Neutral | $2.39B | 111.24 | 2.66% | ― | 7.03% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $5.79B | 113.99 | 2.56% | 1.72% | 28.50% | 67.75% | |
55 Neutral | $4.27B | -63.73 | -7.45% | 1.06% | -2.51% | -162.51% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
9.95
3.92
65.01%
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Custom Truck One Source Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Raises 2026 Outlook After Record Q2
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Custom Truck One Source reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of $563.4 million, up 10.2% year over year, driven by strong transmission and distribution markets and robust performance across both segments. The company also...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Custom Truck One Source Shareholders Reelect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Custom Truck One Source held its annual stockholders meeting, at which shareholders elected three Class A directors, Paul Bader, Mark D. Ein, and David Glatt, to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, reflecting continuity in the c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.