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Pagaya Technologies Ltd
(NASDAQ:PGY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(3.32% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/29/26
PGY scores well on improving financial performance and a very positive earnings-call setup (raised guidance, record profitability, and strengthening funding/partner momentum). Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages, though near-term momentum appears stretched. Valuation is reasonable on a ~13.6 P/E, while elevated leverage remains the primary risk factor to monitor.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Pagaya has built a substantial multi-year revenue ramp while moving from losses to positive and increasing net income. This combination indicates improving platform scale and commercial traction, creating a stronger base for sustained earnings generation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Meaningful leverage leaves Pagaya more exposed if earnings or funding conditions weaken, because interest, refinancing, and asset-performance pressures can absorb cash generation. It also limits flexibility relative to less-levered peers when allocating capital through a downturn.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Pagaya has built a substantial multi-year revenue ramp while moving from losses to positive and increasing net income. This combination indicates improving platform scale and commercial traction, creating a stronger base for sustained earnings generation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Network Volume
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.6
Beta (1Y)2.51
Revenue Growth17.79%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees493
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.50
Shares Outstanding72,137,270
10 Day Avg. Volume1,821,339
30 Day Avg. Volume2,277,944
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.18
Price to Book (P/B)3.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio7.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.31
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.38Price Target Upside27.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.46B
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a financial technology enterprise operating across Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. The company specializes in developing and implementing its proprietary artificial intelligence systems and associated...
How the Company Makes Money
Pagaya makes money primarily by monetizing its AI-enabled lending infrastructure through a combination of (1) fees earned for facilitating loan origination and funding and (2) income and fees associated with managing loan assets and related financ...
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Record profitability, 29% network volume growth, 42% application growth, strong credit performance, expanded bank partnerships, record pipeline activity, diversified funding, lower borrowing costs, and raised full-year guidance significantly outweighed the lower FRLPC rate, seasonal Q4 volume decline, Klarna's exit, slightly lower conversion, and the portfolio fair-value adjustment.Positive Updates
Record Net Income and Strong Profitability
Pagaya delivered record GAAP net income of nearly $50 million in Q3, up 121% year-over-year, with a 13% net income margin versus 6% a year ago. Management said the company held costs flat, allowing nearly 100% of incremental growth to flow to the bottom line.
Negative Updates
Higher Rates Reduced FRLPC Margin
Higher rates increased Pagaya's cost of capital and reduced FRLPC as a percentage of volume. Q3 FRLPC was $146 million, up 5% year-over-year, but the FRLPC rate declined 91 basis points year-over-year to 4.1%, at the low end of the 4% to 5% target range.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Income and Strong Profitability
Pagaya delivered record GAAP net income of nearly $50 million in Q3, up 121% year-over-year, with a 13% net income margin versus 6% a year ago. Management said the company held costs flat, allowing nearly 100% of incremental growth to flow to the bottom line.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q4 2026, volume will be seasonally lower than Q3, with the ex Klarna seasonal decline expected to be “about 5% to 6% versus 9% in 2025”; FRLPC as a percentage of volume is expected “near the lower end of the 4% to 5% range,” beginning to rise towards the end of Q4 and continuing into 2027 when Pagaya expects to get closer to the middle of the range. For full year 2026, the company expects network volume of $12.725 billion to $13.025 billion, total revenue and other income of $1.45 billion to $1.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $465 million to $485 million and GAAP net income of $162 million to $182 million, with a projected 112% increase in net income; it also reiterated guidance of 2 to 4 partners a year.Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 1.26B | 1.00B | 772.81M | 685.41M | 445.87M |
| Gross Profit | 538.66M | 512.17M | 406.90M | 263.87M | 234.33M | 213.54M |
| EBITDA | 121.23M | 81.70M | 67.89M | -44.51M | -308.73M | -33.72M |
| Net Income | 126.81M | 81.39M | -401.41M | -128.44M | -302.32M | -91.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.69B | 1.55B | 1.29B | 1.21B | 1.05B | 590.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.29B | 1.19B | 195.72M | 188.97M | 310.80M | 200.94M |
| Total Debt | 907.34M | 858.48M | 680.81M | 412.58M | 212.26M | 37.91M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.04B | 990.56M | 849.53M | 542.63M | 279.66M | 105.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 594.15M | 480.02M | 326.49M | 559.72M | 553.52M | 308.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 251.78M | 224.72M | 43.28M | -10.61M | -62.41M | 43.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.73M | 238.62M | 66.52M | 9.58M | -40.00M | 49.81M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -292.37M | -309.71M | -498.64M | -412.69M | -159.95M | -140.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 85.92M | 129.60M | 436.69M | 289.10M | 332.45M | 289.62M |
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
22.26
Price Trends
19.76
Positive
18.79
Positive
16.52
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Negative
61.55
Neutral
92.67
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.30, above the 50-day MA of 19.76, and above the 200-day MA of 16.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGY.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Risk Analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pagaya Technologies Ltd reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.71B | 13.65 | 24.48% | ― | 17.79% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $2.41B | 50.42 | 7.27% | ― | 6.31% | -48.91% | |
67 Neutral | $1.89B | 185.20 | 1.36% | ― | 22.41% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $772.13M | 6.11 | -39.38% | ― | 12.96% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $1.97B | 3.29 | 29.69% | 20.70% | -29.50% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $389.78M | -2.17 | -32.64% | ― | 8.84% | -62.58% |
* Technology Sector Average
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd
20.47
-5.53
-21.27%
RPAY
Repay Holdings
4.42
-0.02
-0.45%
STNE
Stoneco
8.09
-7.35
-47.60%
KPLT
Katapult Holdings
9.10
-1.99
-17.94%
PAYO
Payoneer
7.12
1.37
23.83%
MQ
Marqeta
18.15
0.39
2.20%
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Pagaya Delivers Record Q3 Results and Raises Outlook
Positive
Oct 29, 2026
On October 29, 2026, Pagaya reported record third-quarter 2026 results, including GAAP net income of $50 million, operating income of $113 million, total revenue and other income of $390 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $130 million, all reflecting...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pagaya Reveals Detailed Personal and Auto Loan Profiles
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
On October 5, 2026, Pagaya Technologies released detailed historical data on borrowers whose personal loans were facilitated through its network, showing an average loan size of about $11,000, a weighted average credit score of 662 and an average ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pagaya Technologies lifts guidance on strong Q2 performance
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Pagaya reported second-quarter 2026 results showing record performance across key metrics, including GAAP net income of $45 million, operating income of $106 million and adjusted EBITDA of $124 million, all sharply higher year ov...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.