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NatWest Group
(NYSE:NWG)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
â–¼(-4.61% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:10/30/26
NWG scores 63 primarily due to mid-range financial performance (strong profitability but uneven revenue and volatile cash flows). The latest earnings call was upbeat with maintained guidance, strong capital generation, and resilient credit, which supports the score. Valuation is a clear positive (low P/E and high dividend), while technical indicators are currently a headwind due to weak momentum versus key moving averages and a negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Broad-based customer and balance growth
Growth across lending, deposits, mortgages and wealth management indicates expanding customer relationships rather than reliance on one franchise. Broad-based balance growth supports recurring income generation, improves operating leverage, and strengthens NatWest’s competitive position across UK banking markets.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Repeated negative operating and free cash flow means reported earnings have not consistently translated into cash resources. That volatility reduces financial flexibility, can increase reliance on funding markets, and may constrain NatWest’s ability to fund growth or absorb unexpected operating and credit pressures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based customer and balance growth
Growth across lending, deposits, mortgages and wealth management indicates expanding customer relationships rather than reliance on one franchise. Broad-based balance growth supports recurring income generation, improves operating leverage, and strengthens NatWest’s competitive position across UK banking markets.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Income by Segment
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$61.41B
Dividend Yield6.1%
Average Volume (3M)4.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.1
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth6.60%
EPS Growth29.61%
CountryUS
Employees59,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.00
Shares Outstanding3,959,011,200
10 Day Avg. Volume5,036,522
30 Day Avg. Volume4,306,823
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.89
P/FCF Ratio4.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.28
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.60Price Target Upside25.07% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.04B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc is a leading financial institution that delivers a broad spectrum of banking and financial services to individual customers, businesses, corporations, and institutional clients across the United Kingdom and globally. The company'...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money mainly by earning income on the spread between what it earns on assets (such as loans and investment securities) and what it pays on funding (such as customer deposits and wholesale funding), plus fees and commissions fro...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported broad-based balance-sheet growth, rising income and earnings, improving operating leverage, high returns, strong capital generation, resilient credit performance, and maintained guidance. The main challenges were stable rather than expanding net interest margin, mortgage repricing, competitive deposit and funding dynamics, higher fourth-quarter costs, and regulatory and interest-rate uncertainties.Positive Updates
Broad-Based Customer Balance Growth
Customer assets and liabilities grew 14.2%, well above the target of more than 4%, marking the eighth consecutive year in which the group expects to deliver growth above 4%. Customer lending grew 7.7%, supported by disciplined, broad-based growth across all three businesses.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Margin Faces Multiple Offsets
Net interest margin was broadly stable at 250 basis points, with deposit margin expansion offset by mortgage repricing, lending mix, and the annual review of customer repayment habits. Management expects margin to remain broadly stable through 2027 rather than expand, with lower-margin lending, increased wholesale funding, and mix effects also identified as offsets.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Broad-Based Customer Balance Growth
Customer assets and liabilities grew 14.2%, well above the target of more than 4%, marking the eighth consecutive year in which the group expects to deliver growth above 4%. Customer lending grew 7.7%, supported by disciplined, broad-based growth across all three businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
2026 guidance remains unchanged, with full-year income, excluding notable items, of around GBP 17.9 billion, other operating expenses of around GBP 8.5 billion, an impairment rate of below 25 basis points, and capital generation before distributions and the impact of Evelyn Partners of more than 240 basis points in 2026; the group expects risk-weighted assets of around GBP 210 billion as at January 1, 2027, will continue to operate with a CET1 ratio of around 13%, and expects customer balance growth in line with greater than 4% CAL growth. For 2027, income from the structural hedge is expected to be more than GBP 1 billion higher versus 2026 and contribute over GBP 7 billion into the income line, margin is expected to be broadly stable, bank rate is expected to remain at 4% throughout 2027, and the five-year swap rate is expected to moderate to a 4% average for 2027; mortgage book margin is expected to settle around 60 basis points for the year, and impairment guidance remains 20-30 basis points on impairment through the cycle.NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 30.19B | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 17.56B | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 9.33B | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 6.35B | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 745.37B | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.19B | 98.23B | 106.93B | 116.47B | 154.98B | 261.23B |
| Total Debt | 76.19B | 71.83B | 65.92B | 60.07B | 55.32B | 58.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 701.54B | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 43.76B | 42.60B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 5.79B | 694.00M | -18.99B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 7.07B | 1.77B | -17.44B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -13.77B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -3.49B | -1.89B | -6.30B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Negative
18.87
Price Trends
17.96
Negative
17.83
Negative
16.72
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Positive
28.30
Positive
35.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.16, above the 50-day MA of 17.96, and above the 200-day MA of 16.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.30 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $105.46B | 16.95 | 15.93% | 0.85% | 0.06% | 1.65% | |
75 Outperform | $112.52B | 13.32 | 13.54% | 5.42% | -3.00% | 2.20% | |
71 Outperform | $90.46B | 12.12 | 12.61% | 3.25% | 7.11% | 21.33% | |
68 Neutral | $58.47B | 12.41 | 8.14% | 4.26% | -4.97% | 4.01% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $61.41B | 6.10 | 16.16% | 6.10% | 6.60% | 29.61% | |
62 Neutral | $71.68B | 9.56 | 13.09% | 4.30% | 1.06% | 75.52% |
* Financial Sector Average
NWG
NatWest Group
15.47
0.86
5.92%
TFC
Truist Financial
48.79
5.99
14.01%
HDB
Hdfc Bank
22.18
-13.50
-37.84%
IBN
Icici Bank
29.45
-0.64
-2.11%
LYG
Lloyds Banking
5.00
0.46
10.08%
PNC
PNC Financial
227.86
51.13
28.93%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
NatWest Group Discloses Executive Share Plan Purchase Under UK Market Abuse Rules
Oct 30, 2026
On 28 October 2026, NatWest Group’s Buy As You Earn Share Plan trustee purchased 24 ordinary shares for Chief Customer Operations Officer James Holian on the London Stock Exchange. The transaction, disclosed on 30 October 2026 under UK Mark...
NatWest Group Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital as of 30 October 2026
Oct 30, 2026
On 30 October 2026, NatWest Group plc reported its total voting rights and share capital, detailing the composition of its ordinary and preference shares as required under UK disclosure rules. The bank confirmed that it had 8,096,409,005 shares in...
NatWest Group Issues Risk-Focused Q3 2026 Form 6-K Disclosure
Oct 30, 2026
NatWest Group filed a Form 6-K on 30 October 2026 as a foreign private issuer, specifying that the report will be incorporated by reference into its existing U.S. registration statements. The filing reiterates that the group uses alternative perfo...
NatWest Group Posts Strong Q3 2026 Results with Broad-Based Growth and Capital Strength
Oct 30, 2026
NatWest Group reported a strong third-quarter 2026 performance, with attributable profit of £1.5 billion and a quarterly Return on Tangible Equity of 21.6%, driven by disciplined cost control, income diversification and robust capital generat...
NatWest Group Details October Share Buybacks and Voting Rights Update
Oct 23, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that between 19 and 23 October 2026 it repurchased several million of its own ordinary shares, with trades executed on the London Stock Exchange, Cboe Europe (CHIX) and BATS Europe (BATE) through UBS AG’s London b...
NatWest Group Raises $1 Billion in New Senior Notes Under U.S. Debt Programme
Oct 16, 2026
On October 16, 2026, NatWest Group filed a Form 6-K in the U.S. noting updated documentation for its SEC-registered debt program, including an underwriting agreement signed October 13 with a syndicate led by NatWest Markets Securities and major U....
NatWest Group Updates Investors on September Share Buyback and Voting Rights
Sep 4, 2026
NatWest Group plc disclosed that during the week leading up to 1 September 2026 it repurchased 803,367 ordinary shares from UBS AG’s London branch under its ongoing share buyback programme. The purchases, executed across the LSE, CHIX and BA...
NatWest Group Executives Disclose September Share Sales Under Pre-Arranged Plans
Sep 4, 2026
On 4 September 2026, NatWest Group disclosed that several senior executives executed share sales under previously announced irrevocable trading plans. On 2 September 2026, CEO Paul Thwaite, CFO Katie Murray and Retail CEO Solange Chamberlain sold ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.