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NextNav
(NASDAQ:NN)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-26.80% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance—declining small revenue, extreme negative margins, and ongoing cash burn—despite a currently improved balance sheet. Technicals add pressure with a downtrend (price below major moving averages and negative MACD), even though the stock appears oversold. The latest earnings call provides a meaningful positive offset via a strengthened liquidity position and notable technology/partnership progress, but regulatory timing uncertainty and continued losses keep the overall score below average.
Positive Factors
Strengthened liquidity and debt-free balance sheet
The strengthened balance sheet gives NextNav greater financial flexibility to fund network deployment, product development, and regulatory work without near-term debt service. Debt elimination also reduces refinancing pressure, although sustained operating losses could still consume this liquidity over time.
Negative Factors
Severe revenue and profitability weakness
Declining revenue combined with deeply negative gross and net margins shows that the current business has not yet reached economic scalability. Until revenue expands materially and unit economics improve, future growth initiatives may continue to require substantial investment while providing limited earnings support.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strengthened liquidity and debt-free balance sheet
The strengthened balance sheet gives NextNav greater financial flexibility to fund network deployment, product development, and regulatory work without near-term debt service. Debt elimination also reduces refinancing pressure, although sustained operating losses could still consume this liquidity over time.
Read all positive factors
NextNav (NN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.54
Revenue Growth-36.46%
EPS Growth36.22%
CountryUS
Employees103
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.81
Shares Outstanding168,809,900
10 Day Avg. Volume3,376,143
30 Day Avg. Volume2,653,645
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.17
Price to Book (P/B)-25.64
Price to Sales (P/S)483.47
P/FCF Ratio-43.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue580.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-324.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-23.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.00Price Target Upside46.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.19M
NextNav Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NextNav Inc. provides positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) solutions in the United States. The company offers Pinnacle, an accurate altitude service for public safety applications, including enhanced 911 for Verizon and national cellular netw...
How the Company Makes Money
NextNav’s revenue model is based on monetizing its 3D positioning capabilities through a mix of technology/platform offerings and related services. Key revenue streams include: (1) licensing and/or subscription-style fees for access to its vertica...
NextNav Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed substantial positive momentum: a transformed balance sheet with roughly $300M in available liquidity, elimination of cash debt, major technology validation (20 ns timing), and several strategic partnerships and regulatory endorsements (including SpaceX and IAFF). Counterbalancing this progress are a meaningful reported quarterly net loss driven by noncash warrant/derivative revaluations, ongoing FCC and interagency timing uncertainty, policy headwinds around the 900 MHz band for certain use cases, and unresolved international investment triggers. On balance, the company presented strong operational and financial restructuring achievements and clear regulatory progress, while important execution and timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Transformed Balance Sheet and Liquidity Boost
NextNav became debt-free and increased available liquidity to approximately $300 million, comprised of about $230 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026, plus $70 million of warrant exercise proceeds collected on July 1, 2026.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Loss and Noncash Volatility
Reported a net loss of approximately $33.8 million for the quarter. This included a noncash loss of roughly $32 million related to changes in fair value of derivative and warrants liabilities (sensitive to stock price volatility), only partially offset by a ~$21 million gain on debt extinguishment.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformed Balance Sheet and Liquidity Boost
NextNav became debt-free and increased available liquidity to approximately $300 million, comprised of about $230 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026, plus $70 million of warrant exercise proceeds collected on July 1, 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the Q2 2026 call management emphasized a strengthened financial position and operational milestones, citing available liquidity of roughly $300 million (about $230 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities as of June 30, 2026 plus $70 million of warrant exercise proceeds collected July 1, 2026), conversion of all debt into 15.2 million shares (debt‑free), exercise of ~14.8 million public SPAC warrants that generated nearly $170 million, a Q2 non‑cash loss of approximately $32 million from changes in fair value of derivative and warrant liabilities partially offset by a ~$21 million gain on debt extinguishment, resulting in a net loss of about $33.8 million; operationally they demonstrated ~20 nanoseconds of timing accuracy on the 5G PNT network, announced partnerships and pilots (e.g., Safran, Tiami, device partner, Santa Clara pilot), and reiterated FCC process progress (draft NPRM in interagency/OIRA review) but gave no firm NPRM timing.NextNav Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.98M | 4.57M | 5.67M | 3.86M | 3.93M | 763.00K |
| Gross Profit | -7.11M | -11.72M | -5.11M | -8.88M | -7.88M | -17.63M |
| EBITDA | -97.99M | -168.86M | -87.07M | -63.03M | -60.96M | -124.99M |
| Net Income | -111.86M | -189.25M | -101.88M | -71.73M | -40.12M | -144.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 389.05M | 248.09M | 161.74M | 162.16M | 123.79M | 136.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 228.84M | 152.14M | 80.11M | 85.83M | 55.45M | 100.08M |
| Total Debt | 13.16M | 288.60M | 71.44M | 66.11M | 7.82M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 54.55M | 334.33M | 111.62M | 82.06M | 19.92M | 36.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 334.50M | -86.23M | 50.12M | 78.73M | 100.02M | 99.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -53.47M | -50.80M | -38.36M | -38.19M | -40.67M | -49.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -53.06M | -50.74M | -38.01M | -35.44M | -37.09M | -47.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.14M | -64.55M | -39.47M | 1.07M | -15.74M | -1.28M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 103.33M | 120.48M | 35.10M | 68.98M | 43.00K | 135.64M |
NextNav Technical Analysis
Negative
15.71
Price Trends
15.35
Negative
16.61
Negative
16.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.81
Positive
36.28
Neutral
24.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.10, above the 50-day MA of 15.35, and below the 200-day MA of 16.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NN.
NextNav Risk Analysis
NextNav disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NextNav reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NextNav Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $24.33B | 256.93 | 6.21% | ― | 29.50% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $362.41M | -19.51 | -3.92% | ― | 15.14% | 52.80% | |
48 Neutral | $2.08B | -15.16 | -328.55% | ― | -36.46% | 36.22% | |
43 Neutral | $46.41M | -2.02 | -59.05% | ― | 9.78% | 69.23% | |
41 Neutral | $335.03M | -0.39 | 2729.14% | ― | ― | -1768.27% |
* Technology Sector Average
NN
NextNav
12.35
-1.09
-8.11%
AIOT
Powerfleet
2.70
-2.44
-47.47%
REKR
Rekor Systems
0.34
-1.74
-83.80%
IOT
Samsara
41.55
3.99
10.62%
KDK
Kodiak AI
1.67
-7.58
-81.95%
EXYN
Exyn Technologies, Inc.
2.38
-2.82
-54.23%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.