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Allstate
(NYSE:ALL)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$282.00
â–²(30.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/17/26
ALL scores well primarily on strong recent financial performance (profitability and cash generation) and very compelling valuation (low P/E), supported by a positive earnings call highlighting improved underwriting and significant shareholder returns. The score is moderated by historical volatility and the call’s key risk that recent underwriting strength is partly influenced by favorable prior-year reserve development, plus only moderately strong technical momentum.
Positive Factors
Underwriting Performance
Sustained low combined ratios indicate disciplined underwriting, rate adequacy and effective claims management. Over 2–6 months this drives durable margin expansion, improves capital generation and funds buybacks/reinvestment without relying on market gains.
Negative Factors
Reserve Development Volatility
Large prior-year reserve releases materially improved recent results but can mask underlying loss trends. Reliance on reserve development adds uncertainty to trend interpretation and capital planning, risking earnings reversals if loss recognition normalizes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Underwriting Performance
Sustained low combined ratios indicate disciplined underwriting, rate adequacy and effective claims management. Over 2–6 months this drives durable margin expansion, improves capital generation and funds buybacks/reinvestment without relying on market gains.
Read all positive factors
Allstate Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Policies In Force
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Indicates the total number of active insurance policies, reflecting customer base size and market penetration. A growing number suggests effective sales strategies and customer retention.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAllstate (ALL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$64.33B
Dividend Yield1.64%
Average Volume (3M)1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.5
Beta (1Y)0.40
Revenue Growth4.40%
EPS Growth209.62%
CountryUS
Employees53,300
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)45.90
Shares Outstanding257,420,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,810,092
30 Day Avg. Volume1,813,100
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio5.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$252.00Price Target Upside16.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)31.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$61.20B
Allstate Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a comprehensive suite of property, casualty, and other insurance offerings throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are structured across four primary ...
How the Company Makes Money
Allstate makes money primarily by underwriting insurance and investing the premiums it collects. (1) Underwriting (insurance operations): Customers pay premiums for coverage (e.g., auto, homeowners and other personal property-liability coverages)....
Allstate Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong quarter: revenue growth, nearly 10% higher investment income, materially improved underwriting performance (P-L combined ratio of 82%, underlying 80.3%), robust underwriting income ($2.7B), healthy policy growth and sizeable capital returns including an accelerated $4B repurchase program. Management also highlighted strategic wins — market share gains across many states, successful integration/expansion of protection services (SquareTrade), and growing investment portfolio book value. Counterbalancing items include concentrated favorable prior-year reserve development (2023–24), a higher homeowners expense ratio from cost reallocation, some segment-level profitability pressures (Protection Plans, Arity restructuring), and execution/uncertainty risks around AI rollout, equity allocation and macro exposures. On balance, the positive operating and capital-generation signals substantially outweigh the challenges, though they warrant continued monitoring.Positive Updates
Revenue and Investment Income Growth
Total revenues increased to $16.9 billion, up 3% year-over-year. Net investment income rose nearly 10% to $938 million (a $84 million increase versus prior year).
Negative Updates
Concentration of Favorable Prior-Year Reserve Development
Large favorable prior-year reserve releases were concentrated in 2023 and 2024 (analyst referenced ~$840 million net favorable PYD in auto), which improved reported combined ratios but introduces reserve-development volatility and uncertainty for trend interpretation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Investment Income Growth
Total revenues increased to $16.9 billion, up 3% year-over-year. Net investment income rose nearly 10% to $938 million (a $84 million increase versus prior year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized continued disciplined, data‑driven growth while sustaining attractive returns, anchored by Q1 results (total revenues $16.9B, +3%; investment income +9.8% to $938M; net income $2.4B; adjusted net income $2.8B or $10.65/share; P‑L underwriting income $2.7B). They reiterated targets to keep auto around mid‑90s and homeowners around low‑90s combined ratios while growing policies (total PIF +2.5%; auto +2.6%; homeowners +2.5%; auto PIF +4.3% in 29 states representing 57% of premiums; homeowners PIF +4.1% in 41 states), noted the Property‑Liability recorded combined ratio 82.0% (underlying 80.3%, a 2.8‑pt YoY improvement) and auto underlying ex‑reserve/cat of 89.5% (1.7 pts better YoY), disclosed ~ $840M net favorable prior‑year auto development (and revised 2023/2024 auto combined ratios to 95.4% and 90.0%), described portfolio strength (portfolio book value +24% [~$17B] since Q1‑24; LTM portfolio return 4.2%; performance portfolio 1‑yr 7.6%, 3‑yr 5.9%), confirmed rate actions in 39 states (net neutral), and outlined capital priorities: $881M returned to shareholders in Q1, completion of a $1.5B repurchase, launch of a $4B program with $3.6B remaining (~40% of holding‑co assets, ~7% of shares), plus continued reinvestment in the business and AI/expense efficiencies to fund growth into 2027–2028.Allstate Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
77
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 67.14B | 66.46B | 63.52B | 56.59B | 50.62B | 48.68B |
| Gross Profit | 26.74B | 22.09B | 14.50B | 7.17B | 5.68B | 12.03B |
| EBITDA | 16.37B | 14.04B | 6.72B | 735.00M | -648.00M | 7.88B |
| Net Income | 12.14B | 10.28B | 4.67B | -188.00M | -1.29B | 1.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 123.97B | 119.76B | 111.62B | 103.36B | 97.99B | 99.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.40B | 5.57B | 5.24B | 5.87B | 4.91B | 4.77B |
| Total Debt | 7.49B | 7.49B | 8.09B | 7.94B | 7.96B | 7.98B |
| Total Liabilities | 92.39B | 89.17B | 90.25B | 85.73B | 80.63B | 74.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 31.61B | 30.61B | 21.44B | 17.77B | 17.49B | 25.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.53B | 9.88B | 8.72B | 3.96B | 4.70B | 4.77B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.71B | 10.11B | 8.93B | 4.23B | 5.12B | 5.12B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.59B | -7.25B | -8.25B | -3.00B | -1.73B | 510.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.46B | -2.88B | -697.00M | -1.24B | -3.42B | -5.24B |
Allstate Technical Analysis
Positive
216.16
Price Trends
226.79
Positive
218.41
Positive
209.97
Positive
Market Momentum
6.97
Positive
63.24
Neutral
58.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 216.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 243.73, below the 50-day MA of 226.79, and above the 200-day MA of 209.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ALL.
Allstate Risk Analysis
Allstate disclosed 6 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Allstate reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Allstate Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $27.97B | 10.29 | 17.98% | 2.10% | 17.87% | 90.86% | |
83 Outperform | $64.33B | 5.53 | 42.71% | 1.91% | 4.40% | 209.62% | |
81 Outperform | $76.96B | 10.80 | 24.14% | 1.49% | 2.39% | 65.13% | |
77 Outperform | $136.59B | 12.38 | 15.65% | 1.22% | 8.26% | 35.89% | |
77 Outperform | $38.45B | 9.73 | 22.01% | 1.55% | 6.90% | 41.67% | |
75 Outperform | $121.51B | 10.76 | 45.08% | 2.20% | 10.49% | 12.21% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ALL
Allstate
253.73
64.62
34.17%
CB
Chubb
352.53
81.96
30.29%
CINF
Cincinnati Financial
180.36
34.63
23.76%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
140.50
21.22
17.79%
PGR
Progressive
212.23
-17.95
-7.80%
TRV
Travelers Companies
368.50
109.38
42.21%
Allstate Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Posts June Catastrophe Loss Transparency Update
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
In June 2026, Allstate issued its monthly update on estimated catastrophe losses, posting the information for investors on its dedicated website. The disclosure was furnished as an exhibit in a regulatory filing, underscoring the insurer’s p...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Allstate Appoints New Chief Financial Officer Christian Lown
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
Allstate announced that Christian M. Lown will join the company as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Allstate Corporation and Allstate Insurance Company, effective August 3, 2026. The move, disclosed in a July 14, 2026 press ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Issues May Catastrophe Loss Transparency Update
Neutral
Jun 18, 2026
In May 2026, Allstate issued its regular monthly update for investors detailing estimated catastrophe losses and policies in force, and made the information available on its investor relations website. By formally furnishing this data, the insurer...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Allstate Shareholders Back Board, Executive Pay at Meeting
Positive
May 27, 2026
Allstate held its annual stockholders meeting on May 22, 2026, where shareholders elected 11 directors to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 meeting, reaffirming the current board’s composition and governance structure. Investors also appro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Allstate Posts April Catastrophe Loss and Policy Update
Neutral
May 21, 2026
Allstate disclosed that its April 2026 monthly release, which provides estimates of catastrophe losses and policies in force, has been posted on its investor website for stakeholders. The company characterized this update as furnished rather than ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.