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OPAL Fuels
(NASDAQ:OPAL)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-9.50% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back primarily by financial risk (weak balance-sheet profile and persistent negative free cash flow) despite strong revenue growth. The latest earnings call was constructive (maintained guidance, strong EBITDA growth, solid liquidity and capacity pipeline), while technicals are neutral-to-slightly positive. Valuation looks less supportive given the ~35.6 P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Rapid top-line expansion indicates increasing RNG project output, customer reach and market adoption. If sustained, this growth can improve scale economics and strengthen OPAL’s position in renewable transportation fuels over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Weak Balance Sheet
Historically negative equity and very high leverage reduce financial flexibility and increase dependence on external funding. This can constrain project investment, raise financing risk and make execution more vulnerable if operating performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Rapid top-line expansion indicates increasing RNG project output, customer reach and market adoption. If sustained, this growth can improve scale economics and strengthen OPAL’s position in renewable transportation fuels over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
OPAL Fuels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOPAL Fuels (OPAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$386.21M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)198.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth3.38%
EPS Growth-124.91%
CountryUS
Employees331
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding30,357,544
10 Day Avg. Volume225,648
30 Day Avg. Volume198,551
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-5.14
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-1.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.20Price Target Upside-0.45% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$362.03M
OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
OPAL Fuels Inc. focuses on the creation and distribution of renewable natural gas (RNG), supplying it as an alternative vehicle fuel primarily for heavy and medium-duty commercial trucking fleets. Beyond merely providing fuel, the company also spe...
How the Company Makes Money
OPAL primarily makes money by producing and selling renewable natural gas (RNG) and by monetizing the environmental credits and attributes associated with RNG. Key revenue streams include: (1) RNG fuel sales: OPAL sells RNG as a transportation fue...
OPAL Fuels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive operational and financial trajectory: strong adjusted EBITDA growth (+40%), modest revenue growth (+4%), higher RNG production (+8% YoY), ample liquidity, and a visible pipeline of near-term capacity additions. Management emphasized large operating leverage and non-capex production improvement opportunities. Key negatives include a significant decline in the renewable power segment (≈-86% EBITDA), modestly underperforming production versus internal expectations this quarter, some project timing/interconnection risks, and policy/RIN uncertainty that could affect upside. Overall, the positives (profitability improvement, project pipeline, liquidity, and actionable operational initiatives) outweigh the lowlights, but monitoring execution on production improvements and policy/RIN developments remains important.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $23.1 million, up 40% year-over-year versus Q2 2025, driven by 45Z production tax credits, Fuel Station Services growth, and G&A cost savings.
Negative Updates
Renewable Power Segment Weakness and Impairment
Renewable Power segment adjusted EBITDA declined to $0.3 million from $2.2 million in the prior year (≈-86%), driven by lower production and pricing amid conversions of renewable power assets into RNG plants. A noncash impairment was recorded in connection with a renewable power project decommissioning for the CMS RNG conversion.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA of $23.1 million, up 40% year-over-year versus Q2 2025, driven by 45Z production tax credits, Fuel Station Services growth, and G&A cost savings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
OPAL said it is maintaining its full‑year 2026 guidance while expecting production and EBITDA to ramp in the second half driven by plant improvement initiatives and projects coming into service; in Q2 it reported adjusted EBITDA of $23.1M (+40% YoY) on consolidated revenue of $83.4M (+4%), RNG production of ~1.3M MMBtu (~8% YoY, roughly high‑50% utilization of 9.0M MMBtu nameplate), RNG fuel segment EBITDA of $18.6M (vs $13.3M), Fuel Station Services EBITDA of $12.5M (vs $10.9M), renewable power EBITDA of $0.3M (vs $2.2M), and G&A of $3.2M; management expects ~2.0M MMBtu of annual design capacity to come online over the next 12 months and ~3.0M MMBtu over 24 months (plus ~1.0M MMBtu recently released for GC), sees potential 5–10% upside from gas‑collection and availability improvements on its 9.0M MMBtu fleet (with most incremental volumes flowing to EBITDA), reported ~$0.30 discretionary free cash flow per share LTM, ended the quarter with $162.2M liquidity (including $91.4M cash, $19.3M available revolver, $51.6M undrawn preferred commitments), invested >$52M in H1 into projects/owned stations, and noted that landing at the upper end of the guide hinges primarily on stronger production and D3 RIN pricing (with planned Q3 SG&A increases already incorporated in the full‑year plan).OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 339.11M | 348.98M | 299.97M | 256.11M | 235.53M | 166.12M |
| Gross Profit | 94.05M | 106.18M | 100.12M | 72.21M | 72.74M | 51.06M |
| EBITDA | 32.07M | 34.43M | 45.51M | 150.74M | 53.31M | 58.24M |
| Net Income | 18.70M | 14.75M | 11.03M | 29.95M | 11.32M | 210.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.04B | 959.47M | 881.08M | 754.61M | 644.86M | 380.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 91.36M | 24.41M | 24.31M | 48.22M | 105.37M | 39.31M |
| Total Debt | 431.69M | 365.43M | 310.56M | 210.61M | 179.65M | 229.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 523.89M | 461.71M | 416.05M | 297.12M | 267.04M | 285.89M |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.35M | -12.93M | -148.45M | -478.81M | -800.60M | 14.00K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -46.48M | -34.24M | -94.21M | -75.56M | -132.76M | -70.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.53M | 36.50M | 33.03M | 38.27M | -1.35M | 18.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -104.91M | -77.32M | -134.55M | -74.15M | -184.03M | -117.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 124.72M | 41.56M | 83.50M | 5.90M | 220.55M | 125.01M |
OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis
Negative
2.21
Price Trends
2.18
Positive
2.23
Negative
2.27
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
47.31
Neutral
17.14
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.28, above the 50-day MA of 2.18, and below the 200-day MA of 2.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OPAL.
OPAL Fuels Risk Analysis
OPAL Fuels disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OPAL Fuels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
63 Neutral | $1.19B | 8.94 | 19.49% | 7.00% | -2.48% | 31.10% | |
62 Neutral | $227.77M | 16.11 | 11.73% | 3.91% | 13.83% | 3.21% | |
61 Neutral | $2.28B | 69.43 | 3.62% | ― | 25.17% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $2.13B | 16.51 | 8.34% | 3.81% | 4.41% | 19.03% | |
53 Neutral | $386.21M | -158.96 | 256.80% | ― | 3.38% | -124.91% | |
42 Neutral | $84.89M | -0.05 | -1737.94% | ― | -37.46% | -77.39% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OPAL
OPAL Fuels
2.13
-0.15
-6.58%
NWN
Northwest Gas
50.59
11.49
29.40%
RGCO
Rgc Resources
22.07
0.93
4.37%
SPH
Suburban Propane
17.61
0.31
1.78%
NFE
New Fortress Energy
0.30
-2.10
-87.54%
CTRI
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
21.78
1.50
7.40%
OPAL Fuels Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
OPAL Fuels Schedules Upcoming Q2 2026 Earnings Release
Neutral
Jul 28, 2026
On July 27, 2026, OPAL Fuels announced it would report its second-quarter 2026 earnings, covering the period ended June 30, 2026, before the market opens on Monday, August 10, 2026. The company also scheduled a conference call for 11:00 a.m. Easte...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
OPAL Fuels Stockholders Approve Directors and Auditor Slate
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 17, 2026, OPAL Fuels Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with 256,957,639 votes represented out of a total 265,823,034 available, confirming a quorum across its Class A, Class B and higher-vote Class D shares. Stockholders e...
Business Operations and Strategy
OPAL Fuels, GFL advance landfill RNG facilities expansion
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, OPAL Fuels and GFL Environmental announced they had advanced construction of two jointly owned renewable natural gas facilities at the Stones Throw Landfill in Tallapoosa County, Alabama, and the Grady Road Landfill in Polk County...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.