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Suburban Propane
(NYSE:SPH)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$19.50
â–²(10.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (solid margins, positive TTM growth, and a notably de-risked balance sheet) and strong valuation support (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weaker technical positioning (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and only moderate, recently declining free cash flow conversion.
Positive Factors
Profitability and growth
Solid operating, EBITDA, and net margins indicate that SPH converts fuel distribution activity into meaningful earnings. The latest TTM revenue increase and improved net income provide evidence of current business momentum, supporting reinvestment and resilience over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility
Historical margin swings reduce confidence that current profitability will remain stable across reporting periods. Earnings can therefore be harder to forecast, and a weaker margin environment could reduce operating leverage, limit cash available for investment, and pressure the durability of returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability and growth
Solid operating, EBITDA, and net margins indicate that SPH converts fuel distribution activity into meaningful earnings. The latest TTM revenue increase and improved net income provide evidence of current business momentum, supporting reinvestment and resilience over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Suburban Propane (SPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.11B
Dividend Yield7.82%
Average Volume (3M)199.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.11
Revenue Growth-2.48%
EPS Growth31.10%
CountryUS
Employees3,266
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryOil & Gas Energy
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.97
Shares Outstanding66,712,390
10 Day Avg. Volume241,727
30 Day Avg. Volume199,457
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)2.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.84
P/FCF Ratio10.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.00Price Target Upside24.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.39B
Suburban Propane Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. is a nationwide marketer and distributor of a diverse array of energy-related products, specializing in propane, fuel oil and refined fuels. It serves approximately 1 million residential, commercial, industrial, and...
How the Company Makes Money
Suburban Propane makes money primarily by purchasing propane and other fuels in bulk and reselling them to end customers, earning a margin between its commodity acquisition costs (plus storage/transportation costs) and the delivered selling price....
Suburban Propane Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone driven by strong operational resilience in the heating season, debt reduction of over $64 million, improving RNG production (+16% sequential, +12% YoY) and recognition of $3.5 million in production tax credits. Management highlighted disciplined capital allocation, on-schedule RNG projects adding ~200,000 MMBtus annually, and maintained distributions with 2.2x coverage. Offsetting risks include flat quarter-over-quarter EBITDA, high U.S. propane inventories (+75% YoY) and a 23% decline in average wholesale propane prices, warm western weather that drove ~10% lower volumes in that region, hedge mark-to-market volatility, and still-elevated leverage (4.34x). Overall, the positive operational execution, balance sheet improvement, and RNG momentum outweigh the noted headwinds.Positive Updates
Solid Adjusted EBITDA and H1 Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $175.3 million (essentially flat YoY). Combined with Q1, adjusted EBITDA for the first half was $258.7 million, an increase of $8.4 million or 3.4% compared to the prior year first two quarters.
Negative Updates
Flat Quarter and Slight EPS Decline
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was flat YoY and adjusted net income per common unit was $2.09 versus $2.11 in the prior year second quarter (small decline in per-unit earnings).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Solid Adjusted EBITDA and H1 Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $175.3 million (essentially flat YoY). Combined with Q1, adjusted EBITDA for the first half was $258.7 million, an increase of $8.4 million or 3.4% compared to the prior year first two quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that its two RNG projects (Upstate New York digester and Columbus gas upgrade) remain on schedule for completion in the second half of fiscal 2026 and are expected to add roughly 200,000 MMBtus of annual RNG production, with PTC eligibility anticipated for the Upstate NY facility (the company recognized $3.5M of PTCs for Jan 2025–Mar 2026, including $2.0M catch‑up for FY2025 and $0.8M for Q1 FY2026); full‑year capital spending for the existing projects is estimated at $35–$40M (YTD RNG CapEx $19M; Q2 total CapEx $24.7M), and management reiterated a disciplined capital allocation strategy to use excess operating cash flow to pay down debt (repaid $64.3M in Q2, >$64M total), maintain ample revolver capacity, strengthen the balance sheet (trailing‑12‑month leverage improved to 4.34x from 4.54x), and support the $0.325 quarterly distribution (annualized $1.30, coverage 2.2x) while driving continued operational performance to sustain adjusted EBITDA (Q2 $175.3M; H1 $258.7M, +$8.4M or 3.4% Y/Y).Suburban Propane Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.39B | 1.43B | 1.33B | 1.43B | 1.50B | 1.29B |
| Gross Profit | 549.41M | 302.69M | 804.98M | 361.00M | 789.34M | 803.28M |
| EBITDA | 275.64M | 256.23M | 216.47M | 260.39M | 259.64M | 296.59M |
| Net Income | 130.66M | 106.57M | 74.17M | 123.75M | 139.71M | 122.79M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.36B | 2.30B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.10B | 2.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.03M | 3.71M | 3.22M | 3.51M | 4.10M | 5.81M |
| Total Debt | 1.33B | 1.33B | 1.35B | 1.33B | 1.21B | 1.25B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.64B | 1.70B | 1.73B | 1.72B | 1.61B | 1.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 713.02M | 598.57M | 547.06M | 546.36M | 497.53M | 425.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 125.36M | 114.30M | 101.16M | 180.29M | 176.19M | 196.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 250.01M | 186.26M | 160.59M | 225.24M | 220.55M | 226.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -165.79M | -128.25M | -81.64M | -170.64M | -94.44M | -34.08M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -76.68M | -66.74M | -72.50M | -44.63M | -127.82M | -189.81M |
Suburban Propane Technical Analysis
Negative
17.63
Price Trends
17.57
Negative
17.96
Negative
18.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
34.40
Neutral
16.18
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.13, above the 50-day MA of 17.57, and below the 200-day MA of 18.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.18 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SPH.
Suburban Propane Risk Analysis
Suburban Propane disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Suburban Propane reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Suburban Propane Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.11B | 8.44 | 19.49% | 7.82% | -2.48% | 31.10% | |
70 Outperform | $7.83B | 11.70 | 13.15% | 4.11% | -0.50% | 60.66% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $5.97B | 11.48 | 12.89% | 3.07% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
64 Neutral | $3.10B | 20.44 | 9.33% | 2.21% | 14.61% | 11.96% | |
61 Neutral | $4.56B | 8.59 | 15.87% | 4.27% | 4.12% | 93.82% | |
60 Neutral | $4.51B | 15.41 | 8.42% | 3.77% | -0.78% | 10.67% |
* Utilities Sector Average
SPH
Suburban Propane
16.62
-0.75
-4.30%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
128.77
-3.51
-2.65%
SR
Spire
77.21
-1.01
-1.29%
SWX
Southwest Gas
82.44
6.64
8.76%
UGI
UGI
36.51
4.66
14.62%
OGS
ONE Gas
71.80
-6.37
-8.15%
Suburban Propane Corporate Events
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Suburban Propane Declares Quarterly Distribution for Unitholders
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. announced that its Board of Supervisors declared a quarterly distribution of $0.325 per common unit for the fiscal third quarter ended June 27, 2026, equivalent to an annualized rate of $1.30 per c...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Suburban Propane Schedules Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Call
Neutral
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. announced it had scheduled its fiscal 2026 third quarter results conference call for Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Analysts, investors and other interested parties were invite...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.