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Avis Budget
(NASDAQ:CAR)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$136.00
▼(-6.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (revenue decline, net losses, and a highly leveraged/negative-equity balance sheet) and bearish technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Partially offsetting this, the earnings call supports a modestly better outlook via reiterated EBITDA guidance, operational improvements, and liquidity actions, while valuation is difficult to assess cleanly due to losses and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Fleet Utilization and Operating Efficiency
Higher utilization with a smaller fleet indicates improved asset productivity and disciplined capacity management. Sustained execution can support margins and cash generation by increasing rental output per vehicle while limiting unnecessary fleet investment.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
Heavy debt and negative equity leave Avis Budget with limited financial cushion if demand, fleet values, or cash generation weaken. Elevated leverage also increases refinancing sensitivity and can constrain investment, capital allocation, and strategic flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fleet Utilization and Operating Efficiency
Higher utilization with a smaller fleet indicates improved asset productivity and disciplined capacity management. Sustained execution can support margins and cash generation by increasing rental output per vehicle while limiting unnecessary fleet investment.
Read all positive factors
Avis Budget (CAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.13B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)593.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth0.45%
EPS Growth71.43%
CountryUS
Employees21,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-18.03
Shares Outstanding35,325,752
10 Day Avg. Volume441,280
30 Day Avg. Volume593,151
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio-0.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$135.00Price Target Upside-6.98% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.68B
Avis Budget Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Avis Budget Group, Inc. is a prominent global provider of diverse mobility solutions, delivering vehicle rental services for both cars and trucks, alongside car-sharing options, to a broad clientele encompassing businesses and individual consumers...
How the Company Makes Money
Avis Budget generates revenue primarily by renting vehicles to customers on a short-term basis, with pricing typically based on time (daily/weekly) and often influenced by location, seasonality, length of rental, and vehicle class. A meaningful po...
Avis Budget Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously positive tone: management highlighted disciplined execution that produced adjusted EBITDA growth, record utilization, RPD stabilization, strengthened liquidity measures, and strategic progress on Waymo and Avis First. At the same time, meaningful near-term headwinds were acknowledged, including softer-than-expected travel demand (notably international), significant recall-related costs and grounded vehicles, elevated leverage and refinancing cost risk, and the potential for used-vehicle price moderation. Management emphasized conservative fleet sizing, operational improvements and capital allocation focused on deleveraging and returns, which supports confidence in guidance but leaves exposure to the noted demand, recall and market risks.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA grew year-over-year, delivering the highest second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin in the last 3 years. The company exceeded its first-half adjusted EBITDA plan and reiterated full-year guidance of $850 million to $1 billion.
Negative Updates
Softer Travel Demand and Revenue Pressure
TSA check-ins decelerated during the quarter (from flat in April to -70 bps in May to -1.3% in June). Overseas visitors to the U.S. (CBP I-94) were down ~8% in Q2. Americas revenue declined ~1.9% year-over-year and Americas rental days declined ~2.1% (driven in part by an intentional fleet reduction).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA grew year-over-year, delivering the highest second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin in the last 3 years. The company exceeded its first-half adjusted EBITDA plan and reiterated full-year guidance of $850 million to $1 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Avis reiterated full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $850 million to $1.0 billion and expects to reduce net corporate leverage by at least one full turn of adjusted EBITDA by year‑end 2026 (net corporate leverage was 7.4x as of June 30, down 100 bps since year‑end 2025). Management expects Q3 to resemble Q2 with Americas fleet down roughly mid‑single digits (Americas fleet down ~5–5.4% YoY), rental days down ~2–2.1% (inbound down ~5%), utilization at a record 73.2% in the Americas, RPD broadly flat (RPD ex‑FX +0.2% in Americas; global RPD two consecutive quarters of positive growth), revenue per transaction +6% YoY, and per‑unit depreciation unusually low at $301 (normalized ~$320). Liquidity/funding includes >$1.0 billion available liquidity, ~$1.9 billion fleet funding capacity, a expected $650 million Pentwater settlement (planned to retire the remaining $350 million 2027 notes), a $300 million 2031 note issuance, a revolver extended to June 2031 plus a temporary $200 million facility, and ABS financings of $650 million (AESOP) and $200 million (Canada); recalls have grounded roughly 18,000 vehicles and driven >$50 million of YTD direct costs.Avis Budget Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.71B | 11.65B | 11.79B | 12.01B | 11.99B | 9.31B |
| Gross Profit | 3.73B | 2.85B | 3.00B | 3.93B | 4.77B | 3.39B |
| EBITDA | 3.68B | 4.44B | 2.67B | 6.43B | 7.15B | 4.74B |
| Net Income | -636.00M | -889.00M | -1.82B | 1.63B | 2.76B | 1.28B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 32.33B | 32.19B | 29.95B | 33.42B | 25.93B | 22.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 558.00M | 519.00M | 537.00M | 559.00M | 572.00M | 537.00M |
| Total Debt | 29.13B | 31.17B | 26.04B | 26.45B | 20.92B | 17.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.55B | 35.24B | 32.27B | 33.76B | 26.63B | 22.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.39B | -3.13B | -2.33B | -349.00M | -703.00M | -220.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.40B | -11.98B | -6.54B | -11.63B | 576.00M | -2.59B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.91B | 3.30B | 3.52B | 3.83B | 4.71B | 3.49B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.82B | -5.16B | -2.75B | -7.35B | -4.30B | -6.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 10.00M | 1.86B | -781.00M | 3.51B | -360.00M | 2.69B |
Avis Budget Technical Analysis
Negative
145.13
Price Trends
154.94
Negative
192.93
Negative
157.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.06
Negative
46.23
Neutral
68.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 145.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 141.47, below the 50-day MA of 154.94, and below the 200-day MA of 157.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CAR.
Avis Budget Risk Analysis
Avis Budget disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avis Budget reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avis Budget Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.59B | 10.84 | 19.36% | 1.24% | 4.52% | -29.04% | |
68 Neutral | $9.44B | 20.26 | 16.70% | 1.36% | 1.12% | 3.84% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $5.22B | 106.29 | 2.56% | 1.72% | 28.50% | 67.75% | |
50 Neutral | $3.85B | -57.73 | -7.45% | 1.06% | -2.51% | -162.51% | |
47 Neutral | $5.13B | -7.99 | 20.63% | ― | 0.45% | 71.43% | |
46 Neutral | $794.89M | -2.35 | 50.96% | ― | 3.39% | 89.28% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CAR
Avis Budget
144.00
-14.54
-9.17%
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Avis Budget Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Extends Revolving Credit Facilities to 2031
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Avis Budget Group, Inc. and key subsidiaries entered into an eleventh amendment to their sixth amended and restated credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank and other lenders. Under this amendment, the borrower refinanced its ex...
Financial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Avis Budget Reaches $650 Million Legal Settlement Agreement
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 19, 2026, Avis Budget Group, Inc. entered into a Settlement and Release Agreement with Pentwater Capital Management LP and certain affiliates to resolve a pending lawsuit seeking recovery of short-swing profits under Section 16(b) of the S...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Issues New Asset-Backed Securities for Fleet Funding
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 9, 2026, Avis Budget’s Avis Budget Rental Car Funding (AESOP) LLC subsidiary issued $650 million of asset-backed securities in Series 2026-3 and Series 2026-4, with tranches of Class A through Class D notes carrying maturities of thr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Issues Additional Senior Notes to Refinance Debt
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Avis Budget Car Rental and Avis Budget Finance issued an additional $300 million of 8.000% senior notes due 2031, bringing the total size of that series to $800 million and further extending the company’s long-term debt stac...
Executive/Board Changes
Avis Budget Names New Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Avis Budget Group, Inc. appointed long-time finance executive Tina Goldenberg as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective June 15, 2026, succeeding retiring Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer Cathleen...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Avis Budget Shareholders Uphold Board, Reject Governance Changes
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its May 20, 2026 annual meeting, Avis Budget Group shareholders elected six director nominees to one-year terms ending in 2027, reaffirming the existing board leadership. Investors also ratified Deloitte Touche LLP as the independent auditor f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.