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Herc Holdings
(NYSE:HRI)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$153.00
▲(38.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/29/26
The score is held back most by high leverage and weak/negative net profitability with historically volatile free cash flow, despite strong operating cash generation. Technicals are supportive with strong momentum (above 20/50DMAs and positive MACD) but appear overbought (RSI/Stoch), and valuation lacks support due to a negative P/E. The earnings call adds moderate confidence via affirmed guidance, synergy capture, and Q1 free cash flow, but the back-half recovery and deleveraging plan carry execution risk.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow near $1.2B TTM provides durable internal funding for a capital‑intensive rental model. This cash generation supports fleet replacement, disposals and debt service, enabling the company to pursue synergies and deleveraging even if free cash flow timing remains uneven.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
A materially elevated debt load and ~5.7x leverage materially constrain financial flexibility. High leverage increases refinancing and interest‑rate risk, limits ability to absorb demand shocks, and makes successful execution of disposals, synergies and sustained cash generation essential to avoid capital strain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow near $1.2B TTM provides durable internal funding for a capital‑intensive rental model. This cash generation supports fleet replacement, disposals and debt service, enabling the company to pursue synergies and deleveraging even if free cash flow timing remains uneven.
Read all positive factors
Herc Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down Herc Holdings' revenue across its main business lines—equipment rental, used equipment sales, parts and service, and other operations—revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and cash flow and how dependent the company is on construction cycles, fleet utilization, and equipment pricing.
Breaks down Herc Holdings' revenue across its main business lines—equipment rental, used equipment sales, parts and service, and other operations—revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and cash flow and how dependent the company is on construction cycles, fleet utilization, and equipment pricing.
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The Fly
The FlyHerc Holdings (HRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.97B
Dividend Yield1.79%
Average Volume (3M)576.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth28.39%
EPS Growth-105.83%
CountryUS
Employees9,600
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.27
Shares Outstanding33,393,050
10 Day Avg. Volume524,430
30 Day Avg. Volume576,284
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-46.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-34.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$161.20Price Target Upside46.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)6.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.78B
Herc Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting ...
How the Company Makes Money
Herc Holdings primarily makes money by renting equipment to customers for defined rental periods. The largest revenue stream is equipment rental revenue generated from its core fleet (e.g., earthmoving, material handling, aerial equipment, trucks ...
Herc Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a balanced view: significant positive operational and financial milestones (integration completion, GAAP revenue and EBITDA growth, record e-commerce, specialty expansion, strong free cash flow and accelerating cost synergy capture) were offset by near-term pro forma revenue and margin pressure, elevated leverage (3.96x), and reliance on back-half weighted revenue synergies. Management presented a clear plan and confidence in a second-half recovery and multi-year deleveraging path, but execution and timing risk remain.Positive Updates
Integration of H&E Completed
Largest acquisition in the industry (H&E) fully integrated; 2,500 employees added, branch optimization program completed and management cites integration as behind them enabling focus on growth and synergies.
Negative Updates
Pro Forma Revenue and EBITDA Pressure
On a pro forma basis (adjusting for acquisition), rental revenue declined approximately 3% YoY in Q1 and pro forma Adjusted EBITDA was down ~5% YoY, reflecting integration-related performance drag and lower-margin acquired business.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Integration of H&E Completed
Largest acquisition in the industry (H&E) fully integrated; 2,500 employees added, branch optimization program completed and management cites integration as behind them enabling focus on growth and synergies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management affirmed full‑year 2026 guidance across all metrics while outlining a back‑half weighted recovery: Q1 actual equipment rental revenue rose 33% (pro forma -3%), adjusted EBITDA rose 33% (pro forma -5%) with adjusted EBITDA margin at 39.3% (EBITDA up ~30% and rental EBITDA margin cited ~40%), and Q1 free cash flow was $94 million. They reiterated $100–$120 million of revenue synergies for 2026 (back‑half weighted), expect to capture an incremental $90 million of cost synergies this year toward a $125 million total by year‑end, plan to deleverage from a pro forma 3.96x leverage ratio back toward a 2–3x target by year‑end 2027, and highlighted fleet and specialty metrics (fleet OEC $9.4B, $183M Q1 fleet investments, $281M disposals realized at 49% of OEC, double‑digit specialty revenue growth and 25% more specialty locations) as the drivers of the projected Q3–Q4 margin expansion.Herc Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.65B | 4.38B | 3.57B | 3.28B | 2.74B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 1.36B | 1.23B | 1.35B | 1.22B | 1.06B | 756.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.09B | 1.50B | 870.00M | 775.00M | 654.00M | 446.00M |
| Net Income | -5.00M | 1.00M | 211.00M | 347.00M | 330.00M | 224.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.56B | 13.78B | 7.88B | 7.06B | 5.96B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.00M | 52.00M | 83.00M | 71.00M | 53.50M | 35.10M |
| Total Debt | 9.64B | 11.16B | 5.07B | 4.48B | 3.62B | 2.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.67B | 11.83B | 6.48B | 5.79B | 4.85B | 3.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.95B | 1.40B | 1.27B | 1.11B | 976.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 150.00M | -135.00M | 16.00M | -390.00M | -355.00M | 102.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.23B | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.09B | 917.00M | 743.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.88B | -4.83B | -1.51B | -1.58B | -1.68B | -960.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.78B | 3.81B | 299.00M | 512.00M | 785.00M | 220.00M |
Herc Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
110.18
Price Trends
138.52
Positive
127.32
Positive
134.74
Positive
Market Momentum
1.04
Positive
56.51
Neutral
62.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 110.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 145.04, below the 50-day MA of 138.52, and below the 200-day MA of 134.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HRI.
Herc Holdings Risk Analysis
Herc Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Herc Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Herc Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $68.63B | 28.09 | 27.88% | 0.88% | 5.05% | 1.39% | |
71 Outperform | $10.40B | 22.23 | 16.36% | 1.75% | -0.07% | 4.18% | |
68 Neutral | $2.87B | 18.51 | 12.84% | 1.79% | 3.14% | -34.73% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $4.75B | -71.07 | -7.11% | 1.44% | -4.12% | -487.73% | |
56 Neutral | $4.97B | -557.22 | -0.26% | 1.79% | 28.39% | -105.83% | |
48 Neutral | $5.52B | -8.35 | 22.83% | ― | 0.72% | 69.91% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HRI
Herc Holdings
148.91
15.54
11.65%
CAR
Avis Budget
156.19
-38.67
-19.85%
WSC
WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings
26.24
-3.52
-11.84%
MGRC
Mcgrath Rentcorp
116.76
-0.65
-0.56%
R
Ryder System
268.91
97.76
57.12%
URI
United Rentals
1,095.55
293.62
36.61%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.