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Herc Holdings
(NYSE:HRI)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$130.00
▼(-16.79% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
HRI scores mid-range: strong and improving business momentum from the earnings call (raised guidance, synergy execution, better fleet efficiency) is tempered by financial risk (high leverage and weak/volatile net profitability) and an unfavorable setup on both valuation (very high P/E) and technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Rental growth and fleet efficiency
Rental revenue growing substantially faster than fleet size indicates stronger utilization, pricing and deployment discipline. This operating leverage can support durable productivity gains and better returns on invested fleet capital as Herc serves customers across its broad equipment platform.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
High and worsening leverage reduces financial flexibility and leaves more operating cash flow committed to debt obligations. It can constrain fleet investment, acquisitions and shareholder returns if rental demand weakens, while low TTM ROE indicates limited returns relative to the enlarged equity base.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rental growth and fleet efficiency
Rental revenue growing substantially faster than fleet size indicates stronger utilization, pricing and deployment discipline. This operating leverage can support durable productivity gains and better returns on invested fleet capital as Herc serves customers across its broad equipment platform.
Read all positive factors
Herc Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down Herc Holdings' revenue across its main business lines—equipment rental, used equipment sales, parts and service, and other operations—revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and cash flow and how dependent the company is on construction cycles, fleet utilization, and equipment pricing.
Breaks down Herc Holdings' revenue across its main business lines—equipment rental, used equipment sales, parts and service, and other operations—revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and cash flow and how dependent the company is on construction cycles, fleet utilization, and equipment pricing.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHerc Holdings (HRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.25B
Dividend Yield2.2%
Average Volume (3M)810.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)86.5
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth28.50%
EPS Growth67.75%
CountryUS
Employees9,600
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.68
Shares Outstanding33,431,442
10 Day Avg. Volume656,299
30 Day Avg. Volume810,571
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-46.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-34.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.37
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$175.00Price Target Upside12.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.95B
Herc Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting ...
How the Company Makes Money
Herc Holdings primarily makes money by renting equipment to customers for defined periods (e.g., daily, weekly, or longer-term rentals), generating revenue based on rental rates and utilization of its fleet. Its key revenue stream is equipment ren...
Herc Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported robust rental revenue and EBITDA growth, improved fleet efficiency, successful H&E integration, growing specialty and mega-project demand, raised earnings guidance, and maintained free cash flow guidance. These positives outweighed margin pressure from operating cost inflation, fuel and freight, pricing that has not fully matched inflation, softness in commercial construction, and the continued maturation required for some specialty locations.Positive Updates
Leadership Succession and Continuity
Lawrence Silber will transition to Executive Chairman at the start of next year, and Aaron Birnbaum will become CEO on January 1. Management described the transition as reflecting strong succession planning, with Birnbaum bringing more than 35 years of experience across branch operations, sales, regional field management and executive leadership.
Negative Updates
REBITDA Margin Decline
REBITDA margin was 45.2%, down 70 basis points year-over-year. Higher rental volume, pricing improvement and H&E synergies were more than offset by core operating cost inflation, higher field incentive compensation tied to operational outperformance, and fuel and freight inflation.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Leadership Succession and Continuity
Lawrence Silber will transition to Executive Chairman at the start of next year, and Aaron Birnbaum will become CEO on January 1. Management described the transition as reflecting strong succession planning, with Birnbaum bringing more than 35 years of experience across branch operations, sales, regional field management and executive leadership.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s updated 2026 guidance is for full year equipment rental revenue of $4.513 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.13 billion at the midpoint, up about 2% from the previous guidance, with net fleet CapEx of approximately $1.05 billion at the midpoint, including roughly $150 million of incremental net fleet CapEx pulled forward from the 2027 fleet budget; 2026 free cash flow guidance remains unchanged at $250 million to $350 million. At the new midpoint, second half equipment rental revenue growth is approximately 14% on average OEC fleet growth of approximately 4%, and full year pro forma rental revenue growth is about 8% on roughly 2% average OEC growth; management expects to return to the top of its targeted leverage range by the end of 2027, with $90 million incremental cost synergies and $110 million to $120 million incremental revenue synergies both on track.Herc Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.92B | 4.38B | 3.57B | 3.28B | 2.74B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 1.03B | 1.23B | 1.35B | 1.22B | 1.06B | 756.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.65B | 1.50B | 1.55B | 1.42B | 1.19B | 866.00M |
| Net Income | 123.00M | 1.00M | 211.00M | 347.00M | 330.00M | 224.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.06B | 13.78B | 7.88B | 7.06B | 5.96B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 66.00M | 52.00M | 83.00M | 71.00M | 53.50M | 35.10M |
| Total Debt | 1.44B | 11.16B | 5.07B | 4.48B | 3.62B | 2.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.07B | 11.83B | 6.48B | 5.79B | 4.85B | 3.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.98B | 1.95B | 1.40B | 1.27B | 1.11B | 976.90M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.64B | -135.00M | 16.00M | -390.00M | -355.00M | 102.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.30B | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.09B | 917.00M | 743.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -849.00M | -4.83B | -1.51B | -1.58B | -1.68B | -960.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -312.00M | 3.81B | 299.00M | 512.00M | 785.00M | 220.00M |
Herc Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
156.24
Price Trends
138.90
Positive
145.11
Positive
137.97
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.47
Negative
67.30
Neutral
66.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 156.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.40, above the 50-day MA of 138.90, and above the 200-day MA of 137.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HRI.
Herc Holdings Risk Analysis
Herc Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Herc Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Herc Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $69.46B | 24.76 | 31.01% | 0.69% | 9.45% | 17.03% | |
74 Outperform | $32.54B | 23.99 | 18.46% | 1.32% | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $2.05B | 69.47 | 4.47% | ― | 7.03% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $4.25B | 86.48 | 2.56% | 2.20% | 28.50% | 67.75% | |
52 Neutral | $2.98B | -44.51 | -7.45% | 1.70% | -2.51% | -162.51% | |
50 Neutral | $4.13B | 172.79 | 5.46% | ― | 18.16% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
HRI
Herc Holdings
156.06
20.07
14.76%
WSC
WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings
17.65
-4.56
-20.52%
URI
United Rentals
1,162.00
293.42
33.78%
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
10.51
4.49
74.58%
EQPT
EquipmentShare.com, Inc.
17.71
-14.85
-45.61%
SUNB
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc
81.84
9.11
12.52%
Herc Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Herc Holdings Announces CEO Succession and Governance Changes
Positive
Oct 26, 2026
On October 23, 2026, Herc Holdings’ board approved a leadership succession in its equipment rental business, under which President Aaron Birnbaum will become chief executive officer and join the board on January 1, 2027, while long‑tim...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Herc Holdings Expands Receivables Financing and Extends Maturity
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Herc Rentals Inc. and its wholly owned special purpose vehicle, Herc Receivables U.S. LLC, entered into a Ninth Amendment to their existing receivables financing agreement with Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Herc Holdings Adds Erik Olsson to Board
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Herc Holdings’ Board elected Erik Olsson, former chairman, president, and CEO of Mobile Mini and former CEO of RSC Holdings, as an independent director, effective immediately. The Board also appointed him to the Audit Com...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.