Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $708.70M
• Dividend Yield: 13.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 269.07K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: -8.32%
• EPS Growth: -33.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 49,387,066
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 240,592
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 269,074
• PEG Ratio: -1.48
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.94
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.26
• 1Y Price Target: $16.50
• Price Target Upside: 14.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.86
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $210.11M

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(11.50% Upside)

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. demonstrates strong financial performance and attractive valuation, making it appealing for value and income investors. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential bearish momentum, and recent earnings highlight operational challenges that need addressing.

Positive Factors

Strong Asset Growth

Strong asset growth indicates effective portfolio management and expanding market presence, which can enhance long-term revenue potential and stability.

Healthy Investment Portfolio

A low level of nonaccruals suggests strong credit quality and risk management, supporting sustainable income generation and financial health.

Optimistic Outlook for Private Credit

A positive outlook for private credit suggests growth opportunities and potential for increased market share, benefiting long-term strategic positioning.

Negative Factors

Decline in Net Investment Income

A decline in net investment income can indicate challenges in maintaining profitability, potentially affecting future earnings and dividend sustainability.

Decreased Originations

Reduced originations may signal a slowdown in business activity, impacting revenue growth and market expansion efforts over the medium term.

Negative Cash Flow Trends

Negative cash flow trends highlight potential liquidity challenges, which could constrain operational flexibility and investment capacity.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (“BDC”) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively “Senior Loans”). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively “Junior Capital Investments”).

How the Company Makes Money

NCDL generates revenue primarily through interest income from the loans it extends to middle-market companies, which is its main revenue stream. The company typically structures these loans as secured debt, often with higher yields than traditional fixed-income investments, taking advantage of the risk-return profile of the middle-market lending space. Additionally, NCDL may earn fees from loan origination, structuring, and management services, further enhancing its revenue. The company's partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms can also play a significant role in its earnings by providing access to larger capital pools and diversified investment opportunities. The performance of its portfolio is influenced by economic conditions, borrower performance, and interest rate fluctuations, all of which are critical factors in determining NCDL's profitability.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. shows strong revenue growth and profitability with a robust balance sheet. However, recent negative cash flow trends highlight potential liquidity challenges, requiring careful management of cash resources.

Income Statement

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, increasing from $13.7 million in 2020 to $224 million in 2024. The gross profit and EBIT margins are notably high, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the absence of EBITDA data in the latest period limits a complete profitability analysis.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is solid, with total assets growing significantly from $353 million in 2020 to $2.14 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved substantially, with no debt reported in the latest period, indicating financial stability. High stockholders' equity provides a strong equity ratio, though the rapid increase in liabilities in recent years poses a potential risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has shown fluctuations, with a significant negative operating cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow has also deteriorated, moving from positive in prior years to negative in the most recent period. This indicates potential liquidity challenges, despite historically positive cash flow metrics.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	177.69M	210.84M	153.80M	82.19M	37.11M	13.71M
Gross Profit	139.47M	111.42M	141.85M	73.80M	32.60M	11.79M
EBITDA	122.08M	116.48M	137.14M	42.98M	37.09M	6.63M
Net Income	91.54M	116.32M	75.94M	17.29M	27.27M	2.15M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.04B	2.14B	1.73B	1.25B	820.92M	353.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.30M	43.25M	67.44M	39.32M	35.19M	12.61M
Total Debt	1.11B	1.11B	943.94M	699.77M	2.65M	188.28M
Total Liabilities	1.16B	1.17B	982.98M	287.00K	193.00K	195.82M
Stockholders Equity	881.49M	970.32M	747.88M	1.25B	820.92M	157.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	177.58M	-297.20M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Operating Cash Flow	177.58M	-297.20M	73.05M	25.14M	41.32M	7.52M
Investing Cash Flow	101.52M	-433.62M	-442.57M	-452.99M	-429.62M	-159.25M
Financing Cash Flow	-200.60M	273.06M	397.65M	431.93M	411.70M	161.33M

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.05, below the 50-day MA of 14.40, and below the 200-day MA of 15.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NCDL	75 Outperform	$708.70M	9.34	8.46%	13.94%	-8.32%	-33.94%
SLRC	71 Outperform	$838.50M	9.44	8.95%	10.67%	5.87%	-12.64%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FDUS	65 Neutral	$729.18M	8.93	11.80%	10.97%	-14.09%	-27.46%
CCAP	65 Neutral	$525.53M	11.90	5.98%	13.05%	-7.13%	-56.63%
GAIN	64 Neutral	$527.04M	6.37	16.54%	10.88%	33.75%	6.20%
TCPC	58 Neutral	$472.80M	―	-1.48%	23.56%	-48.53%	73.29%

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events

Nuveen Churchill’s Earnings Call: A Balanced Outlook

The recent earnings call of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. painted a mixed picture for the company. While there were positive aspects such as robust asset growth and a healthy, diversified portfolio, challenges like a decline in net investment income and increased nonaccruals tempered the optimism. The sentiment expressed during the call was ultimately neutral, balancing the positives with the negatives.

Nuveen Churchill Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net investment income of $0.43 per share and a net asset value per share of $17.85. The company declared a fourth quarter distribution of $0.45 per share, maintaining a strong portfolio with a fair value of $2.0 billion across 213 companies. Despite a slight decrease in investment income compared to the previous year, NCDL remains well-positioned with a diversified portfolio and strong capital structure, focusing on high-quality assets and risk-adjusted returns for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCDL) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock, see the NCDL Stock Forecast page.

Nuveen Churchill’s Earnings Call Highlights Resilience

The recent earnings call for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) conveyed a generally positive sentiment, highlighting strong net investment income, a robust investment portfolio, and high-quality deal flow. Despite facing a decline in gross originations and market volatility, the company successfully completed a share repurchase program and maintained low nonaccrual rates, indicating a stable and resilient financial position.

Nuveen Churchill Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 6, 2025, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025. The company achieved a net investment income of $0.46 per share, despite a net realized and unrealized loss of $0.14 per share. The net asset value per share slightly decreased to $17.92 from $17.96 in the previous quarter. The company declared a third quarter regular distribution of $0.45 per share. The portfolio remains robust with a low non-accrual rate and significant liquidity, positioning the company to capitalize on investment opportunities. The company completed a $100 million share repurchase program and maintains a strong financial condition with over $300 million in liquidity and no near-term debt maturities.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCDL) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. stock, see the NCDL Stock Forecast page.