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Northwest Gas
(NYSE:NWN)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$50.00
â–²(0.10% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/23/26
The score is anchored by stable utility profitability and a supportive earnings outlook (reaffirmed/upper-half guidance, SiEnergy growth, and constructive regulatory progress). Offsetting this are structurally weak free cash flow and high leverage, while technicals remain bearish with the stock below major moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is moderately supportive due to the ~4.1% dividend yield and mid-teens P/E.
Positive Factors
SiEnergy customer growth
Rapid SiEnergy customer expansion provides a durable growth engine beyond the mature Pacific Northwest utility base. The substantial future-meter backlog and expected double-digit annual growth can expand rate base, increase regulated revenue, and improve the contribution of newer businesses to consolidated earnings over several years.
Negative Factors
High leverage
NWN's elevated leverage makes the company more sensitive to interest rates, refinancing conditions, and the cost of funding its sizable infrastructure program. Limited balance-sheet flexibility can constrain capital allocation choices and increase the importance of maintaining regulatory recovery and reliable access to financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
SiEnergy customer growth
Rapid SiEnergy customer expansion provides a durable growth engine beyond the mature Pacific Northwest utility base. The substantial future-meter backlog and expected double-digit annual growth can expand rate base, increase regulated revenue, and improve the contribution of newer businesses to consolidated earnings over several years.
Read all positive factors
Northwest Gas Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows profitability across different business areas, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Shows profitability across different business areas, highlighting which segments drive earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNorthwest Gas (NWN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.08B
Dividend Yield3.98%
Average Volume (3M)284.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.1
Beta (1Y)0.10
Revenue Growth4.41%
EPS Growth19.03%
CountryUS
Employees1,619
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.06
Shares Outstanding42,093,536
10 Day Avg. Volume266,011
30 Day Avg. Volume284,233
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.46
Price to Book (P/B)1.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.48
P/FCF Ratio-9.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.68
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.50Price Target Upside5.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)3.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.36B
Northwest Gas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN) operates primarily through its subsidiary, Northwest Natural Gas Company, delivering regulated natural gas to a diverse clientele including residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation customers a...
How the Company Makes Money
NWN makes money primarily through (1) regulated utility revenues from delivering natural gas to customers and (2) additional revenues from its other regulated and non-regulated segments.
1) Regulated natural gas utility (core earnings driver)
- R...
Northwest Gas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive tone driven by strong SiEnergy growth, favorable regulatory outcomes (notably in Washington and progress in Oregon), a maturing Water platform with investment-grade financing, solid liquidity, and reaffirmed or improved guidance and long-term targets. Offsetting items include seasonal quarter results, declines in EPS for Northwest Natural Gas and Water driven by higher O&M, depreciation and financing costs, and a pending appeal on the MX3 permit. Overall the positives — particularly rapid customer growth at SiEnergy, constructive regulatory developments, strong liquidity and capital execution — outweigh the near-term operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Full-Year EPS Guidance Raised to Top Half of Range
Management now expects 2026 EPS to be in the top half of the $2.95 to $3.15 guidance range, driven by strong year-to-date performance and clarity on regulatory initiatives.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EPS Flat and Utility Seasonality
Reported consolidated EPS for the quarter was $0.01, flat to the prior year period, reflecting seasonality (majority of gas utility earnings in Q1 and Q4) and indicating limited near-term upside in a traditionally light quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year EPS Guidance Raised to Top Half of Range
Management now expects 2026 EPS to be in the top half of the $2.95 to $3.15 guidance range, driven by strong year-to-date performance and clarity on regulatory initiatives.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.95–$3.15 per share and now expects EPS to finish in the top half of that range (YTD EPS $2.33 through Q2; Q2 EPS $0.01), assuming continued customer growth, average weather and no material regulatory changes; they reiterated a long‑term earnings growth target of 4%–6% through 2030 (projected to rise to 5%–7% following MX3 Notice to Proceed), expect MX3 (a $300 million, 4–5 Bcf storage expansion with 25‑year contracts, 12.5% ROE and 50% equity) NTP by end‑2027 and in‑service in 2029, forecast 2026 capital expenditures of ~$500–$550 million funded largely by strong operating cash flow, about $150 million net long‑term debt and ~$40–$50 million of ATM equity (with ≈$628 million liquidity), expect SiEnergy and Water to contribute ~25% of EPS, SiEnergy customer growth of >15% (expecting ~15%–20% annually in Texas through 2030 with >260,000 future meters backlog), Northwest Natural Water 12‑month customer growth 3.4%, first‑half infrastructure investment >$165 million, Oregon ARM settlement revenue requirement $13.0 million (vs. $15.6 million original ask) effective Oct. 31, 2026, Washington rates effective Aug. 1 with a 9.5% ROE and 50/50 capital structure, O&M expected below plan, and a dividend payout target of 55%–65% with dividend increases contemplated as payout normalizes.Northwest Gas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.29B | 1.15B | 1.20B | 1.04B | 860.40M |
| Gross Profit | 583.96M | 510.06M | 397.61M | 423.87M | 341.23M | 329.12M |
| EBITDA | 489.70M | 470.56M | 348.09M | 346.02M | 301.26M | 264.09M |
| Net Income | 125.99M | 113.32M | 78.87M | 93.87M | 86.30M | 78.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.44B | 6.24B | 5.23B | 4.87B | 4.75B | 4.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.23M | 41.08M | 38.49M | 32.92M | 29.27M | 18.56M |
| Total Debt | 2.70B | 2.76B | 1.96B | 1.75B | 1.68B | 1.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.88B | 4.76B | 3.85B | 3.58B | 3.57B | 3.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.56B | 1.48B | 1.39B | 1.28B | 1.18B | 935.15M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -265.98M | -197.77M | -194.12M | -47.40M | -190.93M | -133.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 213.20M | 269.12M | 200.28M | 279.95M | 147.67M | 160.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -487.99M | -808.90M | -428.99M | -335.50M | -435.46M | -300.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 197.97M | 532.87M | 227.06M | 64.21M | 301.63M | 131.44M |
Northwest Gas Technical Analysis
Positive
49.95
Price Trends
48.67
Positive
49.22
Positive
49.54
Negative
Market Momentum
0.41
Negative
57.14
Neutral
83.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.51, above the 50-day MA of 48.67, and above the 200-day MA of 49.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWN.
Northwest Gas Risk Analysis
Northwest Gas disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Northwest Gas reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Northwest Gas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $28.65B | 19.97 | 9.67% | 2.36% | 6.45% | 15.84% | |
69 Neutral | $5.35B | 14.51 | 14.42% | 3.65% | 7.08% | -11.82% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $6.70B | 12.88 | 12.89% | 2.74% | -63.47% | 166.76% | |
60 Neutral | $4.87B | 16.62 | 8.42% | 3.50% | -0.78% | 10.67% | |
59 Neutral | $2.08B | 16.14 | 8.34% | 3.98% | 4.41% | 19.03% | |
58 Neutral | $5.05B | 9.51 | 15.87% | 3.86% | 4.12% | 93.82% |
* Utilities Sector Average
NWN
Northwest Gas
49.47
5.29
11.98%
ATO
Atmos Energy
169.53
1.76
1.05%
SR
Spire
85.50
2.00
2.40%
NJR
New Jersey Resources
52.77
10.11
23.70%
SWX
Southwest Gas
92.49
14.82
19.08%
OGS
ONE Gas
77.46
-0.48
-0.62%
Northwest Gas Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Northwest Gas Reaches Texas Rate Case Settlement Agreement
Positive
Sep 23, 2026
On September 23, 2026, Northwest Natural Holding Company reported that its Texas subsidiary SiEnergy and affiliated gas distribution entities had reached a settlement in their general rate case with the Railroad Commission of Texas staff and citie...
Private Placements and Financing
Northwest Gas Raises $120 Million Through Bond Issuance
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 3, 2026, NW Natural issued and sold $120 million of first mortgage bonds in two tranches to institutional investors, consisting of $60 million of 5.62% Series bonds due 2036 and $60 million of 6.26% Series bonds due 2056, under an exe...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Northwest Gas Wins Approval for Washington Rate Settlement
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On August 29, 2025, Northwest Natural Gas Company filed a general rate case with the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission under the state’s multi‑year rate plan framework. A settlement addressing all but one issue was sub...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.