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Banco Bilbao
(NYSE:BBVA)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
â–²(19.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and an improving leverage trend, tempered by notably inconsistent cash-flow generation. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is favorable with a moderate P/E and a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High profitability and margins
BBVA's durable high net margin (~27.7%) and substantial TTM net income indicate structurally strong earnings power across business lines. Persistent profitability supports internal capital generation, dividend capacity and reinvestment, and provides a buffer through economic cycles.
Negative Factors
Pronounced cash-flow volatility
Large swings in operating and free cash flow, including a ~73% TTM FCF drop and historical years with negative cash flow, reduce predictability of internal funding. This undermines confidence in sustained capital returns, reinvestment consistency, and increases reliance on external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and margins
BBVA's durable high net margin (~27.7%) and substantial TTM net income indicate structurally strong earnings power across business lines. Persistent profitability supports internal capital generation, dividend capacity and reinvestment, and provides a buffer through economic cycles.
Read all positive factors
Banco Bilbao (BBVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$155.42B
Dividend Yield3.86%
Average Volume (3M)1.34M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth-17.80%
EPS Growth14.92%
CountryUS
Employees127,174
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.81
Shares Outstanding5,581,204,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,020,881
30 Day Avg. Volume1,337,614
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio19.72
Price to Book (P/B)2.07
Price to Sales (P/S)3.21
P/FCF Ratio9.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.84Price Target Upside11.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$47.87B
Banco Bilbao Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., established in Bilbao, Spain, in 1857, operates as a comprehensive global financial services provider through its various subsidiaries. The institution specializes in retail banking, wholesale banking, and as...
How the Company Makes Money
BBVA makes money primarily by earning income from financial intermediation and fees across its banking and financial services activities.
1) Net interest income (core banking spread): A major revenue source is the difference between interest earn...
Banco Bilbao Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrays a strongly positive operational and financial performance for 2025: record profit, very strong loan and fee growth, best‑in‑class efficiency metrics, broad market share gains, large customer acquisition and robust country results (Spain, Mexico, South America, Rest of Business). Headwinds include spread compression from falling rates, higher RWAs from rapid growth, some country-specific one-offs (Turkey tax change) and above-inflation cost growth driven by investments and base effects. Management emphasizes disciplined capital deployment, continued shareholder returns (dividend and buyback), and confidence in meeting midterm targets, while noting sensitivities to macro (rates, inflation, FX) in certain markets.Positive Updates
Record Net Profit
Net attributable profit reached a record EUR 10.5 billion in 2025, up 4.5% year-over-year in current euros.
Negative Updates
Falling Interest Rates Impact
Lower interest rates in core markets (Spain and Mexico) weighed on customer spreads and margins; average customer spread declined c.41 basis points, requiring careful pricing and mix management.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Profit
Net attributable profit reached a record EUR 10.5 billion in 2025, up 4.5% year-over-year in current euros.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 should see continued strong activity-driven revenue and loan growth with group return on tangible equity around 20% (above 2025), a cost-to-income ratio below 40% (with a mid‑term ambition ~35% by 2028) and cost of risk broadly aligned with 2025 (group cost of risk ~139 bps in 2025); they expect solid NII and overall revenue growth (Mexico NII guided mid‑ to high single digits), sustained loan growth across geographies, and disciplined costs (Spain/Centre affected by base effects but underlying cost growth ~3–4%); capital targets remain to return excess above a 12% CET1 (CET1 was 13.75% pre‑distributions and 12.70% after the announced EUR 4bn buyback that reduces CET1 by ~105 bps), with a regular 2025 payout of EUR 5.2bn (50% payout, EUR 0.92/sh — EUR 0.60 final + EUR 0.32 already paid) and execution of the EUR 4bn extraordinary buyback (EUR 993m executed plus a EUR 1.5bn tranche in progress); management reiterated mid‑term financial targets (cumulative ~EUR 48bn net profits and ~EUR 36bn capital returned over 2025–28) and expects SRT/RWA relief of roughly 30–40 bps per year while gross income and core lines should continue to benefit from the strong 2025 momentum (2025: net attributable profit EUR 10.5bn, EPS EUR 1.78, gross income +16.3% constant euros with NII +13.9% and fees +14.6%, loans +16.2% constant euros, 11.5m gross new customers).Banco Bilbao Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 47.06B | 36.93B | 35.48B | 58.19B | 40.37B | 31.32B |
| Gross Profit | 32.43B | 30.86B | -6.66B | 28.97B | 24.68B | 19.97B |
| EBITDA | 18.16B | 17.75B | 16.94B | 13.82B | 11.60B | 8.48B |
| Net Income | 10.80B | 10.51B | 10.05B | 8.02B | 6.36B | 4.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 894.27B | 859.58B | 772.40B | 775.56B | 712.09B | 662.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 286.36B | 275.94B | 153.57B | 177.95B | 178.37B | 134.96B |
| Total Debt | 87.56B | 81.84B | 144.43B | 179.35B | 114.64B | 116.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 833.46B | 797.78B | 712.39B | 720.29B | 661.57B | 614.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 56.27B | 57.36B | 55.65B | 51.70B | 46.90B | 43.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.59B | 13.16B | -19.39B | -2.54B | 21.28B | -2.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.05B | 14.97B | -18.19B | -721.00M | 23.72B | -1.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.56B | -1.40B | -1.42B | -1.42B | -3.91B | -1.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.08B | -3.67B | -2.57B | -1.84B | -7.56B | -4.35B |
Banco Bilbao Technical Analysis
Positive
25.95
Price Trends
24.54
Positive
23.09
Positive
22.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.46
Positive
58.66
Neutral
64.36
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.93, above the 50-day MA of 24.54, and above the 200-day MA of 22.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.36 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBVA.
Banco Bilbao Risk Analysis
Banco Bilbao disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Banco Bilbao reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Banco Bilbao Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $155.42B | 12.54 | 19.49% | 4.15% | -17.80% | 14.92% | |
71 Outperform | $97.90B | 13.23 | 13.38% | 4.46% | 12.60% | 24.01% | |
68 Neutral | $253.64B | 16.75 | 11.49% | 2.65% | 4.63% | 34.99% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $92.50B | 10.46 | 10.11% | 1.61% | 12.33% | 22.63% | |
65 Neutral | $208.53B | 11.10 | 15.48% | 2.24% | 16.84% | 33.67% | |
63 Neutral | $227.14B | 14.04 | 8.39% | 1.82% | 3.91% | 37.25% |
* Financial Sector Average
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
27.95
11.55
70.45%
BCS
Barclays
27.50
8.56
45.16%
C
Citigroup
132.45
41.82
46.14%
ING
ING Groep
34.93
12.99
59.19%
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ
22.45
8.67
62.92%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
14.10
5.59
65.63%
Banco Bilbao Corporate Events
BBVA Prices $1.25 Billion 4.968% Senior Non-Preferred Notes Due 2031 in U.S. Market
May 8, 2026
BBVA has filed a Form 6-K in the United States detailing the issuance and sale of U.S.$1.25 billion of 4.968% Senior Non-Preferred Fixed Rate Notes due 2031. The transaction, documented through a pricing agreement dated April 30, 2026 and a supple...
BBVA Raises $1 Billion via New Contingent Convertible AT1 Issue
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, BBVA filed a report in the United States detailing the issuance and sale of $1 billion in Series 16 Non-Step-Up Non-Cumulative Contingent Convertible Perpetual Preferred Tier 1 Securities. These Additional Tier 1 instruments can co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.