Allstate (ALL) AI Stock Analysis

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Allstate

(NYSE:ALL)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$224.00

▲(11.82%Upside)

Allstate's overall score is supported by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, indicating strategic growth. Technical analysis and valuation suggest moderate market positioning, while significant challenges like catastrophe losses and retention issues require attention.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The 1Q25 EPS result exceeded the high estimate on the Street, highlighting strong performance.

Financial Performance

The company's investment portfolio harvested significant gains in real estate, exceeding forecasts.

Growth Opportunities

Allstate has ample opportunities for growth across product lines, which is expected to drive high-single-digit growth in the top line.

Negative Factors

Competitive Environment

The evolution of the competitive environment will be critical as more carriers are ready to compete for market share, with the broader auto insurance market seen as largely a zero sum game.

Growth Estimates

Allstate's 30bps April PIF miss vs. our estimate drives our 2025 growth estimate lower, to +2.6% (from +2.9%).

Market Expectations

April Auto PIF of 25,175, +0.3% M/M (+75K), slightly shy of the consensus monthly +0.3% 2Q pace, and below BMO's monthly April PIF estimate of 25,252 (+0.6% M/M).

Allstate (ALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$52.01B

Dividend Yield2.04%

Average Volume (3M)1.30M

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4

Beta (1Y)0.46

Revenue Growth11.49%

EPS Growth219.86%

CountryUS

Employees55,000

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength77

IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)3.53

Shares Outstanding264,817,500

10 Day Avg. Volume1,531,754

30 Day Avg. Volume1,300,809

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.21

Price to Book (P/B)2.10

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio7.82

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.17

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.97

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.87

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$232.23

Price Target Upside15.93% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

Allstate Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAllstate Corporation is a leading American insurance company, headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois. It operates primarily in the United States and Canada, offering a wide range of insurance products including auto, home, life, and other personal insurance lines. Allstate also offers financial services such as retirement and investment products. The company is well known for its 'You're in good hands' slogan, emphasizing its commitment to providing reliable and comprehensive insurance solutions to individuals and businesses.

How the Company Makes MoneyAllstate makes money primarily through the underwriting of insurance policies and investment income. The company's key revenue streams are derived from premiums paid by policyholders for auto, home, and life insurance products. Allstate also earns revenue from policy fees and other charges related to its insurance products. In addition to the underwriting income, Allstate invests the premiums it collects in a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and other securities, generating investment income. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as claims experience, changes in premium rates, regulatory environment, competition, and the overall economic conditions. Strategic partnerships with agents and affiliates also play a significant role in expanding Allstate's market reach and customer base.

Allstate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Property-Liability Premiums

Property-Liability Premiums
Shows the revenue generated from property and liability insurance, highlighting the company's core business strength and pricing strategy effectiveness.

Chart InsightsAllstate's Property-Liability premiums have shown robust growth, with significant increases in both written and earned premiums. The latest earnings call highlights a strategic push to expand market share and improve pricing competitiveness, evidenced by a 27% rise in personalized new business. However, challenges such as high catastrophe losses and retention issues could impact future profitability. Despite these hurdles, Allstate's focus on cost-cutting and efficiency improvements, alongside a strong reinsurance program, positions it well to navigate these challenges and sustain growth.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Allstate Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 1.46%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mix of strong revenue growth and net income with significant challenges from catastrophe losses and retention issues. The company showed a strategic focus on growth and efficiency but faces external challenges impacting profitability.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Revenues were $16.5 billion in the first quarter, up 7.8% compared to the first quarter of 2024.

Net Income and Return on Equity

Allstate generated net income of $566 million in the quarter and adjusted net income of $949 million, which is $3.53 per diluted share. Adjusted net income return on equity was 23.7% over the last 12 months.

New Business Growth

Personalized new business was 2.8 million items, a 27% increase over the prior year.

Expense Ratio Improvement

The adjusted expense ratio improved by 6.7 points through cost-cutting measures like eliminating outsourcing and digitizing work.

Protection Services Expansion

Allstate Protection Plans business has grown over four times since acquisition, now serving 162 million customers in 18 countries.

Reinsurance Program Benefits

Reinsurance recoveries of $1.1 billion were primarily due to the California wildfires.

Homeowners Insurance Growth

Homeowners policies grew by 2.5% over the prior year, demonstrating growth potential.

Negative Updates

Increased Combined Ratio

The combined ratio of 97.4 was 4.4 points above the prior year quarter, primarily due to $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses.

Catastrophe Losses

Gross catastrophe losses, including from California wildfires, were significantly higher than the first quarter of last year, more than three standard deviations above the mean.

Retention Challenges

Although new business increased, overall auto policies in force declined slightly due to lower retention.

Company Guidance

During Allstate's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong financial performance with revenues reaching $16.5 billion, reflecting a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Allstate achieved a net income of $566 million and an adjusted net income of $949 million, equating to $3.53 per diluted share. The adjusted net income return on equity was notably high at 23.7% over the past 12 months. The company outlined its strategy of increasing market share in personal Property-Liability and expanding protection services. In efforts to enhance customer value, Allstate improved its adjusted expense ratio by 6.7 points, enabling more competitive pricing. The Property-Liability segment showed positive momentum with a 27% increase in personalized new business, totaling 2.8 million items. The company also highlighted the completion of a $2 billion sale of its Employer Voluntary Benefits business and announced a quarterly dividend increase to $1 per share, along with a $1.5 billion share repurchase program.

Allstate Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Allstate demonstrates solid revenue growth and effective cash flow management, positioning the company well within the insurance industry. Profitability margins have faced some pressure, but the balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage. Continued focus on improving profitability will be crucial for sustaining long-term growth.

Income Statement

Positive

The company shows a solid revenue growth trend, evidenced by a 20.89% increase from 2023 to 2024 and a 1.87% rise into the TTM. Gross Profit Margin is strong at nearly 100%, indicating effective cost management. However, the decline in EBIT Margin from 9.71% in 2022 to 8.05% in the TTM reflects potential profitability pressure. Net Profit Margin also decreased, suggesting challenges in maintaining net income levels.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is 0.37, showing a manageable level of leverage. The Equity Ratio stands at 19.14%, suggesting a stable equity position. However, Return on Equity has been volatile, with negative ROE in 2022 and a rebound to 18.33% in the TTM, indicating fluctuating profitability.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Free Cash Flow has grown consistently, with a 14.5% increase from 2022 to 2023, and further growth into the TTM. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is strong, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is similarly healthy, supporting future growth and investment.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
65.32B	64.11B	57.09B	51.60B	50.65B	41.93B
	Gross Profit
14.81B	15.10B	7.67B	6.66B	14.01B	13.27B
	EBIT
5.42B	6.16B	31.00M	-1.50B	6.80B	7.12B
	EBITDA
5.97B	6.72B	735.00M	-648.00M	7.88B	7.81B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
4.04B	4.67B	-188.00M	-1.29B	1.61B	5.58B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.38B	5.24B	5.87B	4.91B	4.77B	7.12B
	Total Assets
115.16B	111.62B	103.36B	97.99B	99.44B	125.99B
	Total Debt
8.09B	8.09B	7.94B	7.96B	7.98B	7.83B
	Net Debt
7.25B	7.38B	7.22B	7.23B	7.21B	7.51B
	Total Liabilities
93.11B	90.25B	85.73B	80.63B	74.31B	95.77B
	Stockholders Equity
22.05B	21.44B	17.77B	17.49B	25.18B	30.22B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
8.97B	8.72B	3.96B	4.70B	4.77B	5.18B
	Operating Cash Flow
9.23B	8.93B	4.23B	5.12B	5.12B	5.49B
	Investing Cash Flow
-8.17B	-8.25B	-3.00B	-1.73B	510.00M	-3.44B
	Financing Cash Flow
-865.00M	-697.00M	-1.24B	-3.42B	-5.24B	-2.01B

Allstate Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price200.32

Price Trends

50DMA

199.07

Positive

100DMA

197.01

Positive

200DMA

193.26

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.11

Positive

RSI

46.65

Neutral

STOCH

17.82

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 200.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 204.77, above the 50-day MA of 199.07, and above the 200-day MA of 193.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALL.

Allstate Risk Analysis

Allstate disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allstate reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Allstate Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WRB	82 Outperform	$27.24B	16.65	20.73%	0.45%	11.39%	14.76%
CB	76 Outperform	$114.45B	13.75	13.40%	1.27%	9.09%	-7.55%
TRV	75 Outperform	$59.59B	14.32	16.05%	1.68%	9.60%	36.89%
ALL	74 Outperform	$52.01B	13.42	19.88%	2.04%	11.49%	219.86%
CINF	73 Outperform	$22.98B	16.04	10.97%	2.37%	2.44%	-38.76%
PGR	66 Neutral	$154.31B	17.72	34.34%	0.15%	20.74%	51.73%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$12.93B	9.81	7.84%	78.03%	12.20%	-7.74%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ALL

Allstate

200.32

46.23

30.00%

Chubb

289.29

32.32

12.58%

CINF

Cincinnati Financial

148.25

38.72

35.35%

PGR

Progressive

268.42

68.60

34.33%

TRV

Travelers Companies

265.95

63.52

31.38%

WRB

W. R. Berkley Corporation

73.79

22.94

45.11%

Allstate Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Allstate Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting on Governance

Neutral

Jun 4, 2025

On May 29, 2025, Allstate held its annual stockholders meeting, where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and financial oversight. Thirteen directors were elected for terms expiring at the 2026 meeting, and the compensation of named executives was approved by a majority vote. Additionally, Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accountant for 2025, reflecting continued confidence in their financial auditing capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALL) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allstate stock, see the ALL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Allstate Releases April 2025 Catastrophe Loss Report

Neutral

May 15, 2025

In April 2025, Allstate released its monthly report detailing estimated catastrophe losses and the number of policies in force. This announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational resilience in the face of catastrophic events.

The most recent analyst rating on (ALL) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Allstate stock, see the ALL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Allstate Releases March 2025 Catastrophe Loss Report

Neutral

Apr 17, 2025

In March 2025, Allstate released its monthly report detailing estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force, which is available on their investor website. This announcement provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational impacts, potentially affecting stakeholders’ perspectives on Allstate’s market positioning.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.