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OPAL Fuels (OPAL)
NASDAQ:OPAL
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OPAL Fuels
(NASDAQ:OPAL)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲( 20.00% Upside)
OPAL Fuels (OPAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$470.70M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)150.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)111.7
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth16.30%
EPS Growth-96.72%
CountryUS
Employees341
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength80
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.01
Shares Outstanding28,971,882
10 Day Avg. Volume201,499
30 Day Avg. Volume150,602
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.52
Price to Book (P/B)-0.42
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-0.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside60.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOPAL Fuels Inc. engages in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas for use as a vehicle fuel for heavy and medium-duty trucking fleets. It also designs, develops, constructs, operates, and services fueling stations for trucking fleets that use natural gas to displace diesel as transportation fuel. In addition, it offers design, development, and construction services for hydrogen fueling stations. Further, the company generates and sells renewable power to utilities. As of May 1, 2022, it owned and operated 24 biogas projects. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in White Plains, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyOPAL Fuels generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of renewable natural gas (RNG). The company captures methane emissions from landfills and agricultural waste, processes it into RNG, and then sells it to various markets, including transportation and commercial sectors. Revenue is also generated through the sale of renewable electricity and environmental credits, such as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits, which are earned through their RNG production and used by companies to meet regulatory compliance. Additionally, OPAL Fuels forms strategic partnerships with waste management companies and municipalities, further enhancing its ability to collect raw methane and expand its production capabilities, thereby increasing its revenue potential.
OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
OPAL Fuels shows revenue growth but faces profitability and financial stability challenges. The balance sheet indicates significant risks with negative equity, while cash flows show heavy investment outflows. Addressing profitability and equity issues is necessary to stabilize the financial position.Income Statement
OPAL Fuels has demonstrated revenue growth over recent years, with Total Revenue increasing from $256.1M in 2023 to $299.9M in 2024. However, the company's Gross Profit Margin shifted to 100% in 2024 due to a reporting anomaly where Gross Profit equals Total Revenue, likely indicating missing cost data. The Net Profit Margin decreased significantly, indicating increased expenses or operational inefficiencies despite revenue growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins show inconsistency due to fluctuating EBIT figures, signaling potential operational challenges.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals significant concerns, notably a negative Stockholders' Equity, which has worsened from -$478.8M in 2023 to $0 in 2024. Total Debt has been reduced to $0 in 2024, improving the Debt-to-Equity ratio but primarily due to negative equity, which remains a critical risk. The Equity Ratio is also negative, reflecting significant financial instability and potential solvency issues.30
Negative
Cash Flow
OPAL Fuels' cash flow statements indicate persistent negative Free Cash Flow, worsening from -$75.6M in 2023 to -$94.2M in 2024. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is positive, suggesting operational activities are generating cash, but substantial capital expenditures result in negative Free Cash Flow. This suggests the company is heavily investing, potentially in growth, but at the cost of short-term liquidity.42
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 299.97M | 256.11M | 235.53M | 166.12M | 117.71M | Gross Profit |
| 100.12M | 72.21M | 63.48M | 51.06M | 27.54M | EBIT |
| 21.22M | 7.04M | 9.51M | 11.03M | -3.37M | EBITDA |
| 45.51M | 152.89M | 53.13M | 21.68M | -12.19M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 11.03M | 29.95M | 3.39M | 31.91M | -29.92M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 24.31M | 48.22M | 105.37M | 39.31M | 12.82M | Total Assets |
| 881.08M | 754.61M | 644.86M | 380.84M | 169.46M | Total Debt |
| 310.56M | 210.61M | 179.65M | 229.10M | 100.78M | Net Debt |
| 286.25M | 172.26M | 139.26M | 189.79M | 87.96M | Total Liabilities |
| 416.05M | 297.12M | 267.04M | 285.89M | 139.00M | Stockholders Equity |
| -148.45M | -478.81M | -662.46M | 30.22M | -25.40M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -94.21M | -75.56M | -132.76M | -70.79M | -22.65M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 33.03M | 38.27M | -1.35M | 18.86M | 2.29M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -134.55M | -74.15M | -184.03M | -117.20M | -22.18M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 84.13M | 5.90M | 220.55M | 125.01M | 21.45M |
OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis
Positive
2.50
Price Trends
1.86
Positive
2.40
Positive
3.01
Negative
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
71.10
Negative
72.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.18, above the 50-day MA of 1.86, and below the 200-day MA of 3.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.10 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OPAL.
OPAL Fuels Risk Analysis
OPAL Fuels disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OPAL Fuels reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Failure to maintain effective internal controls in accordance with Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act could have a material adverse effect on our business and operating results. In addition, current and potential stockholders could lose confidence in our financial reporting, which could have a material adverse effect on the price of our Class A common stock. Q4, 2024
2.
Our increasing reliance on information technology and other systems subjects us to risks associated with cybersecurity. Cybersecurity incidents or our failure to maintain the security and integrity of Company, employee, associate, customer or third-party data could have a disruptive effect on our business and adversely affect our reputation and financial performance. Q4, 2024
3.
The Company may incur contractual obligations from the indemnification of third parties if tax authorities challenge the amount or availability of ITCs or related tax benefits that the Company is obligated to provide to such third parties under such contractual arrangements. Q4, 2024
OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.63B | 16.05 | 7.36% | 4.78% | 3.88% | 11.80% | |
68 Neutral | $215.00M | 16.20 | 11.60% | 3.88% | 9.74% | -1.29% | |
63 Neutral | $8.54B | 10.36 | 4.67% | 4.39% | 4.05% | -12.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.23B | 13.08 | 14.42% | 6.89% | 4.02% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | $470.70M | 111.73 | -8.53% | ― | 16.30% | -96.72% | |
54 Neutral | $769.08M | 11.07 | -28.47% | 15.32% | -15.03% | -201.87% | |
50 Neutral | $1.65B | 1,770.48 | 0.11% | ― | ― | ― |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
OPAL
OPAL Fuels
2.72
-2.10
-43.57%
NWN
Northwest Gas
40.76
6.22
18.01%
RGCO
Rgc Resources
20.85
1.42
7.31%
SPH
Suburban Propane
19.16
1.29
7.22%
NFE
New Fortress Energy
2.78
-22.00
-88.78%
CTRI
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
18.64
-7.76
-29.39%
OPAL Fuels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 3.73%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights OPAL Fuels' significant growth in EBITDA, revenue, and RNG production, demonstrating strong performance across its segments. However, challenges persist in regulatory uncertainties and adoption rates in heavy-duty trucking, alongside a decrease in renewable power segment revenue. Despite these obstacles, the company's liquidity and production guidance remain strong.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant EBITDA Growth
First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $20.1 million, over 30% higher compared to the same period last year.
Fuel Station Services Segment Performance
First quarter 2025 fuel station services segment EBITDA was approximately $12.5 million, 80% higher versus the first quarter of 2024.
Increase in RNG Fuel Production
RNG fuel production for the quarter was 1.1 million MMBtus, up nearly 40% versus the same period last year.
Revenue and Net Income Growth
Revenue for the quarter was $85 million compared to $64.9 million in the same period last year. Net income was $1.3 million, up from $700,000 in Q1 2024.
Strong Liquidity Position
Total liquidity was $240 million, including over $40 million in cash and cash equivalents, and more than $178 million of undrawn availability under the term credit facility.
Positive Outlook for RNG Production
Maintained 2025 RNG production guidance of 5 million MMBtus to 5.4 million MMBtus, a 37% increase versus 2024.
Negative Updates
Regulatory and Trade Policy Uncertainties
Uncertain macro and regulatory environments are causing delays in investment decisions among customers and partners.
Challenges in Heavy-Duty Trucking Adoption
No acceleration in the adoption of CNG/RNG for heavy-duty trucking due to delays in regulatory clarity and product availability.
Decrease in Equity Method Investments EBITDA
OPAL's share of adjusted EBITDA from equity method investments was $3.4 million for the quarter, down from $6.5 million in Q1 2024.
Renewable Power Segment Revenue Decline
Revenue from the renewable power segment was down due to terminated ISCC pathway contracts in the fourth quarter of last year.
Company Guidance
During the OPAL Fuels First Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. First quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $20.1 million, marking a 30% increase from the previous year, with the fuel station services segment contributing $12.5 million, an 80% rise from the same period last year. RNG fuel production was 1.1 million MMBtus, up 40% year-over-year. For the full year, OPAL Fuels maintained its guidance, expecting adjusted EBITDA between $90 million and $110 million and RNG production between 5.0 to 5.4 million MMBtus. The company also highlighted ongoing projects, including four landfill RNG projects under construction with a combined design capacity of 2.1 million MMBtus. These projects, along with a robust development pipeline, are expected to drive sequential quarterly RNG production growth. Despite some macro and regulatory uncertainties, OPAL Fuels remains optimistic about long-term growth potential, particularly with the introduction of new 15-liter engines and evolving regulatory support for RNG/CNG-powered heavy-duty trucking.OPAL Fuels Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kevin Fogarty to Leave OPAL Fuels Board
Neutral
Apr 25, 2025
On April 21, 2025, Kevin Fogarty informed OPAL Fuels Inc. that he will not seek re-election to the Board of Directors at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. The Board expressed gratitude for his service and noted that his decision was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.
Financial Disclosures
OPAL Fuels to Announce Q1 2025 Earnings Soon
Neutral
Apr 24, 2025
On April 24, 2025, OPAL Fuels Inc. announced it will release its earnings results for the first quarter of 2025 after market close on May 8, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for May 9, 2025. This announcement is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to keep stakeholders informed about its financial performance and strategic direction, which could impact its operations and market positioning.
Financial Disclosures
OPAL Fuels to Announce Q4 and Full-Year 2024 Results
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025
On February 27, 2025, OPAL Fuels Inc. announced it will release its earnings results for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2024, after market close on March 13, 2025. The company will host an earnings conference call on March 14, 2025, at 11:00 AM Eastern Time, providing stakeholders with insights into its financial performance.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.