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Vivid Seats (SEAT)
NASDAQ:SEAT
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Vivid Seats
(NASDAQ:SEAT)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲( 38.12% Upside)
Positive Factors
Customer Engagement
Game Center continues to cultivate brand awareness and affinity, with the in-app feature supporting a 55% improvement in repeat rate for new customers acquired and a 35% increase in GOV for new customers that had interacted with Game Center.
Financial Strength
Vivid Seats has over $200 million in cash and a share buyback program, which may support the stock during challenging times.
Valuation
Analyst maintains a Buy rating based on valuation after a significant share price decline and management's track record of generating positive economics.
Negative Factors
Competitive Pressure
The intense competitive backdrop the company has been highlighting for several quarters remained a significant headwind, with a key competitor continuing to lean heavily into performance marketing channels.
Financial Performance
Vivid Seats reported soft results, with both total orders and Marketplace GOV declining ~20% y/y and coming in below expectations, with revenue and profitability also below consensus.
Market Share Decline
Vivid Seats experienced a 20% decline in market share, likely due to increased competition from Stubhub.
Vivid Seats (SEAT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$372.99M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.3
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth0.82%
EPS Growth-102.72%
CountryUS
Employees768
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength89
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.05
Shares Outstanding129,847,560
10 Day Avg. Volume1,684,993
30 Day Avg. Volume2,284,417
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.91
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio5.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.92Price Target Upside61.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
Vivid Seats Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVivid Seats Inc. operates as an online secondary marketplace for tickets in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Marketplace and Resale. The Marketplace segment acts as an intermediary between event ticket buyers and sellers; processes ticket sales on its website and mobile applications through its distribution partners; and sells tickets for live sports, concerts, and theater shows, and other live events. This segment offers Skybox, a proprietary enterprise resource planning tool that helps ticket sellers manage ticket inventories, adjust pricing, and fulfill orders across multiple ticket resale marketplaces. The Resale segment acquires tickets to resell on secondary ticket marketplaces; and provides internal research and development support for Skybox and to deliver seller software and tools. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
How the Company Makes MoneyVivid Seats generates revenue primarily through service fees charged on ticket sales conducted via its platform. These fees are collected from both buyers and sellers, with the percentage varying based on the event and ticket type. The company also benefits from partnerships with event organizers, promoters, and venues, which can provide exclusive ticket access or promotional opportunities. Additionally, Vivid Seats may earn revenue from advertising and marketing services offered to event organizers looking to boost ticket sales through targeted campaigns on the platform.
Vivid Seats Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vivid Seats demonstrates strong revenue growth and a recovery in equity, highlighting resilience and a positive trajectory. However, the decline in profit margins and cash flow generation indicates potential challenges in cost management and liquidity. The balance sheet shows improved financial stability, but past negative equity and leverage remain areas to monitor. Overall, while the company shows promising growth, there are concerns regarding profitability and cash flow sustainability.Income Statement
Vivid Seats has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase from $712.9 million in 2023 to $775.6 million in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 8.8%. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 73.98% in 2024, slightly lower than the previous year. However, the net profit margin has declined significantly from 10.45% in 2023 to just 1.21% in 2024, suggesting rising costs or other profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company has improved its equity position, with stockholders' equity rising to $261.1 million in 2024, a significant recovery from negative equity in previous years. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved due to reduced debt levels and increased equity, but it still indicates moderate leverage. The equity ratio has improved to 15.96%, showing a stronger asset base supported by equity. However, the company had a history of negative equity, which may still pose a risk.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has decreased significantly from $147.3 million in 2023 to $53.9 million in 2024, which could impact liquidity if the trend continues. Free cash flow growth is negative compared to the previous year, dropping to $49.7 million in 2024 from $134.5 million in 2023. The company maintains a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating operational cash generation exceeding net income.68
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 775.59M | 712.88M | 600.27M | 443.04M | 35.08M | Gross Profit |
| 573.73M | 530.70M | 459.77M | 352.42M | 10.39M | EBIT |
| 42.23M | 81.34M | 78.11M | 76.57M | -142.18M | EBITDA |
| 91.83M | 102.44M | 91.95M | 41.68M | -668.46M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 9.43M | 74.54M | 70.78M | -19.13M | -831.67M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 243.48M | 125.48M | 251.54M | 489.53M | 285.34M | Total Assets |
| 1.64B | 1.55B | 1.15B | 1.41B | 1.16B | Total Debt |
| 407.64M | 284.78M | 282.56M | 460.13M | 877.32M | Net Debt |
| 164.16M | 159.30M | 31.02M | -29.40M | 591.98M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.02B | 963.34M | 671.27M | 983.46M | 1.43B | Stockholders Equity |
| 261.11M | 105.02M | -382.70M | -860.68M | -271.78M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 49.70M | 134.54M | -1.03M | 210.28M | -41.50M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 53.92M | 147.32M | 14.38M | 219.93M | -33.89M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -26.74M | -225.64M | -15.41M | -9.35M | -7.61M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 86.08M | -43.43M | -236.48M | -6.11M | 245.54M |
Vivid Seats Technical Analysis
Negative
1.81
Price Trends
2.51
Negative
3.42
Negative
3.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Positive
36.26
Neutral
9.88
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEAT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.17, below the 50-day MA of 2.51, and below the 200-day MA of 3.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SEAT.
Vivid Seats Risk Analysis
Vivid Seats disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vivid Seats reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
The interests of Hoya Topco, which exerts significant influence over us, may conflict with those of us or our other stockholders. Q4, 2024
2.
We may be adversely affected if our information technology systems, or those of third parties with whom we conduct business, are compromised. Q4, 2024
3.
We are subject to extensive governmental regulation, and we may be adversely affected if we fail to comply with applicable laws and regulations. Q4, 2024
Vivid Seats Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.55B | 23.57 | 9.18% | 4.49% | 26.71% | -23.67% | |
77 Outperform | $2.39B | 17.99 | 19.74% | ― | 5.93% | 29.17% | |
61 Neutral | $14.08B | 5.95 | -4.18% | 3.68% | 2.79% | -36.29% | |
60 Neutral | $1.07B | 35.54 | -90.27% | ― | -5.76% | 21.27% | |
57 Neutral | $532.33M | ― | -5.28% | ― | -7.89% | -192.35% | |
52 Neutral | $372.99M | 25.25 | -1.00% | ― | 0.82% | -102.72% | |
44 Neutral | $562.41M | ― | -18.77% | ― | 12.01% | 35.71% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SEAT
Vivid Seats
1.81
-3.05
-62.76%
GRPN
Groupon
26.75
11.03
70.17%
YELP
Yelp
37.40
1.09
3.00%
OPRA
Opera
17.37
3.38
24.16%
KIND
Nextdoor Holdings
1.47
-1.14
-43.68%
TTGT
TechTarget, Inc.
7.45
-17.02
-69.55%
Vivid Seats Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -35.13%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted strategic partnerships, technological investments, and international expansion. However, significant challenges include a decline in marketplace GOV and revenues, suspension of financial guidance, negative cash generation, and competitive pressures in marketing channels. These factors contribute to a cautious outlook despite some positive strategic developments.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Repeat Customer Engagement
Repeat rate for new customers who interacted with Game Center was 55% higher, and GOV was 35% higher for these customers.
Key Strategic Partnerships
Partnership with United Airlines to allow customers to earn miles for purchasing tickets through Vivid Seats, expected to contribute in the second half of 2025.
Product and Technology Investments
Focus on releasing fan-focused experiential enhancements in the app to optimize discoverability and improve navigation and personalization.
International Expansion Efforts
Continued development of the internationalization of the platform following the European launch in the fourth quarter.
Negative Updates
Decline in Marketplace GOV and Revenues
Marketplace GOV was down 20% year-over-year, and revenues decreased by 14% compared to Q1 2024.
Suspension of Financial Guidance
Suspended guidance for 2025 due to competitive intensity, economic variability, and atypical changes across the marketing landscape.
Negative Cash Generation
Negative cash generation due to seasonal items and continued pressure on working capital from organic volume declines.
Challenges in Performance Marketing
Unexpected changes in the Google channel and continued competitive intensity in performance marketing channels.
Adjusted EBITDA Decline
Adjusted EBITDA was $22 million, down from $39 million in the prior year, due to lower volume and higher marketing expenses.
Company Guidance
During the Vivid Seats First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, management provided detailed guidance and insights into their performance and strategic priorities. The company reported a marketplace Gross Order Value (GOV) of $820 million, revenues of $164 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $22 million, noting that these figures represented a challenging year-over-year comparison with a 20% decline in GOV and a 14% drop in revenues. Adjusted EBITDA also decreased from $39 million in the prior year. Management emphasized their focus on strategic investments in marketing and technology to drive long-term growth, highlighting enhancements to their app aimed at improving customer experience and engagement. They also mentioned ongoing investments in their Game Center, which positively influenced repeat rates and GOV for new customers. On the international front, Vivid Seats is expanding their Total Addressable Market (TAM) through internationalization efforts following their European launch. However, they suspended guidance for the remainder of 2025 due to economic uncertainties, competitive pressures, and variability in the performance marketing landscape, noting a particularly broad range of potential outcomes. The call also addressed changes in performance marketing dynamics and highlighted a new partnership with United Airlines as a strategic advantage expected to contribute in the second half of 2025.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.