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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
(NYSE:NCDL)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$14.00
â–²(15.42% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
Overall score is driven primarily by strong profitability/cash generation and an attractive P/E plus very high dividend yield. These positives are tempered by leverage-related risk and mixed recent operating/credit signals from the latest call (NAV dip, higher nonaccruals/watch list, and muted near-term deployment), while technical indicators remain broadly neutral to slightly soft.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
NCDL has generated consistently positive operating cash flow and strong cash conversion (free cash flow equals operating cash flow historically). This durable cash generation underpins the company’s ability to cover distributions, fund reinvestment, and absorb temporary mark-to-market volatility without immediate liquidity strain.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
NCDL operates with meaningful leverage typical of lending BDCs; current gross/net debt-to-equity near the upper target range amplifies NAV and earnings sensitivity to credit losses or rate moves. Elevated leverage limits flexibility and raises the bar for asset performance to sustain distributions through stress periods.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
NCDL has generated consistently positive operating cash flow and strong cash conversion (free cash flow equals operating cash flow historically). This durable cash generation underpins the company’s ability to cover distributions, fund reinvestment, and absorb temporary mark-to-market volatility without immediate liquidity strain.
Read all positive factors
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$614.38M
Dividend Yield14.37%
Average Volume (3M)189.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth-11.34%
EPS Growth-48.35%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.95
Shares Outstanding49,387,066
10 Day Avg. Volume166,263
30 Day Avg. Volume189,382
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.26
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)3.32
P/FCF Ratio3.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.80Price Target Upside13.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$182.62M
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL), initially formed as a Delaware limited liability company on March 13, 2018, and subsequently restructured into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019, prior to commencing its business activities, oper...
How the Company Makes Money
NCDL makes money primarily from investment income generated by its portfolio of private credit investments. The core revenue stream is interest income earned on floating-rate and/or fixed-rate loans (typically senior secured) made to portfolio com...
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but generally stable picture: operating performance remained resilient with net investment income covering the base dividend, distribution continuity, strong platform-level deal activity, conservative portfolio construction and proactive capital-structure actions (CLO redemption, unsecured note tap, maintained cost of debt and ratings). Offsetting these positives were meaningful declines in NCDL's quarterly originations and fundings, a modest NAV and portfolio fair value decline, realized/unrealized losses that weighed on GAAP earnings, and a rise in nonaccruals and the watch list. Management characterized several adverse items as idiosyncratic and emphasized the strength of the Churchill platform and the accretive JV, but near-term deployment activity at NCDL was muted.Positive Updates
Net Investment Income Covered Distribution
Net investment income of $0.41 per share in Q2 2026, fully covering the base quarterly distribution of $0.36 per share; NII was in line with Q1 results.
Negative Updates
Sharp Decline in NCDL Gross Originations and Fundings
Gross originations at NCDL in Q2 were $12.1M versus $82.9M in Q1 (an ~85% q/q decrease). Gross investment fundings were $24.8M versus $85.4M in Q1 (approximately a 71% q/q decrease). Management noted this was intentional (leverage management and timing), but the drop materially reduced deployment activity for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Investment Income Covered Distribution
Net investment income of $0.41 per share in Q2 2026, fully covering the base quarterly distribution of $0.36 per share; NII was in line with Q1 results.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to maintain its base quarterly dividend of $0.36 (Q3 total distribution declared $0.38 comprising a $0.36 regular and $0.02 supplemental distribution, with $0.05 of excess earnings generated in Q2), a target leverage range of 1.0–1.25x debt-to-equity (current gross/net debt-to-equity 1.29x/1.23x as of 6/30, with a goal to operate toward the upper end), and a continued portfolio mix of roughly 90% first‑lien loans (junior debt ~7.3%, equity ~3.1%); they expect to redeploy repayments/sales (Q2 repayments/sales $67.5m, ~3.4% run rate) into senior middle‑market loans where spreads have stabilized around 475–500bps (weighted average yield on debt/income investments 9.3%), while keeping credit metrics strong (portfolio net leverage 5.2x, interest coverage 2.5x, weighted avg internal risk rating 4.3, watch list ~10.8%, nonaccruals 1.5% FV / 2.7% cost); post‑quarter actions include redeeming CLO III ($297.9m) and tapping $100m of 2030 unsecured notes (bringing unsecured notes to $400m and pro forma cost of debt to SOFR+188bps) and ramping a JV (seeded with ~$150m, target ~$300m within ~12 months, up to $106m total equity commitment, JV leverage ~2x) to be accretive to earnings.Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 138.44M | 201.84M | 186.00M | 144.01M | 46.81M | 39.25M |
| Gross Profit | 80.66M | 171.31M | 111.42M | 86.03M | 23.39M | 29.43M |
| EBITDA | 63.28M | 143.66M | 116.48M | 76.77M | 17.31M | 27.27M |
| Net Income | 46.86M | 65.61M | 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.99B | 2.05B | 2.14B | 1.73B | 1.25B | 820.92M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.00M | 8.55M | 43.25M | 67.39M | 39.27M | 35.19M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 1.12B | 1.11B | 943.94M | 699.77M | 406.37M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.14B | 1.18B | 1.17B | 982.98M | 729.00M | 446.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 848.97M | 875.18M | 970.32M | 747.88M | 524.96M | 374.05M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 113.10M | 194.16M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 113.10M | 194.16M | 136.42M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 0.00 | -433.62M | -442.57M | -452.99M | -429.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -111.35M | -174.98M | 273.06M | 397.65M | 431.93M | 411.70M |
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis
Negative
12.13
Price Trends
12.44
Negative
12.78
Negative
12.82
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
48.39
Neutral
38.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.47, below the 50-day MA of 12.44, and below the 200-day MA of 12.82, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Risk Analysis
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. disclosed 3 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $743.53M | 9.37 | 10.37% | 8.86% | 3.27% | -9.84% | |
72 Outperform | $614.38M | 13.06 | 5.40% | 14.73% | -11.34% | -48.35% | |
70 Outperform | $649.50M | 3.90 | 27.00% | 6.02% | -57.47% | 92.94% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $703.21M | 9.55 | 6.61% | 11.90% | -3.92% | -16.93% | |
63 Neutral | $410.83M | -126.56 | 1.92% | 15.50% | -28.84% | -107.31% | |
60 Neutral | $342.32M | -3.21 | -17.68% | 27.85% | -141.00% | -809.18% |
* Financial Sector Average
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
12.44
-1.76
-12.39%
FDUS
Fidus Investment
19.59
0.74
3.94%
GAIN
Gladstone Investment
16.31
2.96
22.14%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
12.89
-1.95
-13.13%
TCPC
BlackRock TCP Capital
4.08
-1.80
-30.64%
CCAP
Crescent Capital BDC
11.15
-2.19
-16.39%
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Boosts Capital Flexibility
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., a business development company specializing in senior secured lending to private equity-backed U.S. middle market borrowers, reported second-quarter 2026 net investment income of $0.41 per share and a net inc...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Expands 2030 Debt Issuance
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
On July 8, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. and its affiliated adviser, asset manager, and administrator entered into an underwriting agreement with SMBC Nikko Securities America Inc. for an additional $100 million of 6.650% Notes due 2...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Nuveen Churchill Shareholders Reelect Directors at 2026 Meeting
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. held its virtual 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, with a quorum of 25,732,027 shares present or represented by proxy out of 49,387,065 shares outstanding as of the March 31, 2026 record da...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nuveen Churchill Reports Q1 2026 Results, Declares Dividend
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., a NYSE-listed business development company specializing in senior secured loans to private equity-backed U.S. middle market borrowers, reported that as of March 31, 2026 its $2.0 billion portfolio was spread ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.