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Pagaya Technologies Ltd
(NASDAQ:PGY)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▼(-7.91% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/24/26
PGY scores well on improving fundamentals—particularly the profitability turnaround and strong free cash flow—supported by a positive guidance-raise corporate update. These are partially offset by balance-sheet leverage and weak near-term technical momentum (price below key short-term averages with negative MACD and low RSI). Valuation appears reasonable with a ~12.48 P/E, providing additional support.
Positive Factors
Strong and improving cash generation
Rising operating and free cash flow gives Pagaya internally generated resources to support growth, funding activities, and balance-sheet needs. Free cash flow near net income also indicates strong conversion, although continued performance through a full credit cycle remains important.
Negative Factors
Meaningful balance-sheet leverage
Debt remains substantial relative to equity, reducing financial flexibility compared with less-levered software businesses. If earnings soften, leverage can amplify downside, increase pressure on cash allocation, and constrain Pagaya’s ability to fund expansion or absorb weaker credit-market conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong and improving cash generation
Rising operating and free cash flow gives Pagaya internally generated resources to support growth, funding activities, and balance-sheet needs. Free cash flow near net income also indicates strong conversion, although continued performance through a full credit cycle remains important.
Read all positive factors
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Network Volume
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Measures the total value of transactions processed through the network, indicating the platform's scale, user engagement, and potential for growth.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPagaya Technologies Ltd (PGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.44B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)2.52
Revenue Growth17.79%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees493
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.50
Shares Outstanding72,137,270
10 Day Avg. Volume2,967,162
30 Day Avg. Volume2,341,473
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.18
Price to Book (P/B)3.41
Price to Sales (P/S)1.30
P/FCF Ratio7.29
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.50Price Target Upside28.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.47B
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. is a financial technology enterprise operating across Israel, the United States, and the Cayman Islands. The company specializes in developing and implementing its proprietary artificial intelligence systems and associated...
How the Company Makes Money
Pagaya primarily makes money by providing technology and related services that help its lending partners originate consumer credit and by facilitating the funding of those originated loans through a network of capital providers.
Key revenue strea...
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial momentum: sustained GAAP profitability (fifth consecutive quarter), double-digit revenue growth, improved margins and strong adjusted EBITDA, record auto performance, successful capital raises and important capital‑market milestones (Fitch AAA, first auto securitization, resecuritizations providing recycleable capital), and an active partner onboarding pipeline. The company is managing market volatility prudently by diversifying funding across ABS and other channels and maintaining disciplined underwriting. Notable negatives include a $38M investment loss, downward fair‑value adjustments, FRLPC margin compression driven by higher cost of capital, ongoing private credit market repricing risk, and intentionally tighter underwriting that keeps application-to-volume conversion below 1%. Overall, the positive operational and capital‑markets achievements and upgraded guidance outweigh the financial and market headwinds discussed.Positive Updates
Fifth Consecutive Quarter of GAAP Profitability
GAAP net income of $25 million for 1Q26 (fifth straight profitable quarter), up $17 million YoY; GAAP net income margin improved to 8% from 3% in 1Q25.
Negative Updates
Losses and Fair‑Value Downward Adjustments
Gains and losses on investments in loans and securities included a loss of $38 million this quarter; fair value of the overall investment portfolio and allowances was adjusted downward by $21 million (compared to a $50 million adjustment in prior quarter).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fifth Consecutive Quarter of GAAP Profitability
GAAP net income of $25 million for 1Q26 (fifth straight profitable quarter), up $17 million YoY; GAAP net income margin improved to 8% from 3% in 1Q25.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
After reporting Q1 revenue of $318M, FRLPC of $121M, adjusted EBITDA of $94M and GAAP net income of $25M, Pagaya guided Q2 2026 network volume of $2.875B–$3.075B, total revenue & other income of $345M–$365M, adjusted EBITDA of $100M–$115M and GAAP net income of $25M–$45M; for full-year 2026 it expects network volume of $11.45B–$13.0B (raising the lower bound by ~$200M), total revenue of $1.4B–$1.575B, adjusted EBITDA of $420M–$460M, GAAP net income of $110M–$160M, assumes FRLPC margin of ~4%–5% for the year and that the cost of capital remains elevated at current levels.Pagaya Technologies Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 1.26B | 1.00B | 772.81M | 685.41M | 445.87M |
| Gross Profit | 538.66M | 512.17M | 406.90M | 263.87M | 234.33M | 213.54M |
| EBITDA | 121.23M | 81.70M | 67.89M | -44.51M | -308.73M | -33.72M |
| Net Income | 126.81M | 81.39M | -401.41M | -128.44M | -302.32M | -91.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.69B | 1.55B | 1.29B | 1.21B | 1.05B | 590.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.29B | 1.19B | 195.72M | 188.97M | 310.80M | 200.94M |
| Total Debt | 907.34M | 858.48M | 680.81M | 412.58M | 212.26M | 37.91M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.04B | 990.56M | 849.53M | 542.63M | 279.66M | 105.86M |
| Stockholders Equity | 594.15M | 480.02M | 326.49M | 559.72M | 553.52M | 308.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 251.78M | 224.72M | 43.28M | -10.61M | -62.41M | 43.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 264.73M | 238.62M | 66.52M | 9.58M | -40.00M | 49.81M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -292.37M | -309.71M | -498.64M | -412.69M | -159.95M | -140.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 85.92M | 129.60M | 436.69M | 289.10M | 332.45M | 289.62M |
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
22.26
Price Trends
20.29
Negative
17.94
Negative
16.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.95
Positive
35.75
Neutral
16.52
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.04, above the 50-day MA of 20.29, and above the 200-day MA of 16.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.52 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PGY.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Risk Analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Pagaya Technologies Ltd reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.98B | 42.25 | 15.70% | ― | 24.95% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $15.68B | 55.42 | 54.71% | ― | 21.41% | 83.31% | |
68 Neutral | $1.44B | 11.76 | 24.48% | ― | 17.79% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $2.47B | 6.22 | 14.60% | 8.79% | 11.04% | 15.45% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
48 Neutral | $860.68M | 63.16 | 4.60% | ― | -9.68% | -84.42% | |
47 Neutral | $1.76B | -6.92 | -23.93% | ― | 108.63% | 40.63% |
* Technology Sector Average
PGY
Pagaya Technologies Ltd
17.44
-11.96
-40.68%
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DOCN
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274.10%
ODD
ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A
18.92
-40.36
-68.08%
WRD
WeRide
5.20
-5.77
-52.60%
Pagaya Technologies Ltd Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Pagaya Technologies lifts guidance on strong Q2 performance
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Pagaya reported second-quarter 2026 results showing record performance across key metrics, including GAAP net income of $45 million, operating income of $106 million and adjusted EBITDA of $124 million, all sharply higher year ov...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.