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Progressive
(NYSE:PGR)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$231.00
â–²(14.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/16/26
The score is primarily driven by strong financial performance (major revenue growth, materially higher recent net margins, and robust free cash flow) and supportive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by a significant balance-sheet inconsistency/red flag in the TTM leverage/equity snapshot and weaker near-term technical signals (sub-40 RSI and trading below key moving averages).
Positive Factors
Revenue and profitability momentum
Progressive has scaled revenue materially while restoring and sustaining healthy underwriting profitability. Rising top-line from $47.7B to $87.6B and consistent net margins near double digits indicate durable demand, pricing power, and improved underwriting discipline driving long-term earnings stability.
Negative Factors
Sharp TTM leverage increase and weakened capitalization
A sudden TTM spike in leverage and collapse in reported equity dramatically raises solvency and liquidity risk over the medium term. Higher leverage diminishes the balance sheet's shock-absorption capacity for catastrophes and constrains management's ability to deploy capital without increasing funding costs or raising capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and profitability momentum
Progressive has scaled revenue materially while restoring and sustaining healthy underwriting profitability. Rising top-line from $47.7B to $87.6B and consistent net margins near double digits indicate durable demand, pricing power, and improved underwriting discipline driving long-term earnings stability.
Read all positive factors
Progressive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Premiums Written by Segment
Captures new and renewed premium business after reinsurance for each segment, reflecting sales momentum and customer retention. Trends indicate market demand, distribution effectiveness, and exposure growth that will convert into future earned revenue.
Captures new and renewed premium business after reinsurance for each segment, reflecting sales momentum and customer retention. Trends indicate market demand, distribution effectiveness, and exposure growth that will convert into future earned revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyProgressive (PGR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$121.51B
Dividend Yield6.55%
Average Volume (3M)3.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth10.49%
EPS Growth12.21%
CountryUS
Employees70,053
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding584,336,500
10 Day Avg. Volume2,448,192
30 Day Avg. Volume3,164,490
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.35
Price to Book (P/B)4.40
Price to Sales (P/S)1.52
P/FCF Ratio7.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$233.69Price Target Upside15.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Progressive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commer...
How the Company Makes Money
Progressive primarily makes money through (1) underwriting income and (2) investment income generated from its investment portfolio.
1) Underwriting (insurance) revenue and profit
- Premiums: The core source of revenue is insurance premiums paid ...
Progressive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 89.42B | 87.64B | 75.34B | 62.08B | 49.59B | 47.68B |
| Gross Profit | 25.44B | 25.83B | 20.90B | 11.76B | 7.55B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 15.15B | 14.81B | 11.28B | 5.46B | 1.47B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 11.56B | 11.31B | 8.48B | 3.90B | 722.00M | 3.35B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 122.21B | 123.04B | 105.75B | 88.69B | 75.47B | 71.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.29B | 19.84B | 76.09B | 62.25B | 49.72B | 45.00B |
| Total Debt | 8.39B | 6.90B | 6.89B | 6.89B | 6.39B | 4.90B |
| Total Liabilities | 90.17B | 92.72B | 80.15B | 68.41B | 59.57B | 52.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 32.04B | 30.32B | 25.59B | 20.28B | 15.89B | 18.23B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.42B | 17.20B | 14.83B | 10.39B | 6.56B | 7.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.77B | 17.55B | 15.12B | 10.64B | 6.85B | 7.76B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.55B | -14.53B | -13.75B | -10.84B | -7.96B | -3.12B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.25B | -3.04B | -1.32B | 78.00M | 1.13B | -4.52B |
Progressive Technical Analysis
Positive
202.58
Price Trends
208.06
Positive
205.42
Positive
207.76
Positive
Market Momentum
1.52
Positive
46.58
Neutral
15.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 202.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 221.50, below the 50-day MA of 208.06, and below the 200-day MA of 207.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PGR.
Progressive Risk Analysis
Progressive disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Progressive reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Progressive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $27.97B | 10.29 | 17.98% | 2.10% | 17.87% | 90.86% | |
83 Outperform | $64.33B | 5.53 | 42.71% | 1.91% | 4.40% | 209.62% | |
81 Outperform | $76.96B | 10.80 | 24.14% | 1.49% | 2.39% | 65.13% | |
78 Outperform | $26.66B | 15.34 | 19.48% | 1.88% | 6.61% | 9.14% | |
77 Outperform | $136.59B | 12.38 | 15.65% | 1.22% | 8.26% | 35.89% | |
75 Outperform | $121.51B | 10.76 | 45.08% | 2.20% | 10.49% | 12.21% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
PGR
Progressive
212.23
-17.95
-7.80%
CB
Chubb
352.53
81.96
30.29%
ALL
Allstate
253.73
64.62
34.17%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
180.36
34.63
23.76%
TRV
Travelers Companies
368.50
109.38
42.21%
WRB
W. R. Berkley Corporation
72.73
6.76
10.24%
Progressive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Progressive Announces Leadership Changes and Executive Compensation Updates
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 17, 2026, The Progressive Corporation announced that Personal Lines President Patrick K. Callahan intends to retire in January 2027, after which he plans to remain as a strategic advisor, while CRM President Lori Niederst will become Chief...
Financial Disclosures
Progressive Releases April 2026 Financial Results Update
Neutral
May 20, 2026
On May 20, 2026, The Progressive Corporation reported that it had released financial results for the company and its consolidated subsidiaries covering the month and year-to-date periods ended April 30, 2026. The disclosure signals ongoing transpa...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
Progressive Names New CFO and Extends Capital Returns
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Progressive’s board elected Andrew J. Quigg, currently Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer and formerly Chief Strategy Officer since July 2018, to become vice president and chief financial officer effective July 4, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.