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Willis Lease Finance
(NASDAQ:WLFC)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
â–¼(-26.77% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/01/26
WLFC’s score is primarily held back by financial-quality risk factors—high leverage and persistently negative free cash flow—despite strong margins. Technicals also weigh on the rating given the clear downtrend and negative momentum. Offsetting these are a constructive earnings-call outlook (AUM/WAC growth and added capital flexibility) and generally positive corporate developments, while valuation appears roughly neutral with only modest dividend support.
Positive Factors
AUM Growth
Rapid AUM growth expands the platform’s earning base and demonstrates continued demand for WLFC’s leasing and asset-management capabilities. A larger managed portfolio can support recurring lease income, fees, and operating scale, making growth more durable than relying solely on individual asset sales.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
The debt-heavy capital structure can amplify earnings volatility and reduce flexibility during weaker aviation conditions. Elevated leverage also increases the importance of asset values, lease collections, and refinancing execution, potentially limiting how aggressively WLFC can invest through a downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AUM Growth
Rapid AUM growth expands the platform’s earning base and demonstrates continued demand for WLFC’s leasing and asset-management capabilities. A larger managed portfolio can support recurring lease income, fees, and operating scale, making growth more durable than relying solely on individual asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Willis Lease Finance Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows how much profit each business line contributes—such as aircraft leasing, engine leasing, parts sales, or services—revealing which activities generate healthy margins and which drag on earnings. Helps investors judge the sustainability of profits, where management is allocating capital, and how sensitive earnings are to lease rates, maintenance costs, or asset impairments.
Shows how much profit each business line contributes—such as aircraft leasing, engine leasing, parts sales, or services—revealing which activities generate healthy margins and which drag on earnings. Helps investors judge the sustainability of profits, where management is allocating capital, and how sensitive earnings are to lease rates, maintenance costs, or asset impairments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyWillis Lease Finance (WLFC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$781.49M
Dividend Yield1.36%
Average Volume (3M)206.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)1.30
Revenue Growth15.72%
EPS Growth-28.56%
CountryUS
Employees471
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.30
Shares Outstanding21,144,112
10 Day Avg. Volume234,142
30 Day Avg. Volume206,427
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio135.38
Price to Book (P/B)3.79
Price to Sales (P/S)4.07
P/FCF Ratio-11.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$80.00Price Target Upside46.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)7.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$740.00M
Willis Lease Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Willis Lease Finance Corporation (WLFC) is an international enterprise specializing in the leasing and maintenance of commercial aircraft and their engines. The company operates through two distinct divisions: Leasing and Related Services, and Spa...
How the Company Makes Money
WLFC primarily makes money by leasing aircraft engines (and, where applicable, related aviation assets) to customers under lease agreements. Revenue is generated mainly through (1) lease rental income: recurring payments from lessees for the right...
Willis Lease Finance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational momentum: strong AUM growth (+21%), a nearly 80% expansion in WAC, positive adjusted EBITDA growth (+4%), strategic fund seeding and M&A activity, meaningful liquidity ($1.3B discretionary capital) and a low leverage profile (2.78x). Headwinds included declines in maintenance reserve and parts/equipment sales, modest utilization softness, higher G&A/legal and a refinancing-related loss that increased finance costs. Management emphasized portfolio modernization, growing asset-management fee streams, and notable service wins (Pratt & Whitney) that support the company’s growth trajectory despite some near-term revenue mix headwinds. Overall, positives (scaling AUM, fund momentum, capital flexibility, services wins, and profitable adjusted EBITDA) outweigh the near-term operational and one-time challenges.Positive Updates
Assets Under Management Growth
Total assets under management increased from ~$3.6B in Q2 2025 to ~$4.4B in Q2 2026, a 21% year-over-year increase; assets on balance sheet represent 67% of AUM.
Negative Updates
Decline in Maintenance Reserve Revenues
Maintenance reserve revenues fell to $46.5M from $50.7M year-over-year (down ~8.3%); short-term maintenance reserve revenues declined to $39M from $50.2M (down ~22.3%), driven by lower flight hours on older engine types and mix shift to new-tech engines on long-term leases.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Assets Under Management Growth
Total assets under management increased from ~$3.6B in Q2 2025 to ~$4.4B in Q2 2026, a 21% year-over-year increase; assets on balance sheet represent 67% of AUM.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s forward-looking guidance emphasized continued AUM growth and disciplined capital deployment: AUM rose from about $3.6B in Q2 2025 to $4.4B in Q2 2026 (+21%) with WAC at ~$1.4B (~+80% YoY) and ~67% of AUM on balance sheet; the company has roughly $1.3B of discretionary capital available, undrawn revolver capacity, and low leverage of 2.78x, and issued $200M of 2.5% convertible notes due 2031 (conversion price $89.60, 40% premium) to increase financial flexibility. Management said seeding of funds is largely complete and expects most future fund growth to come from third‑party purchases, a return to balanced growth as the pipeline closes, continuation of a nominal dividend (split‑adjusted $0.133/share declared; prior $0.40 pre‑split), and ongoing M&A activity, while forecasting stronger demand and more frequent off‑wing maintenance for modern engines (LEAP/GTF/GEnx ~60% of portfolio by NBV) and an improvement in maintenance reserve revenues (Q2 totals: $46.5M; short‑term $39M, long‑term $7.5M); additionally, share‑based compensation expense is expected to decline toward ~50% of its 2026 level by 2028.Willis Lease Finance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 762.01M | 675.84M | 569.22M | 418.56M | 311.93M | 274.20M |
| Gross Profit | 455.38M | 444.10M | 429.44M | 291.26M | 202.83M | 168.77M |
| EBITDA | 311.90M | 410.02M | 352.62M | 236.85M | 164.80M | 167.63M |
| Net Income | 91.76M | 113.76M | 108.61M | 43.78M | 5.44M | 3.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.65B | 4.03B | 3.30B | 2.65B | 2.58B | 2.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.72M | 16.44M | 9.11M | 7.07M | 12.15M | 14.33M |
| Total Debt | 2.32B | 2.71B | 2.26B | 1.80B | 1.85B | 1.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.88B | 3.31B | 2.75B | 2.21B | 2.17B | 2.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 772.14M | 725.54M | 549.34M | 438.96M | 404.69M | 375.88M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -111.36M | -241.34M | -546.07M | 60.96M | -148.60M | -117.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 272.24M | 283.24M | 284.41M | 229.74M | 144.42M | 90.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -332.38M | -256.40M | -764.91M | -92.78M | -194.38M | -148.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -550.18M | 387.60M | 444.98M | -57.94M | 43.33M | 74.05M |
Willis Lease Finance Technical Analysis
Negative
54.62
Price Trends
50.20
Negative
58.80
Negative
60.54
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.01
Negative
35.50
Neutral
41.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For WLFC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 54.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.75, above the 50-day MA of 50.20, and below the 200-day MA of 60.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for WLFC.
Willis Lease Finance Risk Analysis
Willis Lease Finance disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Willis Lease Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Willis Lease Finance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
39.11
-3.59
-8.40%
AER
Aercap Holdings
147.87
28.45
23.82%
Willis Lease Finance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceStock Split
Willis Lease Finance Completes Series B Preferred Offering
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
On September 29, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation closed a private placement of 1,750,000 shares of Series B Preferred Stock at $20.00 per share with Development Bank of Japan Inc., while simultaneously putting in place detailed designations...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Willis Lease Finance boosts capital with DBJ investment
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 16, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation entered into a $35 million Series B Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement with the Development Bank of Japan for 1,750,000 shares carrying an 8.09% annual dividend and a $20.00 liquidation prefe...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Willis Lease Finance Highlights Strategy at Aviation Forum
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation Chief Executive Officer Austin C. Willis participated in Deutsche Bank’s 16th Annual Aviation Forum in New York, underscoring the company’s role as an integrated aviation finance a...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Willis Lease Finance Expands Portfolio With Aircraft Acquisition
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
On August 24, 2026, Willis Dallas Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Willis Lease Finance Corporation, closed the previously announced acquisition of WNG II Aircraft Leasing (Cayman) Ltd. and WNG Aircraft Management 3, LLC, securing a portfolio of...
DividendsStock Split
Willis Lease Finance Declares Post-Split Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 29 and July 30, 2026, Willis Lease Finance Corporation’s board declared and announced a third-quarter cash dividend of $0.133 per share of common stock, a level adjusted to reflect the company’s 3-for-1 stock split earlier in t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.