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Herc Holdings
(NYSE:HRI)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$140.00
â–¼(-10.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial fundamentals (profitability deterioration, high/rising leverage, and negative TTM free cash flow) and bearish technical momentum (below key short-term moving averages with a negative MACD). These are partly offset by a constructive earnings-call update with raised 2026 guidance and improving operational metrics, while valuation remains a concern due to a very high P/E despite a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Raised guidance and operating momentum
Higher full-year guidance, strong rental-revenue growth, and improved utilization indicate better fleet productivity and operating execution. If sustained, these gains can support EBITDA growth and strengthen the earnings base over the next several quarters despite ongoing investment needs.
Negative Factors
High and rising leverage
The sharp increase in debt and very high debt-to-equity ratio leave Herc more financially stretched than in prior periods. Elevated leverage can constrain capital allocation, increase refinancing sensitivity, and reduce the company’s ability to absorb weaker rental demand or prolonged operating pressure.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Raised guidance and operating momentum
Higher full-year guidance, strong rental-revenue growth, and improved utilization indicate better fleet productivity and operating execution. If sustained, these gains can support EBITDA growth and strengthen the earnings base over the next several quarters despite ongoing investment needs.
Read all positive factors
Herc Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down Herc Holdings' revenue across its main business lines—equipment rental, used equipment sales, parts and service, and other operations—revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and cash flow and how dependent the company is on construction cycles, fleet utilization, and equipment pricing.
Breaks down Herc Holdings' revenue across its main business lines—equipment rental, used equipment sales, parts and service, and other operations—revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and cash flow and how dependent the company is on construction cycles, fleet utilization, and equipment pricing.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHerc Holdings (HRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.71B
Dividend Yield1.99%
Average Volume (3M)445.98K
Price to Earnings (P/E)95.9
Beta (1Y)1.64
Revenue Growth28.50%
EPS Growth67.75%
CountryUS
Employees9,600
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.47
Shares Outstanding33,431,442
10 Day Avg. Volume409,118
30 Day Avg. Volume445,982
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-46.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-34.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$179.67Price Target Upside14.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)7.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.96B
Herc Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting ...
How the Company Makes Money
Herc Holdings primarily makes money by renting equipment to customers for defined periods (e.g., daily, weekly, or longer-term rentals), generating revenue based on rental rates and utilization of its fleet. Its key revenue stream is equipment ren...
Herc Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum following the H&E integration: revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew materially, pro forma utilization and fleet efficiency improved, specialty and mega-project pipelines accelerated, and management raised guidance. The primary headwinds are elevated fuel and transportation inflation, near-term margin compression on a pro forma basis, and a temporary reduction in free cash flow due to stepped-up fleet investment, all of which management is addressing via pricing actions, logistics transformation and targeted capital allocation. On balance, the positives (revenue inflection, utilization gains, raised guidance and synergy progress) substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance
GAAP equipment rental revenue rose ~23% year-over-year and total revenues grew ~20%. Management raised full-year equipment rental revenue guidance to a midpoint of $4.425 billion and now expects pro forma equipment rental revenue growth of nearly 5% at the revised midpoint on flat average OEC.
Negative Updates
Fuel and Transportation Inflation Headwind
Fuel and transportation costs rose approximately 35% since Q1, pressuring margins. Management estimated the fuel/freight increase reduced adjusted EBITDA margin by roughly 150 basis points (and referenced a ~170 basis-point impact elsewhere) and expects fuel/freight to be roughly a 1-point drag on full-year adjusted EBITDA margin.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Raised Guidance
GAAP equipment rental revenue rose ~23% year-over-year and total revenues grew ~20%. Management raised full-year equipment rental revenue guidance to a midpoint of $4.425 billion and now expects pro forma equipment rental revenue growth of nearly 5% at the revised midpoint on flat average OEC.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 guidance: at the midpoint they now expect equipment rental revenue of $4.425 billion (pro forma ≈ +5% on flat average OEC), adjusted EBITDA of about $2.09 billion, and roughly $900 million of net fleet CapEx (gross CapEx midpoint discussed ≈ $1.325 billion with ~70–75% weighted to Q2–Q3); free cash flow is now forecast at $250–$350 million (H1 FCF was $202 million), liquidity is $2.1 billion and net leverage was 3.95x at quarter end, and management continues to target $100–$120 million of incremental revenue synergies and $90 million of incremental cost synergies this year toward a $125 million target, while modeling fuel and freight as a roughly 1‑point headwind to full‑year adjusted EBITDA margin (fuel/freight rose ~35% since Q1, pressuring margins ~150–170 bps in Q2); key Q2 operating metrics cited included equipment rental revenue up ~23% YoY (total revenue +20%), adjusted EBITDA +19% (margin 40.4%), pro forma dollar utilization +200 bps, and $247 million of fleet dispositions recovering ~46%.Herc Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.86B | 4.38B | 3.57B | 3.28B | 2.74B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 1.41B | 1.23B | 1.35B | 1.22B | 1.06B | 756.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 1.50B | 870.00M | 775.00M | 654.00M | 446.00M |
| Net Income | 49.00M | 1.00M | 211.00M | 347.00M | 330.00M | 224.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.72B | 13.78B | 7.88B | 7.06B | 5.96B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.00M | 52.00M | 83.00M | 71.00M | 53.50M | 35.10M |
| Total Debt | 9.46B | 11.16B | 5.07B | 4.48B | 3.62B | 2.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.83B | 11.83B | 6.48B | 5.79B | 4.85B | 3.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.89B | 1.95B | 1.40B | 1.27B | 1.11B | 976.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 93.00M | -135.00M | 16.00M | -390.00M | -355.00M | 102.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 846.00M | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.09B | 917.00M | 743.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -265.00M | -4.83B | -1.51B | -1.58B | -1.68B | -960.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -515.00M | 3.81B | 299.00M | 512.00M | 785.00M | 220.00M |
Herc Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
156.24
Price Trends
153.16
Negative
142.71
Negative
139.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.41
Positive
35.20
Neutral
10.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 156.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 157.84, above the 50-day MA of 153.16, and above the 200-day MA of 139.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRI.
Herc Holdings Risk Analysis
Herc Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Herc Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Herc Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $9.53B | 20.17 | 16.70% | 1.51% | 1.12% | 3.84% | |
72 Outperform | $62.86B | 24.36 | 29.18% | 0.76% | 6.88% | 7.64% | |
71 Outperform | $2.73B | 17.94 | 12.44% | 1.76% | -0.92% | -39.51% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | $3.62B | -54.00 | -7.45% | 1.40% | -2.51% | -162.51% | |
49 Neutral | $4.71B | 95.86 | 2.56% | 1.99% | 28.50% | 67.75% | |
47 Neutral | $4.90B | -7.69 | 20.63% | 5.19% | 0.45% | 71.43% |
* General Sector Average
HRI
Herc Holdings
140.92
5.54
4.09%
CAR
Avis Budget
138.73
-19.80
-12.49%
WSC
WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings
19.98
-2.92
-12.74%
MGRC
Mcgrath Rentcorp
111.59
-9.75
-8.04%
R
Ryder System
248.44
63.61
34.41%
URI
United Rentals
1,009.86
47.49
4.93%
Herc Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Herc Holdings Expands Receivables Financing and Extends Maturity
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Herc Rentals Inc. and its wholly owned special purpose vehicle, Herc Receivables U.S. LLC, entered into a Ninth Amendment to their existing receivables financing agreement with Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Herc Holdings Adds Erik Olsson to Board
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Herc Holdings’ Board elected Erik Olsson, former chairman, president, and CEO of Mobile Mini and former CEO of RSC Holdings, as an independent director, effective immediately. The Board also appointed him to the Audit Com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.