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Banco Bilbao (BBVA) AI Stock Analysis
Banco Bilbao
(NYSE:BBVA)
The score is supported most by an upbeat earnings call (raised ROTE outlook, record earnings) and attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). This is offset by weaker financial quality signals from volatile cash flows and leverage, plus only mixed technical momentum (negative MACD and trading below key medium-term averages).
Banco Bilbao (BBVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $141.16B
- Dividend Yield
- 4.40%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.54M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 11.0
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.84
- Revenue Growth
- 14.69%
- EPS Growth
- 18.60%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 127,174
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Banks - Diversified
Banco Bilbao Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., established in Bilbao, Spain, in 1857, operates as a comprehensive global financial services provider through its various subsidiaries. The institution specializes in retail banking, wholesale banking, and asset...
How the Company Makes Money
BBVA primarily makes money through the spread between interest earned on assets (such as loans and debt securities) and interest paid on funding (such as customer deposits and wholesale funding), commonly referred to as net interest income. A major r...
Banco Bilbao Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive overall. BBVA reported record nine-month earnings, robust loan and core-revenue growth, high profitability, positive jaws, stable group asset quality, strong performance in Mexico, South America and CIB, early AI benefits, and confidence in raising or exceeding medium-term targets. The main challenges were the decline in CET1 during the quarter, higher wholesale deposit costs in Spain, weaker Spain trading income and mortgage market share, and elevated credit-risk trends in Turkey and Argentina. These negatives were explicitly acknowledged but were outweighed by the breadth and strength of the reported operating performance.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
BBVA maintained its positive outlook and said group-level ROTE guidance was improved to above 20%, described as about 21; it expects ROTE to further improve in 2027 and 2028 against a 22 average midterm commitment. Spain’s cost of risk guidance remains low 30s, with 33 basis points within full year guidance, and Spanish NII guidance remains low to mid-single-digit growth; Mexico’s lending-growth guidance remains around 10%, with a positive bias and the expectation that it will most likely beat guidance, while customer spread is expected to have reached the bottom; Turkey’s cost of risk could come slightly above 220 basis points, while net profit guidance remains around EUR 1 billion with a downward bias; South America’s cost of risk could come slightly above guidance of below 250 basis points. BBVA still targets an 11.5% to 12% CET1 ratio range, expects 30 to 40 basis points from SRTs this year and around 12 to 14 basis points in the fourth quarter, and reiterated EUR 36 billion of distributions to shareholders or excess capital above EUR 12 billion from EUR 49 billion of capital generation in 2025 to 2028, with EUR 13 billion dedicated to growth.
Banco Bilbao Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong reported profitability and improving ROE/ROTE are positives, but the financial profile is capped by meaningful leverage and highly unstable operating/free cash flow, including a sharply negative TTM outflow and revenue volatility.
Income Statement
78PositiveBalance Sheet
64PositiveCash Flow
39Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 41.88B | 36.93B | 35.48B | 58.19B | 40.37B | 31.32B |
| Gross Profit | 34.70B | 30.86B | -6.66B | 28.97B | 24.68B | 19.97B |
| EBITDA | 19.50B | 17.75B | 16.94B | 13.82B | 11.60B | 8.48B |
| Net Income | 11.58B | 10.51B | 10.05B | 8.02B | 6.36B | 4.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.00T | 859.58B | 772.40B | 775.56B | 712.09B | 662.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 322.23B | 275.94B | 153.57B | 177.95B | 178.37B | 134.96B |
| Total Debt | 110.87B | 81.84B | 144.43B | 179.35B | 114.64B | 116.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 923.62B | 797.78B | 712.39B | 720.29B | 661.57B | 614.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 57.57B | 57.36B | 55.65B | 51.70B | 46.90B | 43.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -98.47B | 13.16B | -19.39B | -2.54B | 21.28B | -2.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -97.37B | 14.97B | -18.19B | -721.00M | 23.72B | -1.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 92.23B | -1.40B | -1.42B | -1.42B | -3.91B | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.62B | -3.67B | -2.57B | -1.84B | -7.56B | -4.35B |
Banco Bilbao Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.22, below the 50-day MA of 26.97, and above the 200-day MA of 24.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBVA.
Banco Bilbao Risk Analysis
Banco Bilbao disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Banco Bilbao reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksBanco Bilbao Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
ING73Outperform
BBDO69Neutral- BBVA68Neutral
HSBC65Neutral
BCS60Neutral
SAN59Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ING | 73Outperform | $86.95B | 12.38 | 13.48% | 4.63% | 11.88% | 22.51% |
| BBDO | 69Neutral | $26.60B | 5.29 | 14.24% | 6.07% | 29.04% | 34.36% |
| BBVA | 68Neutral | $133.06B | 11.00 | 20.16% | 4.40% | 14.69% | 18.60% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| HSBC | 65Neutral | $290.74B | 11.47 | 14.16% | 4.19% | -1.12% | 62.58% |
| BCS | 60Neutral | $75.19B | 8.59 | 10.79% | 2.60% | 9.52% | 26.94% |
| SAN | 59Neutral | $167.45B | 9.67 | 15.04% | 2.28% | 21.16% | 27.88% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBVA | Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria | 25.47 | 5.55 | 27.87% | |
| BCS | Barclays Plc | 23.70 | 2.58 | 12.21% | |
| HSBC | HSBC Holdings plc | 89.37 | 20.52 | 29.80% | |
| ING | Ing Groep N.V. | 32.84 | 8.26 | 33.63% | |
| SAN | Banco Santander US | 12.07 | 1.96 | 19.40% | |
| BBDO | Banco Bradesco S.A. | 2.44 | -0.45 | -15.54% |
Banco Bilbao Corporate Events
BBVA Reports €239.7 Million in Second-Tranche Share Buyback Purchases
Between October 26 and November 2, 2026, BBVA purchased its own shares under the second tranche of its buyback program. The purchases totaled €239.69 million, representing approximately 23.97% of the tranche’s maximum cash amount and mark...
BBVA Files Form 6-K Detailing Nine-Month 2026 Results and Heightened Macroeconomic Risks
BBVA has filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the nine months ended September 30, 2026, providing an operating and financial review, capital information and unaudited condensed interim consolidated financial statement...
BBVA Posts Strong 3Q 2026 Earnings as Loans and Core Revenues Surge
BBVA reported its third-quarter 2026 earnings on October 29, highlighting another very strong quarter marked by excellent value creation and profitability. Management emphasized outstanding net profit, sustained core revenue growth from net interest...
BBVA Lifts Nine-Month 2026 Profit Above €9 Billion as Lending Surges and AI Strategy Advances
From January to September 2026, BBVA posted a record net attributable profit of €9.07 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year in current euros, supported by a 17% rise in recurring revenue and a 20.4% increase in lending in constant euros. The bank̵...
BBVA Reports Strong Asset and Profit Growth for January–September 2026
In its January–September 2026 report, BBVA posted strong year-on-year growth, with total assets rising 21.3% to €986.2bn and gross customer loans up 20.7% to €540.8bn as of September 30, 2026. Customer deposits and total customer fu...
BBVA Receives ECB Capital Requirements for 2027 After SREP Review
On October 26, 2026, BBVA disclosed that the European Central Bank has set new minimum capital requirements for the bank following the latest Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process. These requirements, effective from January 1, 2027, define capita...
BBVA Advances Second Tranche of Share Buyback With €151 Million Invested
BBVA disclosed on October 26, 2026, that it has continued executing the second tranche of its share buyback program, with trades in its own shares carried out between October 19 and October 23, 2026. The transactions are being managed by J.P. Morgan...
BBVA Nears Completion of First Tranche in €1 Billion-Scale Share Buyback
BBVA reported on September 21, 2026 that it is progressing with the first tranche of its share buyback program approved by the board on July 29, 2026, and executed under the oversight of HSBC Continental Europe. The program is being conducted in acco...
BBVA Raises $2.3 Billion in Senior Non‑Preferred Dollar Notes to Bolster Regulatory Funding
On September 3, 2026, BBVA filed a report in the United States detailing the issuance and sale of three series of U.S. dollar‑denominated senior non‑preferred notes. The offering comprises U.S.$1.0 billion of 4.977% fixed‑rate notes...
BBVA Nears Halfway Mark in First Tranche of 2026 Share Buyback
BBVA has provided an update on the first tranche of its share buyback program approved by the board on July 29, 2026, and formally communicated as inside information on July 30, 2026. Between August 24 and August 28, 2026, HSBC Continental Europe, ac...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026